Basic Strat RoR

[stophon]

If I want to flat bet basic strategy, how should I partition my bankroll to achieve the lowest RoR?

RoR being chance of doubling bankroll before losing it all.

 

[rukus]

if you have a moderate sized bank, say 500 units, playing every hand, flat betting, using basic strategy, you probably have somewhere around 10% chance of doubling your BR before going bust, or conversely, a 90% of going bust before doubling your BR.

the less units in your BR, the higher your chance of doubling, particularly since this game has such a small house edge. so the less number of units your bank has (ie the higher your bet in proportion to your total bankroll), the more likely it is that you double the bank before going broke.

taking this further, if you want to size your bet size to give you the highest chance of doubling your BR, you would bet your whole BR on one hand, so that you would essentially have a 50% chance of doubling before going bust. that is your maximum chance.

 

[KenSmith]

Your question likely needs some clarification.
Lifetime risk of ruin for playing basic strategy (in most games) is 100%.
RoR in any negative game is 100%.

However, it sounds like you are interested in looking at your chance of doubling your bank before going broke. That's going to depend on what fraction of your bet you are risking on each hand.

You'll get the highest probability by taking the most risk. If you go all-in on the first hand, you have roughly a 44% chance of doubling your bankroll. Betting smaller amounts will reduce that, because the house edge will have more time to take its negative effect.

 

[stophon]

Weird, I compute the RoR around 52.5%:grin:

 

[rukus]

Weird, I compute the RoR around 52.5%:grin:

i hope youre joking. if you think its 52.5%, go ahead and bet it all on one hand...

 

[stophon]

You all are smart. I find gambling math so illogical. That means the reverse is true then when you have an advantage right, you want to partition your bankroll into as many units as possible to get the lowest RoR?

 

[rukus]

You all are smart. I find gambling math so illogical. That means the reverse is true then when you have an advantage right, you want to partition your bankroll into as many units as possible to get the lowest RoR?

correct. but when playing with an advantage, most players must then balance RoR with hourly wage (which is affected by the unit's size in dollars).

 

[Sonny]

This article will get you started:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Blackjack_Basic_Strategy_Betting_And_Risk.htm

It doesn't talk about RoR but it will help you understand what the swings will be like for a BS player. From there you will be able to use the RoR calculators on the QFit website.

-Sonny-

 

[iCountNTrack]

You all are smart. I find gambling math so illogical. That means the reverse is true then when you have an advantage right, you want to partition your bankroll into as many units as possible to get the lowest RoR?

There is no lowest RoR per say, it all depends to what you consider an acceptable RoR. Depending on the win rate (units/hand) standard deviation of the your game (house rules, playing and betting strategy) and given the RoR that you accept to play with you can calculate how many units you should have in your bankroll

 

[callipygian]

I find gambling math so illogical.

Use simpler examples if it will help you understand. Instead of playing out a blackjack hand, flip a coin. And instead of having a small house edge, make the house edge very large.

For example, get a whole bunch of pennies, paying yourself 2x your bet when you win and losing 1x your bet when you lose. Start with 100 pennies, and see how often you double your bet when you bet 100 pennies at a time vs. 10 pennies at a time vs. 1 penny at a time.

Then reverse the payout, so that you pay yourself 0.5x your bet when you win and lose 1x your bet when you lose. Bet 100 pennies / 10 pennies / 1 penny at a time and see how often you double.