Basic Strategy: Hard 12 vs. 3

[UnevenSeven]

Hi all, I'm new to BlackJack and to this forum so please bear with me!

My question is about the basic strategy charts for a 4-6 deck game. In it, the recommendation is to HIT on Hard 12 vs 3. However, the recommendation for a Hard 13 vs 3 is to Stand.

Now I don't get it. I read into the above that the your play centers on the dealer going bust, i.e. you are standing on such a low number because the odds, with the current dealer card, are against the dealer i.e. he will bust.

But, isn't this the case whether you have a 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 etc. If the idea of standing on such a low number is that the dealer may go bust (remember the dealer must play all the way to at least 17), then surely the value of your cards are irrelevant and you should just, say, stand if the dealer has, say, 6, whatever the value of your cards.

Am I making sense here?

(I understand that there may be some replies saying that the charts are the mathematically correct way to play, etc. etc. etc. etc, but can someone explain the rationale behind it in plain English)?

To summarise, if you Stand when you have 13 and the dealer has, say 6, why not just stand every time the dealer has 6 whatever the value of your cards?

Thanks and regards

Laurence.

 

[Deathclutch]

Because with a 12 only a ten or face card can bust you. So depending on the count you have a very good chance of improving your hand with a smaller chance of busting. Of course as the count rises you will need to check your indices because at a certain point it is more advantageous to stay on the 12.

Also when the dealer has a 3 it's not set in stone they will bust. I don't have the exact percentage handy but I believe it's somewhere in the 30%-40% range that the dealer will bust with a 3.

The reason you don't hit on the 13 vs 3 or 14 v 3 is because your chance of bettering your hand vs busting has been skewed enough that it is no longer in your advantage to hit.

 

[johndoe]

To summarise, if you Stand when you have 13 and the dealer has, say 6, why not just stand every time the dealer has 6 whatever the value of your cards?

Well, you do, pretty much. More precisely, when the dealer has a 6 and you can't bust, you (usually) get as much money on the table as possible (i.e. double-down).

But why would you ever stay if you're not going to bust? Might as well take a card and try to improve your hand, even if you can't double (w/exception of soft hands.)

 

[daddybo]

Lesser of Evils

Many of the close plays come down to a probabilty of losing less money by choosing option A over option B. Example: In the long run you'll lose less money hitting 12v2 as opposed to standing. (Assuming Basic Strategy).


P.S.
I keep repeating that to myself everytime I draw a 10 on a hard 12.:laugh:

 

[21gunsalute]

Now I don't get it. I read into the above that the your play centers on the dealer going bust, i.e. you are standing on such a low number because the odds, with the current dealer card, are against the dealer i.e. he will bust.

But, isn't this the case whether you have a 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 etc. If the idea of standing on such a low number is that the dealer may go bust (remember the dealer must play all the way to at least 17), then surely the value of your cards are irrelevant and you should just, say, stand if the dealer has, say, 6, whatever the value of your cards.

This misconception is part of the problem. The dealer is not likely to bust if she has a 2-6 up. The dealer will only bust about 43% of the time if she has a 5 or 6 up, and far less than this with a 2-4 up. You're going to lose more hands than you win if you stand on 12-16 against a 2-6. So why not hit? Because you'll lose an even higher % of these hands if you hit them every time.

12 vs 2 or 3 is the only exception to this rule. You'll be marginally better off to hit 12 against a 2 or 3 every time rather than stand. The reason is because only a 10 will bust you and a dealer with a 2 or 3 up has so many outs. That being said, there aren't a lot of cards that are going to help you in this situation. An Ace, 2, 3 or 4 still gives you a stiff hand, so only a 5 through 9 will really help, and a 5 only gives you a 17.

Whenever I get a 12 hand I hope the dealer has a 2 or 3 up, because I absolutely hate standing on 12. I'd rather bust immediately than prolong the agony.

 

[FLASH1296]

Think for a moment.

What is your chance of "busting" with a hand of 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 ?

Yes, that is right. It goes up a little as you go from 12 to 16.

The dealer's chance of "busting" while showing a 2, 3, 4 , 5 , or 6 is at maximum with a 6 or a 5 showing
(41% and 40% respectively) and progressively lower down to the deuce.
Considering ALL dealer hands, the bust rate averages out to 28%

So, if you hit your 16 there are 13 different card ranks that can appear - and on 8 of them you lose - and on other (low) cards
(i.e. Ace, Deuce, 3, 4) you need to consider that you may still lose as you have only a 17, 18, etc.

Even if you draw to 21 you may only "push" the hand.

Remember, the overall average final dealer hand is almost 18.5

 

[nottooshabby]

This is an academic question more than anything else, but is the average winning hand different for SD vs shoes? I thought it was 18.3 for shoes, but may be a little higher for SD, in the 18.6-18.8 range.