Basic Strategy Soft Doubles vs a dealer's 4 card

somtum

somtum

Well-Known Member
Okay, while posting this question I just realized the answer ..so no need to ask.. lol..

But anyways.. in case anyone was pondering this thought..

Why is it that we must double on a (S16 & S15) against a dealer's 4 but just hit on a (S14 & S13) against a dealer's 4 card ?

S16 an A,2,3,4,5 will make a hand
S15 a 2,3,4,5,6 will make a hand
S14 a 3,4,5,6,7 will make a hand
S13 a 4,5,6,7,8 will make a hand

The ratio is 5/13 in all of the soft doubles that you will make a hand. In other words your EV must be the same whether you double a S16, S15, S14 or S13 vs. a 4 even though basic strategy says to hit S13 and S14.

So why do we hit S14, S13 vs. 4 ?

The difference lies in the possibility of being able to take more multiple hits with a S13, S14 than with a S15 or S16.

Therefore hitting a S13 or S14 vs. a dealer 4 must have a higher EV than doubling a S13, S14, S15 or S16 vs. a dealer's 4 card.
 
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rrwoods

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
EDIT: Never mind, I can't read apparently. Somehow I missed the first and last lines of the OP. Moving on... :p
 
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21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
Because there is more to consider than just "making a hand". A more important factor is whether or not the dealer is going to bust. You can have good or decent hits on all your doubles and still lose them or get pushed every time if the dealer doesn't bust. The only sure way of winning a double down is if the dealer busts, and ending up with a hand of 17, 18 or 19 isn't likely to help much.
 
R

Renzey

Well-Known Member
But Have You Noticed

somtum said:
S16 an A,2,3,4,5 will make a hand
S15 a 2,3,4,5,6 will make a hand
S14 a 3,4,5,6,7 will make a hand
S13 a 4,5,6,7,8 will make a hand

The ratio is 5/13 in all of the soft doubles that you will make a hand.
Click to expand...
Have you noticed however, that as soon as you get to S17, it's the other way around. That is, 8 cards out of 13 will make you a hand -- and only 5 will leave you stiff. That weighs heavily in why you should double so much more readily with A/6 and A/7, since after all, the dealer is never really "likely" to bust.

Typical players are universally oblivious to this fact and consequently play so many of their soft doubles "backwards", by doubling with Ace/Tiny vs. Tiny, and standing with A/7 -- the biggest gainer.

When someone at the table asks me if I would double with their A/2 vs. 3, I simply say softly that Ace/Tiny against a Tiny is a bad double.
 
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somtum

somtum

Well-Known Member
Yes, your right about that Renzey.

I'd have to say at least 50% or more of the people I see play their soft doubles backwards.
 
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