Basic Strategy
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Felix Rue-de-Guerre
Well-Known Member
There should never be a dispute about proper basic strategy. There is a single optimal BS for any set of rules you should encounter. Any book in the "Reading List" on this site should clear things up in that department. There are a lot of bad books, so beware.
>>"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is even what do u do???"
This is not a point of Basic Strategy because you are considering a count. I guess It would depend on what count you were using. With Hi-Lo, It's near zero for all rules I have encountered.
Personally, I use -1(Hi-Lo) as an index for this for all games. But 0 would probably work near as well... maybe even +1?.
The reason the books disagree is probably because the EV of changing strategy at any of these counts would probably be negligible. (Math gurus jump in, please)
A much more important question would be this:
"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is +6 what do u do???"
-Felix
>>"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is even what do u do???"
This is not a point of Basic Strategy because you are considering a count. I guess It would depend on what count you were using. With Hi-Lo, It's near zero for all rules I have encountered.
Personally, I use -1(Hi-Lo) as an index for this for all games. But 0 would probably work near as well... maybe even +1?.
The reason the books disagree is probably because the EV of changing strategy at any of these counts would probably be negligible. (Math gurus jump in, please)
A much more important question would be this:
"u have a 13 dealer has a 2. count is +6 what do u do???"
-Felix
Yet another point is that close calls effectively don't matter. You can waste your life away worrying about hitting or standing on 13. v. 2 in a neutral count, and it won't buy you a cup of coffee if you get it right every time. However, forgetting to insure with a max bet out and a huge TC will cost you a Lexus if you keep it up over a lifetime.
Once again I refer to my essay:
(Dead link: http://www.cardcounter.com/Essays/Mistakes.htm)
--Mayor
Once again I refer to my essay:
(Dead link: http://www.cardcounter.com/Essays/Mistakes.htm)
--Mayor
Stealth Bomber
Well-Known Member
8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
I've always been puzzled by this one. Yes, I've heard it and read it a 100,000 times. Yes, I even play it by the book, but I wish I could feel more confident about why. If in fact this is what the computer sims have determined, which no doubt it is, then how about this theoretical situation:
First off, we somehow find a casino that would allow us to split pairs 'til the cows come home. We get a pair of eights, D shows a face. Now we split, ....... whatdayaknow! We keep getting more of these: 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8............ Now, here's the 64k question: Are we making more or less $ by splitting and resplitting these little "countless" type of cards? Are we supposed to feel good as if it is a valuable opportunity as we continue resplitting them again and again against a face?
Two others that bother me, but certainly quite less are: 1) Hitting soft 18 against an Ace. 2) Not doubling 11 against Ace. *Both multi-deck strategy at 0 count, H17. I will admit that if I see a more than average number of 2's or 3's on the table, I will probably just stand on the soft 18. Otherwise, I will play it by the "book".
Maybe I should just accept what the computers have determined. Mortal humans may not even have an answer for this dilemma of mine other than just "pure math". Am I the only A P that fries the brain over the issue presented above? Is it pure horse feathers?
Also, attn: math guru's. What does the TC have to be for the D to go bust most often?
Stealth
I've always been puzzled by this one. Yes, I've heard it and read it a 100,000 times. Yes, I even play it by the book, but I wish I could feel more confident about why. If in fact this is what the computer sims have determined, which no doubt it is, then how about this theoretical situation:
First off, we somehow find a casino that would allow us to split pairs 'til the cows come home. We get a pair of eights, D shows a face. Now we split, ....... whatdayaknow! We keep getting more of these: 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8............ Now, here's the 64k question: Are we making more or less $ by splitting and resplitting these little "countless" type of cards? Are we supposed to feel good as if it is a valuable opportunity as we continue resplitting them again and again against a face?
Two others that bother me, but certainly quite less are: 1) Hitting soft 18 against an Ace. 2) Not doubling 11 against Ace. *Both multi-deck strategy at 0 count, H17. I will admit that if I see a more than average number of 2's or 3's on the table, I will probably just stand on the soft 18. Otherwise, I will play it by the "book".
Maybe I should just accept what the computers have determined. Mortal humans may not even have an answer for this dilemma of mine other than just "pure math". Am I the only A P that fries the brain over the issue presented above? Is it pure horse feathers?
Also, attn: math guru's. What does the TC have to be for the D to go bust most often?
Stealth
Ohio_Jones
Member
A,A vs. 10 showing???
I am also not confident about this one. Perhaps if i could hit, but one card in a negative count? A couple weeks ago i got yelled at for hitting my 2 A's against a dealer's T. I pulled a 3,5 for a push against the D's 20. It was a ten dollar bet, but i felt better pushing then losing 20. I guess this is wrong and goes against all BS that i've seen.
I am also not confident about this one. Perhaps if i could hit, but one card in a negative count? A couple weeks ago i got yelled at for hitting my 2 A's against a dealer's T. I pulled a 3,5 for a push against the D's 20. It was a ten dollar bet, but i felt better pushing then losing 20. I guess this is wrong and goes against all BS that i've seen.
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
I'm no math guru but, 8-8 vs 10 is a losing proposition. You stand and you will lose more times than not. You hit and you will bust most of the time, or catch a low card and still lose to a dealer 20. By splitting, you have a chance to catch a 2 or 3 and then a face. With the 3 you can double down. While it sure seems like you lose everytime you split 8's against the 10, I'm positive that the math shows that you lose less by splitting, which is why basic strategy says to split.
I'm no math guru but, 8-8 vs 10 is a losing proposition. You stand and you will lose more times than not. You hit and you will bust most of the time, or catch a low card and still lose to a dealer 20. By splitting, you have a chance to catch a 2 or 3 and then a face. With the 3 you can double down. While it sure seems like you lose everytime you split 8's against the 10, I'm positive that the math shows that you lose less by splitting, which is why basic strategy says to split.
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Yes, you lose less by splitting ...
Many "lose less" strategies seem wrong, simply because they increase variance (in this case, we are only mildly increasing our EV, but wildly increasing our SD). Mistaking variance for EV is a common error -- for example the "odds" bet at craps takes advantage of this. In particular, plays like 8-8 vs. 10, where our hand is quite likely to lose, makes the increase of variance difficult to stomach.
Here is another example. I was playing single - 0 roulette (!), and I made a red bet and a black bet, at the table minimum. This is one of the cheapest source of comps in the house (well, one can do the same thing at craps, and it's much cheaper). The other players thought I was a fool, as there was no way I could win, but one big way I could lose -- meanwhile they spread their chips in a seemingly random way around the table. They were happy with their much higher variance, watching their stacks rise and fall. I was happy to have my stack stay the same (the 0 never hit). Everyone at the table was playing with the same EV. Most were playing FOR a higher variance, i was playing for a low variance.
Variance and EV are separate entities, and should not be confused.
--Mayor
Yes, you lose less by splitting ...
Many "lose less" strategies seem wrong, simply because they increase variance (in this case, we are only mildly increasing our EV, but wildly increasing our SD). Mistaking variance for EV is a common error -- for example the "odds" bet at craps takes advantage of this. In particular, plays like 8-8 vs. 10, where our hand is quite likely to lose, makes the increase of variance difficult to stomach.
Here is another example. I was playing single - 0 roulette (!), and I made a red bet and a black bet, at the table minimum. This is one of the cheapest source of comps in the house (well, one can do the same thing at craps, and it's much cheaper). The other players thought I was a fool, as there was no way I could win, but one big way I could lose -- meanwhile they spread their chips in a seemingly random way around the table. They were happy with their much higher variance, watching their stacks rise and fall. I was happy to have my stack stay the same (the 0 never hit). Everyone at the table was playing with the same EV. Most were playing FOR a higher variance, i was playing for a low variance.
Variance and EV are separate entities, and should not be confused.
--Mayor
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
READ
the hole card and all your problems will be solved! ;>
the hole card and all your problems will be solved! ;>
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
It is all a loosing proposition. The long run says you will loose less by doubling. For myself, give me a game with surrender and I will be more than willing to sacrifice 50% than risk 200% on a pair of 8's. Of course many places do not offer surrender but in the ones that do, I constantly watch BS players or pretend BS players say things like, that's what the book says to do. Of course if they really read the so called book, they would be surrendering also.
It is all a loosing proposition. The long run says you will loose less by doubling. For myself, give me a game with surrender and I will be more than willing to sacrifice 50% than risk 200% on a pair of 8's. Of course many places do not offer surrender but in the ones that do, I constantly watch BS players or pretend BS players say things like, that's what the book says to do. Of course if they really read the so called book, they would be surrendering also.
Stealth Bomber
Well-Known Member
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
Mayor, I don't really understand how computer sims works. But I assume the fact that we could potentially end up with more 8 splits, is also included in the sim. I'm not sure if I understand you correctly though, are you saying that regardless of however many eights we get for additional splits, we will make more $ if we play it by the book. Or are we just in a defensive mode where we lose less as we continue to unfortunately have to split the eights again and again and again? I need another book to explain more about S D too. The only book I have is BJ For Blood. I need more knowledge.
If in fact we will win more $ by continuously splitting the eights, why not split nines against a face too?
I have an idea you have some simple words to smooth out my phycological wharps. If not, I'll just have to reach for the Xanax bottle.
Stealth
Mayor, I don't really understand how computer sims works. But I assume the fact that we could potentially end up with more 8 splits, is also included in the sim. I'm not sure if I understand you correctly though, are you saying that regardless of however many eights we get for additional splits, we will make more $ if we play it by the book. Or are we just in a defensive mode where we lose less as we continue to unfortunately have to split the eights again and again and again? I need another book to explain more about S D too. The only book I have is BJ For Blood. I need more knowledge.
If in fact we will win more $ by continuously splitting the eights, why not split nines against a face too?
I have an idea you have some simple words to smooth out my phycological wharps. If not, I'll just have to reach for the Xanax bottle.
Stealth
Stealth Bomber
Well-Known Member
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
I usually never get to play a game with surrender. I do think I would consider using it though in this situation. However, my book says not to, except only for early surrender. Need psycho doctors to help a little here please.
Stealth
I usually never get to play a game with surrender. I do think I would consider using it though in this situation. However, my book says not to, except only for early surrender. Need psycho doctors to help a little here please.
Stealth
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Right Question
Many a time the right play calls for an increase in variance for a few cents. Consult your indices for the proper time to stand with 8,8 vs 10. This may help. Not one of the Ill18 mind you, but worth knowing. As the Mayor and those before him point out, an error in play will not kill you. Say you sit there all night long and get one 8,8 vs 10 in your face. Just play the hand the proper way and take it like a man! or woman in Vic's case! ;> Suicide can be fun when you go to pop a cap and you get 3's to go with those 8's.
3's and 8's for all y'all CB'ers out there
Rob
Many a time the right play calls for an increase in variance for a few cents. Consult your indices for the proper time to stand with 8,8 vs 10. This may help. Not one of the Ill18 mind you, but worth knowing. As the Mayor and those before him point out, an error in play will not kill you. Say you sit there all night long and get one 8,8 vs 10 in your face. Just play the hand the proper way and take it like a man! or woman in Vic's case! ;> Suicide can be fun when you go to pop a cap and you get 3's to go with those 8's.
3's and 8's for all y'all CB'ers out there
Rob
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Re: A,A vs. 10 showing???
+2.62 EV for you to splitem and -.47 to hit. The difference is almost 3%. I think that people have to understand what they are throwing away before they do it. Remember all those dinky cars you USED to have? ;>
+2.62 EV for you to splitem and -.47 to hit. The difference is almost 3%. I think that people have to understand what they are throwing away before they do it. Remember all those dinky cars you USED to have? ;>
Stealth Bomber
Well-Known Member
If you had your drathers, what would you do?
Rob: Which would you rather have; assuming the count is Z, 10 million bank roll, one nice big 50k bet, you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or- you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet). In other words; would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or- a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?
Answers from others encouraged too. And the answer is not, TO TAKE THE 10 MILL AND RUN either! LOL)))))
Stealth
Rob: Which would you rather have; assuming the count is Z, 10 million bank roll, one nice big 50k bet, you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or- you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet). In other words; would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or- a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?
Answers from others encouraged too. And the answer is not, TO TAKE THE 10 MILL AND RUN either! LOL
)))))Stealth
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Re: If you had your drathers, what would you do?
Rob: Which would you rather have;
assuming the count is Z,
10 million bank roll,
one nice big 50k bet,
you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or-
you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet).
In other words;
would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or-
a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?
Standing with 8,8,3 vs 10 up gives you a .37 edge.
Doubling 8,3 vs 10 gives you a 1.62% edge.
Hitting 8 vs 10 -2.6%
BUT, you do not get this choice until you split those 8's. It's like asking the question should I wear a condom -or- get an HIV test -or- see how I feel in six years then decide.
Wear a condom, and split those 8's!
Rob: Which would you rather have;
assuming the count is Z,
10 million bank roll,
one nice big 50k bet,
you have either a pair of eights and caught a 3 on a hit -or-
you split the eights and caught a 3 on one of them (the other hand of a 1 card eight hasn't been played yet).
In other words;
would you rather have a 19 against the face and be done with it -or-
a two card 11 on one hand, waiting for a decision and a 1 card 8, waiting for a decision on the other?
Standing with 8,8,3 vs 10 up gives you a .37 edge.
Doubling 8,3 vs 10 gives you a 1.62% edge.
Hitting 8 vs 10 -2.6%
BUT, you do not get this choice until you split those 8's. It's like asking the question should I wear a condom -or- get an HIV test -or- see how I feel in six years then decide.
Wear a condom, and split those 8's!
Abraham de Moivre
Well-Known Member
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
The problem is you are thinking you win more by splitting the 8s. You don't. You LOSE less by splitting, not win more.
Here is how it works with some made up numbers (the real ones are much, much closer, like .01%)
Player A gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He properly splits each time, and gets kicked in the head.
7 Losing splits + 2 winning split = 10 units down.
Player B gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He plays it as 16 and hits or stands as the mood strikes him.
16 vs T ain't a great place to be. Wins 2, loses 7 = 5 units down.
But look at idiot Player A, Player B thinks. I have only lost half as much as him.
8,8 vs T comes up again and he stands since the count is positive, and wins again!
net loss for Player B after 10 hands = 4 units down.
Now on that 10th hand, Player A splits them again. And again. And again. Then low an behold, he gets a 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. Then the dealer BUSTS! Player A has just won 8 units.
net loss for Player A after 10 hands = 2 units down.
So who is the idiot now? Player B gets down as far as 5 units, and in the long run winds up with a 4 unit loss.
Player A gets down as far as 10 units (ouch), but in the long run winds up with just a 2 unit loss.
The problem is you are thinking you win more by splitting the 8s. You don't. You LOSE less by splitting, not win more.
Here is how it works with some made up numbers (the real ones are much, much closer, like .01%)
Player A gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He properly splits each time, and gets kicked in the head.
7 Losing splits + 2 winning split = 10 units down.
Player B gets 8,8 vs 10 nine times. He plays it as 16 and hits or stands as the mood strikes him.
16 vs T ain't a great place to be. Wins 2, loses 7 = 5 units down.
But look at idiot Player A, Player B thinks. I have only lost half as much as him.
8,8 vs T comes up again and he stands since the count is positive, and wins again!
net loss for Player B after 10 hands = 4 units down.
Now on that 10th hand, Player A splits them again. And again. And again. Then low an behold, he gets a 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. And another 3. Double Down. Then the dealer BUSTS! Player A has just won 8 units.
net loss for Player A after 10 hands = 2 units down.
So who is the idiot now? Player B gets down as far as 5 units, and in the long run winds up with a 4 unit loss.
Player A gets down as far as 10 units (ouch), but in the long run winds up with just a 2 unit loss.
Ohio_Jones
Member
Thanks Rob
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Re: 8 ,8 vs. 10 showing???
My sims tell me to surrender with TC>0, split otherwise. This is for a shoe game. I love the 0 indices, because you will be playing them one way half of the time and the other way the other half, makes you look like an inconsistent player. Like hard 12 vs. 4, that one always gets hoots and howls.
My sims tell me to surrender with TC>0, split otherwise. This is for a shoe game. I love the 0 indices, because you will be playing them one way half of the time and the other way the other half, makes you look like an inconsistent player. Like hard 12 vs. 4, that one always gets hoots and howls.