I recently became annoyed with the low house edge obtained through card counting in blackjack so I decided to have a look at other games and try to see would could be done.
Obviously my first stop was baccarat, I did both calculations and sims and reached the same conclusion as everyone else, that you can hope to achieve an edge of about 0.1% on banker at the most extreme of times.
I was at the casino once watch the giant wheel ( I dont know if you have these in america). Its has 52 divisions. They are divided up into portions paying 1:1, 3:1, 5:1, 11:1, 23:1 and two seperate 47:1 giving a house edge of 4/52 (7.69%).
I watched a spin and it stopped 2 pegs off 47:1 square. I the next spin was 1 peg off the same square. This caught my attention big time. I counted the next spin it was almost exactally 6 revolutions, this time stopping 1 peg after the 47:1. I watched several more spins and concoluded that the standard deviation must have been within +/- 6 pegs each side of about slightly less than 6 revolutions. I bet on 23:1 and 47:1 squares. I didn't land any but considering variance I was very close to making a large profit.
I then did the math on it and if you watch enough spins of the same dealer and get the standard deviation you can work out when its profitable to bet. Basically if the standard deviations is 18 pegs or less you can bet on 47:1 square that will be within +/-10 pegs of the expected position. The player edge is about 4% in that case. If the standard deviation is less then player edge increases rapidly, up to hundreds of a percent.
I went to the casino and long some data. Most spinners were terrible. Standard deviations were typically 1 to 2 complete revolitions. I needed 18/52 revolutions. I did eventually see a couple of spinner who did this. Going on my results I would have bet about 80% of the time on these spinners winning about 3% of each spin, giving me a house nice player advantage on the 47:1 squares. I will post the exact math data up if anyone is interested.
I have not yet figured out any easy way to work out the standard deviation and average quickly enough in my head or with use of paper and pen. It the casino i just wrote down the revolutions for each spin and where the 47:1 was and ended up in relation to starting position.
I am guessing that you could estimate the standard deviation, but you would always need to calculate average exactally.
has anyone else done this before? I would like to compare my results. I am thinking I can use my mobile phone to calculate since you dont sit at the table you can use phones etc. But if you got caughts they could probably say you were computer assisted gambling and you'd get in trouble.
Obviously my first stop was baccarat, I did both calculations and sims and reached the same conclusion as everyone else, that you can hope to achieve an edge of about 0.1% on banker at the most extreme of times.
I was at the casino once watch the giant wheel ( I dont know if you have these in america). Its has 52 divisions. They are divided up into portions paying 1:1, 3:1, 5:1, 11:1, 23:1 and two seperate 47:1 giving a house edge of 4/52 (7.69%).
I watched a spin and it stopped 2 pegs off 47:1 square. I the next spin was 1 peg off the same square. This caught my attention big time. I counted the next spin it was almost exactally 6 revolutions, this time stopping 1 peg after the 47:1. I watched several more spins and concoluded that the standard deviation must have been within +/- 6 pegs each side of about slightly less than 6 revolutions. I bet on 23:1 and 47:1 squares. I didn't land any but considering variance I was very close to making a large profit.
I then did the math on it and if you watch enough spins of the same dealer and get the standard deviation you can work out when its profitable to bet. Basically if the standard deviations is 18 pegs or less you can bet on 47:1 square that will be within +/-10 pegs of the expected position. The player edge is about 4% in that case. If the standard deviation is less then player edge increases rapidly, up to hundreds of a percent.
I went to the casino and long some data. Most spinners were terrible. Standard deviations were typically 1 to 2 complete revolitions. I needed 18/52 revolutions. I did eventually see a couple of spinner who did this. Going on my results I would have bet about 80% of the time on these spinners winning about 3% of each spin, giving me a house nice player advantage on the 47:1 squares. I will post the exact math data up if anyone is interested.
I have not yet figured out any easy way to work out the standard deviation and average quickly enough in my head or with use of paper and pen. It the casino i just wrote down the revolutions for each spin and where the 47:1 was and ended up in relation to starting position.
I am guessing that you could estimate the standard deviation, but you would always need to calculate average exactally.
has anyone else done this before? I would like to compare my results. I am thinking I can use my mobile phone to calculate since you dont sit at the table you can use phones etc. But if you got caughts they could probably say you were computer assisted gambling and you'd get in trouble.
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and it apparently worked for you. i like it!
