Stealth Bomber
Well-Known Member
What does the T C have to be resulting in a D bust most often?
I know it is on the + side but maybe not too far. ???
Stealth
I know it is on the + side but maybe not too far. ???
Stealth
Best count to result in a dealer bust?
- Thread starter Stealth Bomber
- Start date
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Two perspectives from Griffin
Ah, the card counter's paradox! Here's what Grifin has to say about card counters:
"they want all fives to be out of the deck before they raise their bets and then they want the dealer to show one as up card! There is an apparent paradox in that the cards whos removal most favors the player before the deal are also the cards whose appearance as dealer's up card most favors the player."
On page 147 (elephant edition) he concludes that "The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
Depending on what count system you use and what values it assigns to cards (and which cards it does not assign values to) you will end up will various TCs for this density. Also, such a density of tens could describe many different deck compositions. From a strictly Thorp-esque (or would it be Thorp-ian? Maybe that's another post altogether!) tens/nontens standpoint, 41% is the number you are looking for.
However, if you are looking for the count with the highest player advantage the number is different:
"The player's advantage, as a function of increasing ten density, behaves in a similar fashion... It reaches it's zenith (almost 13%) when 73% of the cards are tens."
As the density grows higher, the player's advantage begins to return to zero since a deck composed of only tens would result in successive pushes.
-Sonny-
Ah, the card counter's paradox! Here's what Grifin has to say about card counters:
"they want all fives to be out of the deck before they raise their bets and then they want the dealer to show one as up card! There is an apparent paradox in that the cards whos removal most favors the player before the deal are also the cards whose appearance as dealer's up card most favors the player."
On page 147 (elephant edition) he concludes that "The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
Depending on what count system you use and what values it assigns to cards (and which cards it does not assign values to) you will end up will various TCs for this density. Also, such a density of tens could describe many different deck compositions. From a strictly Thorp-esque (or would it be Thorp-ian? Maybe that's another post altogether!) tens/nontens standpoint, 41% is the number you are looking for.
However, if you are looking for the count with the highest player advantage the number is different:
"The player's advantage, as a function of increasing ten density, behaves in a similar fashion... It reaches it's zenith (almost 13%) when 73% of the cards are tens."
As the density grows higher, the player's advantage begins to return to zero since a deck composed of only tens would result in successive pushes.
-Sonny-
Re: Two perspectives from Griffin
"The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
To begin with there are 16 tens out of 52 cards for 30.76% tens.
Now, if we just remove non T's, then the 41% threshold is reached when 13 non-T's have been removed (16/39 = 41.03%).
If you wanted to develop a perfect count just for this facet alone it would be:
Non-T = +1
Ten = -2.44
and on single deck ... you would take the wager when the RC >= +13 (as above).
--Mayor
"The dealer's probability of busting, as a function of ten density, appears to maximize (.295) with about 41% tens in the deck."
To begin with there are 16 tens out of 52 cards for 30.76% tens.
Now, if we just remove non T's, then the 41% threshold is reached when 13 non-T's have been removed (16/39 = 41.03%).
If you wanted to develop a perfect count just for this facet alone it would be:
Non-T = +1
Ten = -2.44
and on single deck ... you would take the wager when the RC >= +13 (as above).
--Mayor
Rob McGarvey
Well-Known Member
Re: Two perspectives from Griffin
If this bet exists, what is the pay off structure? Is it +EV?
If this bet exists, what is the pay off structure? Is it +EV?