Bet when count falls?

[Dopple]

I have read it is best to bet when the count starts to fall as opposed to when it is rising. Given well shuffled decks you should never know when it is going to start falling but I have noticed sometimes the count will rise to a certain level for several shoes before it starts to fall.

I have found it helpful to wait until it stops rising if the small cards seem to just keep coming out with regularity.

In theory of course you would bet more at any advantageous count but I like to get a feel for the rhythm of the rise and fall before I dump alot of chip down.

 

[zengrifter]

I have read it is best to bet when the count starts to fall as opposed to when it is rising. Given well shuffled decks you should never know when it is going to start falling but I have noticed sometimes the count will rise to a certain level for several shoes before it starts to fall.

I have found it helpful to wait until it stops rising if the small cards seem to just keep coming out with regularity.

In theory of course you would bet more at any advantageous count but I like to get a feel for the rhythm of the rise and fall before I dump alot of chip down.

Waiting for the count to fall is strictly for CAMOFLAUGE, otherwise it LOWERS your EV. zg

 

[EasyRhino]

Semi-correct in that it's ideal to be playing out hands where the count is falling, having already placed a big bet in advance of the hand. (then a falling count would mean you're getting the big cards).

If you're waiting to bet while the count is falling, it's like catching a javelin. you don't know when it's going to come down.

Look at it this way. If the count rises a little, then there's a small chance that you'll get the big cards, so you bet a little more. If it rises more, then the chance is bigger, so you bet more. If the count drops, then the chance is reduced, so you bet less. You don't know which way the count is going to go on your particular shoe, so just go with the odds.

Note that if you're spend too much time obsessing over the results of individual hands, this will drive you insane. You'll get cases where you win a slightly elevated bet, but the count rises and you double your bet, only to lose it, wipe out your previous gain, and even have the count drop to where you're making a minimum bet with no immediate prospect to win that money back. This is why it's vital not to obsess over the results of individual hands

 

[Dopple]

I look at lifetime earning vs. individual hands.

The more years you play the closer to your true earnings you get.

I appreciate your feedback.

While I have had losing streaks I also remember the winning ones and with time they are guaranteed to come again.

 

[aslan]

I agree with everything that's been said here. It's a catch 22: Yes, it is best to bet when the count is high and falling (because that means that the big cards are coming out), but it is impossible to know when the count will start falling. Therefore, forget about it--when the count goes high, bet it. Don't wait for it to fall, unless you're trying to camoflauge your betting patterns, as zg said. It will cost you EV. Sometimes when the count goes high, it will keep going higher, most likely costing you because the low cards are still coming out. This phenomenon can occur until the end of the shoe, and when it does, you likely will lose! Happily, this does not occur that often. Usually you either a) lose some and win some, b) lose some and win more, or c) win most, if not all. True, sometimes you will lose as the winning cards fall all around you, but not on you. Remember, the odds are only slightly in your favor, but in your favor nevertheless. Long run. Long run. Long run. Counting is not an instant gratification activity.