Re: carnival games *LINK*
It is an unfair comparison to advocate an avoidance to play these type of 'carnival' games i.e. 'Blackjack Switch' and use 'BJ pays 6/5' as a comparison.
BJ Switch was invented as a serious proposition for players who want to play a fair game as well as for those players who were looking for a fun alternatve to regular Blackjack.
It is difficult to get acceptance, by casinos, for a game which has a low house edge. Their main arguement being 'Why should we pay for a game that will not make us more money ?'. Obviously, 'BJ Switch' will not compete with the play at an established game i.e. regular Blackjack until it has established itself fully as a regular alternative available in numerous casinos.
This is now the case in Moscow where the game has grown from being in just 1 casino, 10 months ago, to now being available in over 20 casinos in that area. I hope that the same expansion will happen in the USA but I also realise that the clientele are different.
Personally I would rather that Advantage Players avoided the game, in it's early stages, as this may have an effect on the casino's view as to whether to keep the game in as a viable alternative. Once the game has been established then it will be more secure and will be able to withstand a 'hit' by Advantage Players (and this was the case in Moscow when very player-friendly rules were used).
Most Advantage Players will avoid the game for 2 reasons :-
1) They do not know the strategy of the game.
2) They are not aware of the house edge but will presume that it is high (as with most other carnival games).
Some strategies have been posted on the Internet mainly due to it's presence on the Playtech Internet sites. However, the land-based version is slightly different and will therefore involve slight changes in strategy. As far as I am aware, I am the only person (along with Karel Janecek) who has the critical indices for the game, and, for resons stated earlier, I do not wish to release them at this time.
The game at The 4 Queens is a FAIR PROPOSITION - it's not another 'Super Fun 21' or 'BJ Pays a whopping 6/5' style of game. However, the casino must make a reasonable edge on the game to avoid either changing the rules or (worse of all) removing the game completely. If it was hammered in it's early stages by counters reacting to the fact that it may not make it to other casinos, then this will have a very adverse effect on it's expansion. It's a bit of a 'catch 22' - early stages are the best time to catch a new game when casinos are naive towards the strategy but it's also the worse time to catch the game as it will effect it's installation potential into other casinos across America.
Also, eventually there will be a casino that wishes to attract more customers on the game and will possibly employ even more favourable rules as a result.
So, the house edge of the game at The 4 Queens ???
For perfect play it is 0.22% and although this would require perfect 'Switching' (which is unlikely to be done) it is pretty good for a multi-deck game. In fact players would be around 1% better off playing BJ Switch than the other 2 carnival games that I mentioned previously.
The reason that the house edge can be so low is that the 'Switch' gives another 'weapon' to the average player for him to shoot himself in the foot with. 'Switching' errors, along with playing errors, will allow the casino to enjoy at least their usual hold on BJ Switch as they do with regular Blackjack, despite the fact that a knowledgeable Advantage Player may be better off.
So it's a fine balance, especially at this early stage. Too many clever players will deteriorate the expected edge that the average players will give back. Let the game develop and then take your pick from the casinos that have the game in - it will be best for both worlds in the end.
Best regards
Geoff
