BlackJack Risk Manager 2002

[jimbiggs]

Somewhere there's a thread where zg recommends BJRM and Barfarkel recommends it in his book. So I followed the expert advice and purchased it. I found out that the way I was betting wasn't going to win much. My win/100 was only $4 and my ROR was high for my BR. So I used the BJRM to figure out the optimal betting spread for a $10K bankroll for the shoe game I play(even though I don't have that much, I can add later). I couldn't beleive it. Bet $50 at +2? $90 at +3? I though that was crazy. I normally don't raise my bets that high unless the count is +4 or higher. I decided to try it by deviding my bets between two spots.

Last night I started off by winning $200 in my first shoe even though the count never went past +3. I wonged in and out of shoes many times. A lot of my wainting bets were $0. Wonged in at +1, out at -1. Then the battle started. From being up $200, I ended up being down $700. I couldn't win any big bets with high counts. I kept at it and fought back to being down $500. That's when I switched casinos. So I'm driving to the other casino cursing ZG, Barfakel, and thinking that John Auston must be full of sh*t.

The next casino was a lot less crowded and had better rules. I stayed with the same spread $10, $15, $50, $90, $130. I bought in for $200 and never looked back. It took me about four hours to get back the $500 I lost in the first casino. Then in my last hour I won another $500. A total of $1K. So I came home up $500. It was awesome.

This is probably common knowledge amoung you guys, but I found out that I had more success at high counts when there were less players at the table. With six other players, at a high count it seemed like getting good cards was a crapshoot. But I had a couple of shoes go to a running count of +20 after two decks with only one other player at the table. These shoes seemed to last forever and I feel that I had a better chance of getting good cards when I didn't have to share them with so many other players.

So thanks ZG and Barfarkel for your recommendations. And thanks to John Auston for the great software. Slowly, but surely, I am learning more and more. It's good that we have this website to share our experiences and people like ZG and Ken to share expert advice. Thanks again.

 

[zengrifter]

Somewhere there's a thread where zg recommends BJRM and Barfarkel recommends it in his book. So I followed the expert advice and purchased it. I found out that the way I was betting wasn't going to win much. My win/100 was only $4 and my ROR was high for my BR. So I used the BJRM to figure out the optimal betting spread for a $10K bankroll for the shoe game I play(even though I don't have that much, I can add later). I couldn't beleive it. Bet $50 at +2? $90 at +3? I though that was crazy. I normally don't raise my bets that high unless the count is +4 or higher. I decided to try it by deviding my bets between two spots.

Last night I started off by winning $200 in my first shoe even though the count never went past +3. I wonged in and out of shoes many times. A lot of my wainting bets were $0. Wonged in at +1, out at -1. Then the battle started. From being up $200, I ended up being down $700. I couldn't win any big bets with high counts. I kept at it and fought back to being down $500. That's when I switched casinos. So I'm driving to the other casino cursing ZG, Barfakel, and thinking that John Auston must be full of sh*t.

The next casino was a lot less crowded and had better rules. I stayed with the same spread $10, $15, $50, $90, $130. I bought in for $200 and never looked back. It took me about four hours to get back the $500 I lost in the first casino. Then in my last hour I won another $500. A total of $1K. So I came home up $500. It was awesome.

This is probably common knowledge amoung you guys, but I found out that I had more success at high counts when there were less players at the table. With six other players, at a high count it seemed like getting good cards was a crapshoot. But I had a couple of shoes go to a running count of +20 after two decks with only one other player at the table. These shoes seemed to last forever and I feel that I had a better chance of getting good cards when I didn't have to share them with so many other players.

So thanks ZG and Barfarkel for your recommendations. And thanks to John Auston for the great software. Slowly, but surely, I am learning more and more. It's good that we have this website to share our experiences and people like ZG and Ken to share expert advice. Thanks again.

Ha ha that was fun... last night Jimbiggs became a card counter! Mikeaber YOU are next!

When there are two or more OTHER spots in play split to two hands on your +count bets and add 50% more$$ overall divided between the two. The likelyhood of winning your bigger-bet hands at more crowded tables is NOT reduced, but your frequency of money bets IS reduced. So think of the "pigs in the trough" analogy and use two hands to shove your snout in deeper in those situations.

With your "virtual" 10k BR your max bet should be two hands of $75, for the time being. zg

 

[FrankieT]

Here is the game... one deck, double on 10 or 11, no doubling after split, hit soft 17.

Ok Zengrifter, lets say I use your bet spread (1+ $15, 2+ $30, 3+ 60$....8+=$210), obviously i'd need a huge bank roll to (like $21,000?)minimize the risk of ruin playing with these high bets. But assuming I get this bank roll, how much will I average each hour with this bet spread, given that I will bet every single hand, no mid shoe entry or skipping out on neg counts.

Oh yeah, also assuming that the one $15 table they have there averages about 4 to 5 players at any given time and i'd be using the zen count

 

[Mikeaber]

Shucks

Aw ZG, I'm working on it. Got my butt kicked with it last night when I lost most of my higher spread bets on hands where I had a better than average chance of winning them, but I'm playing with such peanuts that I can afford to see these swings. It'll make those high tenth spread bet losses a bit easier to endure .

I will say this...I sure got a funny look from the dealer when I took insurance on a +3 count (6-deck shoe) and got the push with it. I NEVER took insurance before I started counting and they knew it!

 

[KenSmith]

I will say this...I sure got a funny look from the dealer when I took insurance on a +3 count (6-deck shoe) and got the push with it. I NEVER took insurance before I started counting and they knew it!

I remember having these same kinds of experiences when I first added indexes to my play. I had been a solid basic strategy player for quite some time at the casino nearest home, and several of the dealers knew me by then.

When I sometimes started hitting 12 vs 4,5,6, taking insurance, and standing with stiffs against dealer high cards, I really got some unusual looks!

I sometimes have similar situations arise these days, when another player at the table knows who I am (pretty rare, but it happens). Since this website is home of the Basic Strategy Engine, I catch some grief for deviating from it.

 

[FrankieT]

Try not shaving for a couple days and come to the casino smelling like vodka, incorporate some acting into it and the heat will be gone in no time

The casino wants stupid losers give em what they want (just not in your play decisions lol). Oh yeah, if you really want to lose the heat and look like one of the suckers, go to a slot machine that's right in front of the BJ table you want to play at, play for a couple of minutes before you move to BJ (only wager the bear minimum amount because you just want to look stupid, not be stupid lol).

(Sorry to all those people who here who like to play slots, but someone has to break it to you, you might as well use your money as toilet paper )

 

[Barfarkel]

Also

When there are two or more OTHER spots in play split to two hands on your +count bets and add 50% more$$ overall divided between the two. The likelyhood of winning your bigger-bet hands at more crowded tables is NOT reduced, but your frequency of money bets IS reduced. So think of the "pigs in the trough" analogy and use two hands to shove your snout in deeper in those situations.

With your "virtual" 10k BR your max bet should be two hands of $75, for the time being. zg

Are you setting BJRM to Full Kelly? Most pros I know use 1/3rd Kelly or 1/4th Kelly - usually they don't even go to half-Kelly optimal bets. Otherwise it's too risky long term.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

 

[Canceler]

Here's one angle...

I will say this...I sure got a funny look from the dealer when I took insurance on a +3 count (6-deck shoe) and got the push with it. I NEVER took insurance before I started counting and they knew it!

If the count is high enough to take insurance, it's also high enough that you have one of your larger bets out, right? So just explain that you're getting smarter in your old age, and have decided that while insurance isn't worth screwing around with for your smaller bets, it is for your larger bets.

 

[Mikeaber]

If the count is high enough to take insurance, it's also high enough that you have one of your larger bets out, right? So just explain that you're getting smarter in your old age, and have decided that while insurance isn't worth screwing around with for your smaller bets, it is for your larger bets.

I didn't have to say anything Canceler. The dealer hollered at the Pit Boss and said "The Frog is taking insurance!" They saw the much larger than my normal bet and the Pit Boss commented that she guessed I got scared. I just smiled and tried to look timid.

You've got to remember that I've played this game for years as entertainment. I've cut up at the table as much as most...gotten snot slingin' knee-wobblin' comode hugging' drunk and spouted off decisions and advise based on Basic Strategy like a some sort of recording. I've brought "lucky charms" to the table. One was a heavy five-pointed 3-D "star" that I could put on top of a stack of chips and spin. It would spin forever because it was solid brass. Had more than one pit boss tell me to get it off the table (they thought it was a shiner!) A couple of months ago, during a bad streak of luck (okay, negative variance!), I pulled out a little peuter Frog and sat it on top of my chipstack. They've called me "Frog" since that night.

But what I initially stated and Ken expounded upon, it does make the pit crew and other players look at you kinda funny when for the past umpteen years, they've gotten to know your play so well, that you could leave your chipstack at the table and let them play it for you! Then you come along and make a play that you've advised others NEVER to make!

Fortunately, most of the critters locally do not think it possible to count and capitalize on a 6-deck shoe.

 

[jimbiggs]

Are you setting BJRM to Full Kelly? Most pros I know use 1/3rd Kelly or 1/4th Kelly - usually they don't even go to half-Kelly optimal bets. Otherwise it's too risky long term.

Cheers,

Barfarkel

Hi Barfarkel. Great book.

I was using full kelly. The spread I was using has a win/100 of $12.20 and a ROR of 18.80%. I knew this was high risk, but didn't know I could do anything about it. After reading your post, I tried swithing to half kelly and then adjusting for the $10 minimum bets. The win/100 dropped to $4.20 and the ROR is at 17.44%. Seems like a big loss in potential win for a small drop in ROR. Am I looking at this wrong? Is there any other way I can tweek the numbers?

I know I could be limiting my play to better games, but in southern Cali, that would probably mean not playing at all.

One thing I haven't figured out yet is the "Take a Random Walk" feature. I'll have to work on that later.

Thanks for any help you can offer.

 

[zengrifter]

I sometimes have similar situations arise these days, when another player at the table knows who I am (pretty rare, but it happens). Since this website is home of the Basic Strategy Engine, I catch some grief for deviating from it.

I preach BS at the table sometimes and then when I make a deviate play everyone challenges me - I tell'em I recommend BS, "but I don't follow it myself!" And then everyone thinks I'm full of BS! zg

 

[zengrifter]

Are you setting BJRM to Full Kelly? Most pros I know use 1/3rd Kelly or 1/4th Kelly - usually they don't even go to half-Kelly optimal bets. Otherwise it's too risky long term.

Barfy is very 'risk-averse!' zg

 

[zengrifter]

I was using full kelly. The spread I was using has a win/100 of $12.20 and a ROR of 18.80%.

20% RoR is acceptable -IF- you are prepared to cut your bets in half if/when your BR drops to half - and then your overall RoR isn't 20% - its more like 5%. zg