Buying an Ace

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shadroch

Well-Known Member
You are at a table and a player with a $10 is reluctant to split his Aces.
You offer to buy one of them off of him. Whats the maximum you can offer him and still have a positive expecation?
Does anyone know of a chart with this type of information?
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
Isn't an Ace vs. anything a +EV situation (barring another Ace in a S17 game)?
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My question is at what point is it not EV moneywise. Buying an Ace for $10 with a $10 bet certainly is,but is paying $15 to win $10 still a good bet? How about $11? $11.50? See what I'm trying to find out?
 
nightspirit

nightspirit

Well-Known Member
sorry

Now I understand. Let´s take A,A vs. 5 for example. Your expected value is 0.6339. With a ten dollar bet you can win $ 16.34.
So when you buy his $ 10 bet for $ 16.35 you got a negative expection.
Hope thats right...
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
But with AA vs 5,your expected value comes from splitting the aces. What would the EV of A vs 5 be,taking into account that you will draw only one card,and be paid even money on a 2 card 21? It gets a bit complicated,no?
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
The EV for one split ace is half the EV of both split aces. If two split aces are worth 0.6339 then having one split ace is worth about 0.32. For a $10 bet your EV would be $13.17. To buy this bet for anything more than $2 (or 20% of whatever the bet is) would be pointless in my opinion.

-Sonny-
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
The EV for one split ace is half the EV of both split aces. If two split aces are worth 0.6339 then having one split ace is worth about 0.32. For a $10 bet your EV would be $13.17. To buy this bet for anything more than $2 (or 20% of whatever the bet is) would be pointless in my opinion.

-Sonny-
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I assume you mean a 20% premium over the cost of the bet,not 20% of the bet,yes? So you'd go up to $12 on a $10 bet?
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
I assume you mean a 20% premium over the cost of the bet,not 20% of the bet,yes? So you'd go up to $12 on a $10 bet?
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Right. I would be willing to give the player up to a 20% "finder's fee" in addition to the price of the bet. Since my $10 bet is going to net $13.20 in profit, I wouldn’t mind giving up $12 for the opportunity, although I would definitely start the bid lower than that. :devil:

[edit] Note that these numbers are only for A,A vs. 5. The EV will be different for each dealer upcard [edit]

-Sonny-
 
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nightspirit

nightspirit

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
Right. I would be willing to give the player up to a 20% "finder's fee" in addition to the price of the bet. Since my $10 bet is going to net $13.20 in profit, I wouldn’t mind giving up $12 for the opportunity, although I would definitely start the bid lower than that. :devil:

-Sonny-
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Thank you for your clarification. I was really on the wrong track.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
nightspirit said:
Thank you for your clarification. I was really on the wrong track.
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You were on the right track. You were correct that the EV will be different for each dealer upcard, and you found the correct EV for that hand (A,A vs.5). Your only mistake was not dividing the EV by two since it is for two hands (assuming aces cannot be resplit). Your analysis is correct if you fix that one EV. :)

-Sonny-
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
So,in the case of A,A- you would find the relative ev of that against the dealers upcard and divide in half. Simple enough. Thanks,all
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
So,in the case of A,A- you would find the relative ev of that against the dealers upcard and divide in half. Simple enough. Thanks,all
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Right. Find the EV, divide by 2, add 1, then multiply by the bet size.

For example, the EV for A,A vs. 6 is 0.68. Divide by 2 (0.68 / 2 = 0.34) to get the value of the ace you want to buy. Add 1 (1 + 0.34 = 1.34) to get the ROI of that ace. Then multiply that by the bet size ($10 * 1.34 = $13.40) to get the “market value” of the ace. Use your own judgment to establish a price for the ace (in my case, no more than $12).

-Sonny-
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
Okay.
Now,in the real world what would your first offer be?
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Ah, now we get into the issue of certainty equivalence. How much is making the bet worth to me? That depends on the size of the bet I am buying.

For a small bet like $10-$25 I would first offer to buy the hand at face value. If they refuse I might offer half of the EV. If they still refuse then I would just give up. I’m not going to haggle with some ploppy just to get an extra $2 in EV.

Now if it was a reasonable bet ($50-$250) then I would offer 10-25% of the EV right off the bat. Then I’d go up to 50%, then give up. I don’t want to give away too much profit. But at $250 or more I would be willing to give up 75% of the EV if I had to.

Although, knowing how to close a deal will often get you a good rate on those scavenger hands.

-Sonny-
 
M

Mr. T

Well-Known Member
Shadroch, don't do it.

It is too Mercenary.
You may gain a dollar or two but your self esteem will suffer and the other players will see you as a hustler or worse.
I have in the past bought over some other players bet when they chose to take even money when they have BJ and the dealer has an Ace. The Wizard of odds says you get a 3.8% advantage over the house doing this. But nowadays I would only do it when I double down but the player behind me decide not to do so, then I would double down for him.
 
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