Calculating probabilites

Reachy

Member
Hi

I was wondering if there are any resources available that can tell me what the probability of hitting until you get to certain specific values are? For example if I want to know the probability of hitting to 18 or greater and my starting hand value was 10 how would I figure that out? I know the probability of hitting it in 1 card - assuming an infinite deck the probability of hitting 18 is 1/13 or 7.69%. What I'd like to know is what the probability of hitting to 18 or greater is when I need to take multiple hits. Of course this is just an example of the sort of calculation I want to do and in fact I know half of the answer. I can figure "hit until X or greater" probabilites for values where the value I want to hit to is 9 or less greater than my current hand value. For example, the probability of hitting to at least 18 and not busting with a starting hard 10 is 51.7%. That is the probability of hitting from 10 to 18 in as many hits as it takes = 12.92% multiplied by 4 because including 18 there are 4 non-busting values that will achieve my goal. I can't though figure the answers for values of 10 or greater because the damn Ace complicates things and the multiple T's throw me. Can anybody point me in the right direction? Are there any tables for this sort of thing? What about software?

Appreciate any help you can offer.

Cheers

Reachy
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
I have the dealer values for percentages that dealer gets each number (17 through 21) and % of time he busts, and also the % of time he draws what number of cards etc. I have it at work and will get it tomorrow because i can't find it on my home computer right now.
 

dacium

Well-Known Member
BJ: 4.748948800396E-002 (4.75%)
21: 7.287408707138E-002 (7.29%)
20: 1.795273038237E-001 (17.95%)
19: 1.336847392869E-001 (13.37%)
18: 1.392577712672E-001 (13.93%)
17: 1.452452688763E-001 (14.52%)
BUST: 2.819213416707E-001 (28.19%)
===================================
Total: 1.000000000000E+000 100.00%)
======================================================================
Draw to 02 cards: 3.489982686124E-001 (34.90%)
Draw to 03 cards: 4.399910638060E-001 (44.00%)
Draw to 04 cards: 1.728150072285E-001 (17.28%)
Draw to 05 cards: 3.397227752736E-002 (3.40%)
Draw to 06 cards: 3.923790808806E-003 (0.39%)
Draw to 07 cards: 2.858187129712E-004 (0.03%)
Draw to 08 cards: 1.337747362422E-005 (0.00%)
Draw to 09 cards: 3.894544883024E-007 (0.00%)
Draw to 10 cards: 6.329263940300E-009 (0.00%)
Draw to 11 cards: 4.646248120918E-011 (0.00%)
Draw to 12 cards: 7.485828799977E-014 (0.00%)
TOTAL 1.000000000000E+000 (100.00%)
 
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