CanKen's Journal [fwd]

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
Ed. Note.

This is forwarded email from one of our readers, stories of success and hard work like this one really point out the truth of the journey, and are more worthwhile to read than 100 book son theory.

At the end of the post I have appended a graphical image of the author's play.

--Mayor

============================================================================

Back on June 12 you e-mailed me regarding my post on cc.com, and offered to
put up a graph of my results.

About 95% of my play is in a local casino offering five to ten BJ
tables. Limits are mostly $5 or $10 and occasional $15 or $20 minimums,
with a $100 max on all tables. Rules are 8-deck, split to 4 hands, DOA,
DAS. Penetration averages 75%, if you avoid certain dealers.
I started cautiously 3+ years ago with $1500 BR, betting $5-20, then
gradually increased my input to BR to $4000 about a year ago and increased
max bet to $40.
I have CVBJ and BJRM and use them both regularly. Of the dozen books on
my shelf, the ones I refer to most are Wong's "Professional BJ", and
Schlesinger's "BJ Attack".
Last October 12, you posted answers to some questions from me, and I
started using most of your suggestions. As you can see from my data, I was
much more successful from then on.
At present, with BR grown to $6800+, I play at $5 tables with good pen,
(they are always full, no wonging possible), spreading 5 to 60, or
preferably, $10 tables with good pen, two adjacent spots open, and no more
than three other players, betting 1x10 on neg EV, and 2x20 to 2x50 when I
get an advantage. Wonging is still a problem because most of the dealers
and PC's know me by sight, so I seldom try it.
I use a customized version of KO with 22 indices, including some risk
averse from "BJAttack". I also use exit counts equivalent to TC < -1 at
different deck levels, if I've lost two hands in a row.
My aim is to play 150 hours/year, roughly three sessions a week of about an
hour at a time.
The breaks in the chart mark the ends of "fiscal" years. The first two
years correspond to a learning period with limited play and small bets,
then improved methods and bigger BR started to pay off.
As well as the spreadsheet data I'm attaching, I keep a written log from
each session with other information including table min, count range, bet
spread, dealer's names and pen, comments on conditions and any mistakes
made. I don't tip if I lose, but do tip 5% of any significant win. I
don't tip if I'm playing where they don't know me.
I'm still having a problem with one piece of advice. In answer to a
question I posted on playing two hands, you said (Mar 18/03) to always
play two if possible, even off the top when you are at a disadvantage, and
even if you have to bet double the minimum on each. At a $10 table, with my
max bet of 2x50, this only gives a 2.5 to 1 spread, (40 TO 100), which
doesn't seem nearly enough in the 8-deck game I've described, even with
exiting at < -1. Everything else I've read recommends going to two hands
only if you have an advantage. Can you clarify? No one here seems to
mind if I go from one hand to two and back.
I guess I'm pretty much a recreational player, but I enjoy studying and
playing the game. The game I'm playing here is not very good I know. My
expectation is only about $1500 a year, but that's not bad for a fun hobby.
Any comments would be welcome.

CanKen
 

V-man

Active Member
Mayor,
I think the author jumped to conclusion too fast regarding how effective his recent method was. With 8-deck and all the conditions described such as full table limiting the number of hands/hour to maybe 60-65, the long run is a lot more than the 150 hours per year he described. My guess is that, for 150 hours/year, it'll take him at least anywhere from 5-8 years (maybe more) to get into the long run. His graph can only be attributed to the term that every ploppy admires and desires: Lady Luck.
I play under similar conditions to his (except with larger minimum and bet spread), and at first, after about 400 hours i was up more than 10K until I hit a loosing streak (so far more than 150 hours) that took me under the water.
This is one of a few things books can't teach you. You just have to go through it the hard way ...
 
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