Card count, money manage., shuffle track how would you play it?

[bjcount]

Please post your professional opinions on this scenario and how you approach it.
My strategy of choice is RPC w 1/2DTC
Your playing 6 deck, 1.75pen w/ 3 other players, total 5 hands inc. dealer.
1st: Bet 1 unit
1st hand, only 1 ten out in 18 cards RC=17 TC=1.5, we all lose to dealers 19
2nd:My bet = 1 unit What would yours be at TC1.5?
2nd hand, 2 tens out of 16 cards RC=38 TC=3.8, I lose to dealers 17
3rd:My bet =1 unit and yours?
3rd hand, 4 tens-1ace out of 15 cards RC=46 TC=4.6, dealer pulled BJ we all lose.
From all the posts I have seen here it would lead me to believe the proper bet for the next hand is at the TC=4 level which is approx. 4-8 units depending upon your spread.

Why would you do this?

Wouldn’t simple money management restrict your bet to 1 unit due to the string of losses or am I missing something?
If we follow the TC method of just raising your bet to follow the TC and continue to lose as the TC goes up, this is like a type of martingale, no? Meanwhile we are down 24+/- units in 3 hands.

Now we get to the end of the shoe and the count came down to a more realistic RC =15 with no drastic fluctuations to the down side and we traded wins/loses to the end. I would have to believe that there is a huge slug of 10’s sitting behind the cut off card..

With some eyeballing of the discards and the unused card slugs being inserted into the stack, I watch the shuffle. I have the cut card and place it gingerly and precisely in front of the slug I followed at the back end of the stack. The dealer pulls my cut cards to the front and burns a TEN. Hmmm I think I got it right.

Now I would bet 3-4 units into the top of the shoe. The tens come out as predicted. Now with each consecutive win the count is going deeper into the negative, but I am winning on each hand as I parley ¾ of the win into the next hand. By six wins in a row I am at table max, the count is very negative but I am on a streak.

So tell me what is wrong with this scenario as it goes against everything counters learn. What betting method do you follow and why.

Thanks
BJC

 

[Sonny]

Wouldn’t simple money management restrict your bet to 1 unit due to the string of losses or am I missing something?

The size of your bets has absolutely nothing to do with how many hands you won or lost. Proper bet sizing is based on your current advantage and the variance of the game. If you estimate your advantage to be 2% on the next hand you should bet in proportion to that advantage. The "streaks" that you invent will not tell you anything about the future.

Now with each consecutive win the count is going deeper into the negative, but I am winning on each hand as I parley ¾ of the win into the next hand. By six wins in a row I am at table max, the count is very negative but I am on a streak.

You should not be parlaying your bets like that. You are underbetting at certain times and overbetting at others. Underbetting will reduce (and possibly destroy) your advantage. Overbetting will cause you to go broke during a normal negative “streak” even if you are playing properly. Money management is all about winning the most money with the least amount of risk. Using a progression system will decrease your winnings and increase your risk. You will probably go broke, but even if you don't you won't win much money. All your card counting and shuffle tracking is useless if you are not betting properly.

If you are counting cards then you bet sizes will be based on the count, not any “streaks” that you perceive. If you are shuffle tracking then your bets will be based on your estimation of the slug you are playing. That's all there is to it.

-Sonny-

 

[callipygian]

Now with each consecutive win the count is going deeper into the negative, but I am winning on each hand as I parley ¾ of the win into the next hand. By six wins in a row I am at table max, the count is very negative but I am on a streak.

You should only parlay your bets when the count increases AND you win the hand. It's a cover play card counters use to make it look like they randomly vary their bets.

Randomly varying your bet is what you're doing. It doesn't work in the long run.

 

[InPlay]

You should only parlay your bets when the count increases AND you win the hand. It's a cover play card counters use to make it look like they randomly vary their bets.

Randomly varying your bet is what you're doing. It doesn't work in the long run.

The guy could be dead before he gets in his billion hands "THE LONG RUN." How many hands have you guessed that you have played ? Will you live long enough to get to the long run ?

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Am With Sonny

The size of your bets has absolutely nothing to do with how many hands you won or lost. Proper bet sizing is based on your current advantage and the variance of the game. If you estimate your advantage to be 2% on the next hand you should bet in proportion to that advantage. The "streaks" that you invent will not tell you anything about the future.



You should not be parlaying your bets like that. You are underbetting at certain times and overbetting at others. Underbetting will reduce (and possibly destroy) your advantage. Overbetting will cause you to go broke during a normal negative “streak” even if you are playing properly. Money management is all about winning the most money with the least amount of risk. Using a progression system will decrease your winnings and increase your risk. You will probably go broke, but even if you don't you won't win much money. All your card counting and shuffle tracking is useless if you are not betting properly.

If you are counting cards then you bet sizes will be based on the count, not any “streaks” that you perceive. If you are shuffle tracking then your bets will be based on your estimation of the slug you are playing. That's all there is to it.

-Sonny-

I agree with Sonny. Go with what he says.

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Don't Mind Shorting BJ

The guy could be dead before he gets in his billion hands "THE LONG RUN." How many hands have you guessed that you have played ? Will you live long enough to get to the long run ?

One may not live long enough to pay off their mortgage and get the full benefit of owning a home also. So should no one own a home?

If you are playing a game that requires a billion hands to get to the long run then you are playing a pretty bad game.

One has an advantage with proper play from the first hand forward. Hitting expectation in the short term is very possible.

 

[InPlay]

One may not live long enough to pay off their mortgage and get the full benefit of owning a home also. So should no one own a home?

If you are playing a game that requires a billion hands to get to the long run then you are playing a pretty bad game.

One has an advantage with proper play from the first hand forward. Hitting expectation in the short term is very possible.

Then we don't need the long run ? If we don't why is everthing calculated in millions of hands ? Everyone needs a roof over their head whether rented or paying a mortage so thats a matter of necessity. How long would it take you to play 1,000,000 hands ? Playing 40 hours a week X 52 weeks = 2080 X average of about 120 hands per hour = 249,600 a year x 4 years = 998,400 hands played over 4 years. Since this is not a large enough sample we will have to play 5 million hands. So after playing 5 million hands we have our sample. The problem with that is it took you 16 years to get to the "LONG RUN". Either your brain has turned to mush or you are broke after 16 years of the long run. Short termer ?

 

[bjcount]

Thanks Sonny, Callypgian, Black Avenger, and In Play for your reply.

Would some of you Pro's give the rest of us some insight to how you would play the hands as described. Instead of quoting the means and methods, tell us exactly how you would bet the three hands at the noted TC's... and then if you shuffle tracked the next shoe how you would proceed.
Maybe you would explain why you would go out with the multi unit bets at the top of the shoe (first 3 hands) when there are still +5 decks left. We can understand the advantage is in our favor based on the +TC, but IMO the risk is too high in the first deck of 6.

Thanks

 

[bj bob]

Precise answers

Please post your professional opinions on this scenario and how you approach it.
My strategy of choice is RPC w 1/2DTC
Your playing 6 deck, 1.75pen w/ 3 other players, total 5 hands inc. dealer.
1st: Bet 1 unit

We're OK so far here.

1st hand, only 1 ten out in 18 cards RC=17 TC=1.5, we all lose to dealers 19
2nd:My bet = 1 unit What would yours be at TC1.5?

With TC increasing to 1.5 you can always double your min. bet with impunity, so I would have 2 units on that bet.

2nd hand, 2 tens out of 16 cards RC=38 TC=3.8, I lose to dealers 17
3rd:My bet =1 unit and yours?

Rebet with 2 units.

3rd hand, 4 tens-1ace out of 15 cards RC=46 TC=4.6, dealer pulled BJ we all lose.

Ditto (2 units). BTW, since your speaking in "Reverese" (which I happen to speak), you must remember that the TC must be translated into Hi-Lo language if you want everyone to understand.Thus, you want your max. bet out at >+2 TC.

From all the posts I have seen here it would lead me to believe the proper bet for the next hand is at the TC=4 level which is approx. 4-8 units depending upon your spread.

Theoretically yes, but with your scenario, you cannot ramp your bets without winning any of those hands. From what was already explained above you need to win and then "appear" to be parlaying your previous bet. Vaulting bets will certainly lead to an early exit.

Why would you do this?

Wouldn’t simple money management restrict your bet to 1 unit due to the string of losses or am I missing something?
If we follow the TC method of just raising your bet to follow the TC and continue to lose as the TC goes up, this is like a type of martingale, no? Meanwhile we are down 24+/- units in 3 hands.

Welcome to the world of AP. The strict discipline required is the key in any situation. In the case you've described, I suppose you could try to get away with a neg. Martingale, but you may raise the pit's suspicions later on when you do ramp in a pos. count, so just keep on script and be patient. It'll all work out in the end, trust me.

Now we get to the end of the shoe and the count came down to a more realistic RC =15 with no drastic fluctuations to the down side and we traded wins/loses to the end. I would have to believe that there is a huge slug of 10’s sitting behind the cut off card..

With some eyeballing of the discards and the unused card slugs being inserted into the stack, I watch the shuffle. I have the cut card and place it gingerly and precisely in front of the slug I followed at the back end of the stack. The dealer pulls my cut cards to the front and burns a TEN. Hmmm I think I got it right.

Now I would bet 3-4 units into the top of the shoe. The tens come out as predicted. Now with each consecutive win the count is going deeper into the negative, but I am winning on each hand as I parley ¾ of the win into the next hand. By six wins in a row I am at table max, the count is very negative but I am on a streak.

As already stated, you should have stopped your parlay mode before the count went negative, either just freeze the progression and play to coast your bet until your first loss, or better yet, Wong out or color up.

So tell me what is wrong with this scenario as it goes against everything counters learn. What betting method do you follow and why.

Thanks
BJC[/QUOTE]

 

[Kasi]

The problem with that is it took you 16 years to get to the "LONG RUN". Either your brain has turned to mush or you are broke after 16 years of the long run.

Or, more likely, maybe you've doubled your original roll of 5000000 hands ago 100 times over but your brain is now so really really mushy you don't even know you're a multi-millionaire now.

It's a subjective term, like you say, and if your definition is brainless or broke in 5MM hands, so be it lol.

 

[Kasi]

Thanks Sonny, Callypgian, Black Avenger, ...

Yeah, do that. Add BJBob too.

 

[rukus]

Then we don't need the long run ? If we don't why is everthing calculated in millions of hands ? Everyone needs a roof over their head whether rented or paying a mortage so thats a matter of necessity. How long would it take you to play 1,000,000 hands ? Playing 40 hours a week X 52 weeks = 2080 X average of about 120 hands per hour = 249,600 a year x 4 years = 998,400 hands played over 4 years. Since this is not a large enough sample we will have to play 5 million hands. So after playing 5 million hands we have our sample. The problem with that is it took you 16 years to get to the "LONG RUN". Either your brain has turned to mush or you are broke after 16 years of the long run. Short termer ?

i think what avenger is saying is to find a better game so that you can hit the "long run" in the short term.... play a good single or double deck game with a strong strategy and your N0 is somewhere below 100 hours. that's short term enough for me...

alternatively, even in the shortest of timeframes, if you play with some positive expectation, you still have a 50% chance of hitting that expectation or doing better than it... dont give up playing a positive expectation game simply because some formula tells you that you need 100 billion hands to reach some non agreed upon long run. obviously try and find a better game with a shorter time to the "long run" if possible. but if not, play even that poor game with an advantage and you are a winner from the start.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Apples Are Not Oranges?

Then we don't need the long run ? If we don't why is everthing calculated in millions of hands ? Everyone needs a roof over their head whether rented or paying a mortage so thats a matter of necessity. How long would it take you to play 1,000,000 hands ? Playing 40 hours a week X 52 weeks = 2080 X average of about 120 hands per hour = 249,600 a year x 4 years = 998,400 hands played over 4 years. Since this is not a large enough sample we will have to play 5 million hands. So after playing 5 million hands we have our sample. The problem with that is it took you 16 years to get to the "LONG RUN". Either your brain has turned to mush or you are broke after 16 years of the long run. Short termer ?

A player that is using a weak counting system and is playing a bad game will have a hard time finding a game so bad that it requires a million hands to the long run.

I stand by my comment that you can mathematically experience positive EV from the first hand. From your first positive hand you have a better then 50% chance of being ahead and every hand you play going forward you increase your chances of being ahead.

The player either needs to become better and/or play that particular game better or find better games if they think they have a million hand long run.

Your example for a time frame was 16 years. It was to long an example. However, how many years do most Americans work? There are some jobs that pay monthly, a month of full time play is a lot of hours!

I almost defy you to find a game that has 5 million 3 SD hands to the long run and offers a reasonable SCORE.

 

[bjcount]

Yeah, do that. Add BJBob too.

Thank you BJBob for the detailed reply. When the example presented itself during play last weekend, I played the 3 hands just as you described, which is the way I learned. When I followed the good high card slug during the shuffle, I played the slug instead of the count during the first 1 1/2 decks of the next shoe which was highly profitable.

My friend told me I was nuts for not raising my bet higher during the first 3 hands when the TC approached 4.5-5 even though we both were losing. I lost 4 units against his 16 units. Then when I followed the slug in the second shoe, he went bezerk when I went out high at the top of the shoe, 3/4 parleyed each succesive win to 6 in a row and then backed off to 2 units. I estimated by eyeballing during the shuffle that the 1 1/2 decks was the end of the contaminated slug and was right on the nose. The slug was over.

If only that opportunity would come on every shoe... what a wonderful world it would be...

How about some more professional opinions on how they would play the scenario at the beginning of the thread. I am sure the other members have ran into similar plays.

Thanks
BJC
:grin:

 

[InPlay]

Or, more likely, maybe you've doubled your original roll of 5000000 hands ago 100 times over but your brain is now so really really mushy you don't even know you're a multi-millionaire now.

It's a subjective term, like you say, and if your definition is brainless or broke in 5MM hands, so be it lol.

You are right about it I skipped you're a multi-millionaire now. Good thinking. Do you see what now has happened to me after 5 million hands of BJ ?