Card counting 6-8 decks

[twinturboguy]

Hello all. I'm an amateur card counter from California and I'm still in the process of reading and studying more books. Before I go to my first trip to the casino, I decided to go through plenty of practice drills to test my knowledge.

I'm using the simple hi/lo count system but I seemed to have run into a few problems. I noticed that 6 or 8 card decks are mostly in a negative count. I plan to run a $500 bankroll at a $5 minimum but during my drills, it seems as if I'm constantly betting a minimum into a negative count. After a big number of hands, I'm still stuck in a negative count.

Is this normal? Should I be more patient? I'm afraid this might be costly to my bankroll. Is it more efficient and conservative to backcount tables and start your betting sequence?

 

[ScottH]

Hello all. I'm an amateur card counter from California and I'm still in the process of reading and studying more books. Before I go to my first trip to the casino, I decided to go through plenty of practice drills to test my knowledge.

I'm using the simple hi/lo count system but I seemed to have run into a few problems. I noticed that 6 or 8 card decks are mostly in a negative count. I plan to run a $500 bankroll at a $5 minimum but during my drills, it seems as if I'm constantly betting a minimum into a negative count. After a big number of hands, I'm still stuck in a negative count.

Is this normal? Should I be more patient? I'm afraid this might be costly to my bankroll. Is it more efficient and conservative to backcount tables and start your betting sequence?

Yes, backcounting would solve your problem as you would only be playing positive counts.

BTW, 500 dollars is NOT enough to play 5 dollar minimum 8 deck shoes.

 

[zengrifter]

Is it more efficient and conservative to backcount tables and start your betting sequence?

YES, games like that (6-8D) should wong in/out avoiding neg-count betting. zg

 

[Sonny]

I noticed that 6 or 8 card decks are mostly in a negative count...Is this normal?

Yup, I'm afriad so. The count will be neutral or negative about 75% of the time. As the others mentioned, backcounting is a much better use of your time and money. Luckily most of the casinos here in California allow mid-shoe entry.

-Sonny-

 

[ortango]

Yup, I'm afriad so. The count will be neutral or negative about 75% of the time. -Sonny-

Sonny, I'm not sure I understand this.. how could it be neutral or negative 75% of the time when there are even amounts of plus/minus cards> Please explain how this works....

 

[dacium]

I think he means 75% of the time you have no edge and shouldn't be betting.

You need either +1 or +2 just to get even. You really shouldnt play unless its +2. +2 or better will not happen that often. not only that but if it overs around +2 you can find yourself in and out of playing hands, which looks obvious that your counting, so it can be better not to come in until the count is strong and stay until it goes -2, as long as its not -1 for ages. Remember at a 7 player table the count can swing +15 in single hand, I have seen this.

You definatly cannot afford to play every hand. This is an unfortunate fact. You need a good act, I always say I am sitting out till such and such happens proclaiming that it would be unlucky to play right now (and it works to because usually the count is low and everyone keeps loosing). Then you come back in.

Its best that you count in the back ground and dont even sit down unless the count is good. Also you want to be in almost any shoe near the end, even if its a smallish bad count because if it goes good you can increase your bet/

 

[Mikeaber]

It's easier to understand this by thinking of an unbalanced count like KO. In 6-D, you start out a fresh shoe with an IRC (Initial Running Count) of -20.

With that as a starting point, there are about three things that can generally happen at the first of a shoe:

1. You see an abundance of face cards falling which drives the count even further negative.
2. You see a fairly even distribution of high and low cards falling so the count hovers around -20
3. You see "gold!" when the majority of cards falling are low cards which drives the negative count upwards towards your Key Count of -4.

If #1 happens, then the advantage would have been at the first of the shoe but you have no way of knowing it and can't take advantage of it. Unfortunately, that preponderance of high cards at the beginning means that somewhere along the line, there is going to have to be a strong run of WEAK cards falling before the end of the shoe to drag the count upwards to +4 which is the ending count for 6-Decks when you start with -20 in KO. This is a BAD situation and a good time to take a long break...maybe 10 minutes or so to wait on a fresh shuffle. It can turn around, but it's not likely.

If #2 happens, the likelihood is that you will reach a -4 Key Count where you can ramp your bets at about the time you reach the cut card. You will be grinding out minimum bets never getting the advantage. This seems to happen more often than not and corresponds to the 75% statistic stated in an earlier post.

Only when #3 happens are you likely to get a really good count. I've seen this come early, but honestly, I can't recall it happening much more than prior to the time at which about half the deck has been dealt. There have been exceptions, but to get a good count (one you can bet on) after only one deck has been dealt, you would have to see 16 more small cards fall than large ones during that first 52 card run!

With KO, there are "Exit Points" for wonging out in early stages of the shoe.

 

[Sonny]

how could it be neutral or negative 75% of the time when there are even amounts of plus/minus cards> Please explain how this works....

Because we need many of those low cards to come out before we get a positive count. We need to get a pretty good imbalance of the plus/minus cards before we get an advantage.

When the count is neutral (zero) the house has the advantage. This will be about 45% of the time. When the count is negative the house has an even greater advantage, which happens about 30% of the time. The other 25% of the time the count will be positive (+1 or greater) and the player will have an advantage.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Hello all. I'm an amateur card counter from California and I'm still in the process of reading and studying more books. Before I go to my first trip to the casino, I decided to go through plenty of practice drills to test my knowledge.

I'm using the simple hi/lo count system but I seemed to have run into a few problems. I noticed that 6 or 8 card decks are mostly in a negative count. I plan to run a $500 bankroll at a $5 minimum but during my drills, it seems as if I'm constantly betting a minimum into a negative count. After a big number of hands, I'm still stuck in a negative count.

Is this normal? Should I be more patient? I'm afraid this might be costly to my bankroll. Is it more efficient and conservative to backcount tables and start your betting sequence?

It's normal. You can play with $500 at a $5 table but you are going to need luck as well as skill to not lose all your money. On the positive side, if you lose all your money you have only lost $500 so you can come back later. Be sure to consult a crystal ball or carry a rabbit's foot, or whatever you feel will make you lucky. It will be effective about 50% of the time.

Backcounting works well and at the very least, Wonging out of negative counts. The High-Low count will work just fine. When you backcount, you decide at which point you want to get into the game so you can actually play a Kelly-proportional spread with $500, just your win rate won't be very high. Fine for getting some experience though.

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by twinturboguy
Hello all. I'm an amateur card counter from California and I'm still in the process of reading and studying more books. Before I go to my first trip to the casino, I decided to go through plenty of practice drills to test my knowledge.

I'm using the simple hi/lo count system but I seemed to have run into a few problems. I noticed that 6 or 8 card decks are mostly in a negative count. I plan to run a $500 bankroll at a $5 minimum but during my drills, it seems as if I'm constantly betting a minimum into a negative count. After a big number of hands, I'm still stuck in a negative count.

Is this normal? Should I be more patient? I'm afraid this might be costly to my bankroll. Is it more efficient and conservative to backcount tables and start your betting sequence?

It's normal. You can play with $500 at a $5 table but you are going to need luck as well as skill to not lose all your money. On the positive side, if you lose all your money you have only lost $500 so you can come back later. Be sure to consult a crystal ball or carry a rabbit's foot, or whatever you feel will make you lucky. It will be effective about 50% of the time.

Backcounting works well and at the very least, Wonging out of negative counts. The High-Low count will work just fine. When you backcount, you decide at which point you want to get into the game so you can actually play a Kelly-proportional spread with $500, just your win rate won't be very high. Fine for getting some experience though.

right on Auto. twinturboguy your going to find those eight deckers are interminably slow on presenting an advantageous count. i don't know hardly what to tell you about that other than what Auto said. hopefully you can wong in and out with out heat.
but i just want to say if $500 is all you have your going to need a lot of luck or going to have to be able to come up with perhaps a series of $500 trip bankrolls to get the ball rolling till you have a good bank.
some how i did just that. i started a year and three months ago with $300 and ended up so far with six and a half grand. only had to replenish a few times and that wasn't really necessary it was just something i did. so you might make it with a lot of luck but just be prepared to replenish that trip bankroll if your going to give it a shot. best of luck to you!
oh yeah, keep in mind never, ever, ever overbet.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[twinturboguy]

Thanks for all the great info guys.

$500 may not be an ideal bankroll, but well worth the experience. The nearest casino with good penetration is about 30 minutes away and I'm probably looking forward to more trips. Hopefully I will get lucky long run.

Although I'm aware of casino heat in and out of tables, staying low stakes and being social with others while keeping a running count will probably keep me low key for awhile.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks for all the great info guys.

$500 may not be an ideal bankroll, but well worth the experience. The nearest casino with good penetration is about 30 minutes away and I'm probably looking forward to more trips. Hopefully I will get lucky long run.

Although I'm aware of casino heat in and out of tables, staying low stakes and being social with others while keeping a running count will probably keep me low key for awhile.

right you are. that $500 can buy you one heck of an education and educations don't normally come cheap. it sounds as if you have a grip on the game. the social thing is a good ploy, recommended by professionals who know. you want to be the nice guy in the crowd. the guy nobody wants to give the boot. just remember wong out, wong out and wong out. back line bet if wonging in becomes a heat issue.
be conservative with waiting bets and get the optimal money in the circle when the count calls for it. and listen, normally quiting when you are ahead is a bunch of baloney for an advantage player but in your case you've just got a small bank and you need to build it up. so if you do get ahead by twenty bucks or so then call it a trip. keep that win in your bank till the next time you go. think when you get home about your session. plot and scheme your next foray. practice.
best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[ortango]

I totally get what you guys are saying now, about the 75%, especially on the 8d shoe. It is almost impossible then, the have a good count in the beginning hands (needing +16 to get to +2 TC) and the necessary number petering off as you go. But that means you should NEVER play the first 5-6 hands of a 8d shoe if possible? I guess so, though it doesnt apply to 1d.

 

[sagefr0g]

But that means you should NEVER play the first 5-6 hands of a 8d shoe if possible? I guess so, though it doesnt apply to 1d.

i'd have to pretty much agree with that. might not be so easy to do everytime though, but perhaps you could do it often enough to realize a benifit.

best regards.
mr fr0g