casino advantage

[MNKeeper]

i'm new to blackjack and i wanted to clear something up. I'm hearing a lot about how if the game is played correctly the casino advantage can be reduced to .44% or something like that. if I understand this correctly, that means even the best blackjack player in the world has only a 50/50 chance of walking out of the casino in the positive, right?

 

[bj bob]

i'm new to blackjack and i wanted to clear something up. I'm hearing a lot about how if the game is played correctly the casino advantage can be reduced to .44% or something like that. if I understand this correctly, that means even the best blackjack player in the world has only a 50/50 chance of walking out of the casino in the positive, right?

Not even quite 50/50, but you are correct if you only play BS. For the occasional player, this provides the best table game in the house and gives you the best chance to extend your bank roll, even come out a winner on occasion.
The whole trick is to overcome that -.44% and go over into +EV territory which can only be accomplished by advantage play, such as card counting, and on rare occasions, comp returns.

 

[MNKeeper]

sorry, but what's BS and comp returns?

 

[bj bob]

Oops!

Sorry I forgot that you were brand new to blackjack. Let me explain.
BS stands for "Basic Strategy" which is the proven mathematical way to play every BJ hand optimally. Playing perfectly according to BS is what yields the -.44% house advantage that you referred to. The more mistakes you make in BS, the larger the -.44% house advantage becomes.
"Comp" is the term used by casinos and players which is short for complimentary, i.e. the freebies given out by casino management to players to induce them to remain at their establishment for longer periods of time with the intent of your playing longer there and, therefore, losing more to them. The idea behind comp counting is that, even though you are playing at a -.50%~ disadvantage against the house , when you add up your accrued comp values you will actually be ahead of the house in the end. The dollar value of your freebies, such as meals, shows, cocktails and rooms will exceed your actual cash losses at the tables.
Ther are entire books written about this subject, the most popular is titled "Comp City" by Max Rubin and explains in detail how to take the maximum advantage of casino comp offers.

 

[MNKeeper]

o ok, that makes sense. thanks for the help.

 

[ihate17]

.44% perhaps

i'm new to blackjack and i wanted to clear something up. I'm hearing a lot about how if the game is played correctly the casino advantage can be reduced to .44% or something like that. if I understand this correctly, that means even the best blackjack player in the world has only a 50/50 chance of walking out of the casino in the positive, right?

Besides, learning basic strategy, you should understand that blackjack games can be found in Vegas (as an example) with house edges as low as .19% to horrible games with house edges over 2.0%.
The biggest factor in game selection is the payoff for a blackjack. If you are paid $6 for every $5 you bet, you have found a terrible game. Other important factors are if the dealer hits or stays on soft 17, can you double any first two cards, can you double after split, can you re-split, can you re-split aces, can you surrender?

All of these things plus the number of decks will have an effect on that house edge. .44% is a playable, average game in my opinion. No good but not bad.

ihate17

 

[shadroch]

You can expect to lose more hands than you win. But when you learn to vary your bets correctly,you''ll have more money out on many of your winning bets and smaller bets on losing hands. Plus you'll get 3/2 on your blackjacks and win double on your doubledowns.

 

[MNKeeper]

^ how would that work unless you're counting cards? obviously you have to make your bet before the cards are dealt, so how would you know when to bet more or less?

 

[Xenophon]

^ how would that work unless you're counting cards? obviously you have to make your bet before the cards are dealt, so how would you know when to bet more or less?

You do need to count cards to do what shadroch is talking about. When you count cards, you know when to increase your bet.

If you play basic strategy, you reduce the house edge to around .5% for most blackjack games, (except the ones where when you get a blackjack, they pay you 6 to 5).

If you count cards properly,and if you select your games properly, you can get about a 1-2% advantage over the house .

However, this does not mean you will win money every time you play. A 1-2% advantage can still leave a single card counter at a loss for a long time.

 

[bluewhale]

counting is easier than you think, a friend of mine recently went from minimal knowledge to excellent hi/low counting in 2 weeks. i'd say collectively about 20 hours of practice. not bad considering its a life skill that will yield plenty of money and excitement for the rest of his life.

 

[Kasi]

i'm new to blackjack and i wanted to clear something up. I'm hearing a lot about how if the game is played correctly the casino advantage can be reduced to .44% or something like that. if I understand this correctly, that means even the best blackjack player in the world has only a 50/50 chance of walking out of the casino in the positive, right?

If by "positive" u mean making money, then no, less than that.

If u include "losing less than expected value", then, yes, about a 50/50 chance.

Both assume flat-betting.

With different betting schemes you'd actually have a greater than 50% chance of coming out ahead even just playing BS. Different subject.

To put in perspective, assuming flat-betting, you probably have a 1 in 3 chance of not losing money over 10000 hands playing BS.

Or, put another way, win one net $10 bet at a $5 table every 3 hours and you've probably "overcome" the HA and actually made money.

It doesn't take a whole lot.

 

[Kasi]

i'd say collectively about 20 hours of practice. not bad considering its a life skill that will yield plenty of money and excitement for the rest of his life.

Maybe lol.

I hope he also knows how to bet a bankroll.

As I keep saying, counting accurately is the easy part.

Let's face it, adding and subtracting 1 just isn't that hard.

 

[sagefr0g]

...

With different betting schemes you'd actually have a greater than 50% chance of coming out ahead even just playing BS. Different subject.

are you meaning short term? is that what your refering to below? what sort of betting scheme?

To put in perspective, assuming flat-betting, you probably have a 1 in 3 chance of not losing money over 10000 hands playing BS.

Or, put another way, win one net $10 bet at a $5 table every 3 hours and you've probably "overcome" the HA and actually made money.

It doesn't take a whole lot.

but over the long haul just BS is a losing proposition regardless of the betting scheme if not counting or other AP methods. right?

 

[Kasi]

are you meaning short term? is that what your refering to below? what sort of betting scheme?
but over the long haul just BS is a losing proposition regardless of the betting scheme if not counting or other AP methods. right?

What do u mean by short-term?

Of course BS will lose in the long haul no matter how u r betting.

To me the question is, as always, lol, how long will a certain bankroll last betting a certain way with perhaps a goal of only exceeding EV. Or even, perhaps, breaking even or better. Or whatever goal.

I suspect the answer is lot longer, in general, than if u only flat-bet.

Now ZG will say move to voodoo

 

[sagefr0g]

What do u mean by short-term?

Of course BS will lose in the long haul no matter how u r betting.

To me the question is, as always, lol, how long will a certain bankroll last betting a certain way with perhaps a goal of only exceeding EV. Or even, perhaps, breaking even or better. Or whatever goal.

I suspect the answer is lot longer, in general, than if u only flat-bet.

Now ZG will say move to voodoo

short term?, i dunno for sure. maybe less hands than your N0 .
i've approached the game like that..ie. quiting play when exceeding the EV by about one SD for a session or when just reaching EV for a session. did that a lot but then i was counting not just using BS and not flat betting either.

 

[Kasi]

short term?, i dunno for sure. maybe less hands than your N0 .
i've approached the game like that..ie. quiting play when exceeding the EV by about one SD for a session or when just reaching EV for a session. did that a lot but then i was counting not just using BS and not flat betting either.

Well, if I understand N0 correctly, which I probably don't, it would be the number of hands such that EV - 1SD =0.

I also thought it was a (possible, at least one) definition of long-term rather than short-term.

But, OK, say I play 10000 hands at $1/hand in a .43% game with a 2000 unit bankroll. Since, maybe, that's what I'd play a multi-deck game with if I were counting.

I guess I'd expect to lose $43 and a 1SD loss might be about 160 units. I guess a 1SD win might be +75 units. I probably win some money at least 1 out of 3 times anyway. All flat-betting.

So now I have ~50 unit bankroll to bet 2 out of 3 times to make up just one unit. How often is one ahead at least 1 unit in the next 25 hands? Lots of ways to bet a 50 unit bankroll to make up one unit.

I don't know how long I'd last but maybe I'd be alot more likely to at least break even compared to flat-betting.

How many people will play 200000 hands in their lifetime? Even card-counting that might be an N0 number - all to cover a 1SD expected loss when u actually have a +EV game?

Basically I'm just saying card counting can be alot of work or so it seems to me. If ur gonna play 500 hours a year, go for it. If ur gonna play 500 hours in the next 10 years, maybe screw it.

Actually, I don't have a clue what I'm saying lol. But hats off to u card-counters

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, if I understand N0 correctly, which I probably don't, it would be the number of hands such that EV - 1SD =0.

I also thought it was a (possible, at least one) definition of long-term rather than short-term.

maybe at least in the right ballpark. but like the Bull market correction paradox our experiences might seem a bit out of whack. playing mostly on a field that resides in some standard deviation or the other that isn't on the target EV but unpercivibly to us moving in that direction either to our horror or gleeful joy.

But, OK, say I play 10000 hands at $1/hand in a .43% game with a 2000 unit bankroll. Since, maybe, that's what I'd play a multi-deck game with if I were counting.

I guess I'd expect to lose $43 and a 1SD loss might be about 160 units. I guess a 1SD win might be +75 units. I probably win some money at least 1 out of 3 times anyway. All flat-betting.

So now I have ~50 unit bankroll to bet 2 out of 3 times to make up just one unit. How often is one ahead at least 1 unit in the next 25 hands? Lots of ways to bet a 50 unit bankroll to make up one unit.

I don't know how long I'd last but maybe I'd be alot more likely to at least break even compared to flat-betting.

well, i think it was AutoMonkey that made a post about how a flat betting basic strategy player has to play a really lot of hands before the small negative ev that is inheirent is likely to be realized. i think this was in the same sense as when a card counter reaches his N0. so yeah i think what your getting at makes sense. one could do well for a good stretch of time just flat betting and playing basic strategy. i suppose it would be just as possible to be even better off for a good stretch of time employing some sort of betting strategy.

How many people will play 200000 hands in their lifetime? Even card-counting that might be an N0 number - all to cover a 1SD expected loss when u actually have a +EV game?

Basically I'm just saying card counting can be alot of work or so it seems to me. If ur gonna play 500 hours a year, go for it. If ur gonna play 500 hours in the next 10 years, maybe screw it.

Actually, I don't have a clue what I'm saying lol. But hats off to u card-counters

heh, heh well this is pretty much the same conclusion i came to after a couple of years of orthodox counting with great success and then a sudden bout with the Bull market correction paradox. the circumstances i now find myself in don't allow for me to put in as much time playing blackjack as i once was able for one thing and the reality check i experienced when the Bull market correction paradox hit me is what influenced me to get into this 'fuzzy counting' approach.

 

[Kasi]

i suppose it would be just as possible to be even better off for a good stretch of time employing some sort of betting strategy.

...and the reality check i experienced when the Bull market correction paradox hit me is what influenced me to get into this 'fuzzy counting' approach.

To the first - that's all I think I was trying to say lol.

And there's probably no "fuzzier" counter around than me lol.

I'm so fuzzy, I'm voodoo

But it's beaten the odds for a couple hundred thousand hands so good enough for me! It'll take way more than a couple hundred thousand more just to get to EV flat-betting.

 

[sagefr0g]

............And there's probably no "fuzzier" counter around than me lol.

I'm so fuzzy, I'm voodoo

But it's beaten the odds for a couple hundred thousand hands so good enough for me! It'll take way more than a couple hundred thousand more just to get to EV flat-betting.

thats just it for me. i guess i could play perfect like a computer. thing is they would have to carry me out on a stretcher when the session was over and i might not even have to worry if any one stole my chips :joker: .
so yeah for me (even when i was trying to play orthodox countwise) good luck has always been a big factor. problem is the potential of bad luck becoming a big factor.
so i just try and employ what i've learned from the experts while at the same time being very wary and keeping an eye on my bottom line.

 

[xxrenegadexx]

counting is easier than you think, a friend of mine recently went from minimal knowledge to excellent hi/low counting in 2 weeks. i'd say collectively about 20 hours of practice. not bad considering its a life skill that will yield plenty of money and excitement for the rest of his life.

You need much more than 20 hours of practice to be able to keep up with fast dealers in a casino. You need counting to almost become second nature in order to count, handle a conversation and show emotion at the same time...... it took me a while