the problem with economic predictions is that they assume energy is a constant, not a variable (of any meaningful effect).
There are a few things to be aware of. the world is using more oil than its producing now...by the tune of 400-700k barrels a day. This means that a) there is no more production capacity, or b) those who have it dont want to release it. If the case is b)...which saudi arabia claims to have, they control the world economy at the root. In any case, a) will eventually overtake b) in any supply/demand model where demand is ever increasing.
Another thing is that China has now become a coal importer. Coal for god sake, the most abundant fossil fuel on earth, and they are using more than they can mine. They are going to be the 2nd largest economy in the world very soon. Japan will be 3. The top 3 economies in the world will all be net importers of their energy sources.....that seems to be the opposite of a "constant" in the the economic prediction equations...in my view at least.
roll them bones :laugh: