Could someone calculate my life time ROR ?

Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Hey peeps,

I do have CV Data, i just wanna know what people come backs with.

Game - HE: 0.49.
Spread 1-25
Unit size - 5
Hand per / hours 100.

Total bankroll - 5000 or 1000 units.

What other info do you need?

Thanks
Ming
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
ycming said:
Hey peeps,

I do have CV Data, i just wanna know what people come backs with.

Game - HE: 0.49.
Spread 1-25
Unit size - 5
Hand per / hours 100.

Total bankroll - 5000 or 1000 units.

What other info do you need?

Thanks
Ming
Click to expand...
Win Rate per 100 rounds and S.d. per 100 rounds are what is needed.

SP
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
ycming said:
Hey peeps,

I do have CV Data, i just wanna know what people come backs with.

Game - HE: 0.49.
Spread 1-25
Unit size - 5
Hand per / hours 100.

Total bankroll - 5000 or 1000 units.

What other info do you need?

Thanks
Ming
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, a lot more information is needed.

Specifically, we need to know:
  • The frequency, EV, and Variance at each TC
  • If you will be wonging in or out (this information is tough to handle without a full sim)
  • The number of hours you estimate to play in your lifetime.
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Hmmm i guess life time is harder, if we move this to just trip ROR ? With 300 hours in this trip.

wong out at TC -2.

Win rate / hour is 15 or 3 units
Sd / hour is approx 60

Thanks
Ming
 
Last edited:
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
ycming said:
Win rate / hour is 15 or 3 units

Sd / hour is approx 60

Thanks
Ming
Click to expand...
Ming,

This may help you: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=207978#post207978

However, that assumes infinite hours.

If you want to know the RoR after some number of hours, if you let me know how many hours I can calculate it. The equation is a bit cumbersome but if you'd like, I can show you how I calculate it. But it will probably be very close to infinite hours, if you are taking it over your entire lifetime.

Now in the equation I linked to you, your Std. per round is simply Std. per hour / sqrt(100), or 6.8 units. Your EV is .03 units per round.

Hence, your infinite-hours RoR is:
RoR = ((1 - EV / Std.) / (1 + EV/Std.)) ^ (Bankroll / Std.)
RoR = ((1 - .03 / 6.8) / (1 + .03/6.8)) ^ (Bankroll / 6.8)
RoR = 0.991215 ^ (.1471 Bankroll)

So if Bankroll = 1000 units, you have RoR = 27%.
If Bankroll = 5000 units, you have RoR = 0.15%
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
I am assuming that your win rate and standard deviation you posted already takes into account your wonging out?

Lifetime RoR is the exact same thing as Trip RoR, but with more hours.

Let me know how many hours you want me to calculate it for, and I will. Also this assumes no stopping if you reach some goal. Goal-based RoR is tougher. Check out http://www.qfit.com/CVRoRC.htm and http://www.qfit.com/online-blackjack-calculator.htm for some online calculators.
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Many thanks Assume_R!

Life time ROR is defo the one am looking for. the 27% is what am looking at, and i'd guess with that life time ROR it is on the high side!

Thanks for the thread with all the formula!

Ming
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
You're welcome.

Just remember that I calculated infinite-hours RoR, which will probably be close enough to lifetime RoR. But if you aren't going to play that many hours in your lifetime, or stop counting if you reach a certain goal, then the values will change.
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Yup, didn't plan to stop at all.

Also see the EV, 0.03 unit / round ? what does "/ round" equates to ? is that per 100 hands? If so isn't that a bit low ?

Thanks
Ming
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
You said 100 hands per hour. I assumed that mean 100 rounds per hour. Unless you are playing multiple hands per round.

Either way, a round is considered from when the dealer deals the first card until the dealer plays out her hand. Typically people assume 100 rounds per hour. You said your WinRate was 3 units per hour. That equals 3/100 units per round.
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Ah sorry i get you now.

Also , i guess the bet spread affects the Std / 100 rounds or hour.

So If i were to decrease the bet spread would that lower the Std ? Also is there anything i could do to lower the Std. ?

Really, trying to move lower the ROR.

Thanks
Ming
 
A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
ycming said:
...i guess the bet spread affects the Std / 100 rounds or hour.
Click to expand...
Yes, spread affects Std. I hope the values you gave were for optimal betting.

ycming said:
So If i were to decrease the bet spread would that lower the Std ? Also is there anything i could do to lower the Std. ?

Really, trying to move lower the ROR.

Thanks
Ming
Click to expand...

Ah, now that is a whole other topic of consideration :).

Some suggestions:
  • More aggressive wonging in / out
  • Using Risk Averse indices.
  • Always playing LS games.
  • Lower bet spread (for a set of conditions there is a given spread which will give you the lowest RoR). But remember that might not give you the highest WinRate, and will certainly not give you the lowest N0 or highest SCORE.
  • Playing multiple hands in positive counts with a lesser bet on each hand (~73% of your single-hand bet for 2 hands).
  • Always betting optimally!
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Yeah the values i gave, already considered wonging out a -2, spreading to 2 boxes at +2 onwards and max bet at +4.

Although my unit size is set at 5, but i could get away with playing 2 when there are no advantage.

This might be a silly question, in your opinion what sort of ROR is acceptable?

Will look uinto risk averse indicies, and i guess there is a different list with different counting systems.

And would moving from hi-lo to zen lower the ROR by a siginficiant amount?

Thanks
Ming
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
ycming said:
Yeah the values i gave, already considered wonging out a -2, spreading to 2 boxes at +2 onwards and max bet at +4.

Although my unit size is set at 5, but i could get away with playing 2 when there are no advantage.

This might be a silly question, in your opinion what sort of ROR is acceptable?

Will look uinto risk averse indicies, and i guess there is a different list with different counting systems.

And would moving from hi-lo to zen lower the ROR by a siginficiant amount?

Thanks
Ming
Click to expand...
I generated the full RA indices for Zen, as this is the system I play. If you want them, do ask.

SP
 
Y

ycming

Well-Known Member
Please, i think Zen is the way forward for me, to drop the Std.

And do you only use RA indicies then ?

Thanks
Ming
 
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