Could someone do me a favor and calculate something on CVCX for me please?

[BJLFS]

Thank you so much. I just need to find out what the probablility was of this happening.

Starting BR: $2000
Ending BR: $600
Hands/hr: 60
Total hrs: 36 hrs.

Ave. bet: $7 ($5 - $10 tables)

Tell me if you need more info.

BTW, I just found some of the RoR software in CVBJ.


Is CVCX more accurate?

 

[MeWin$]

Need

Need more info like rules, pen, spread etc.

 

[BJLFS]

Need more info like rules, pen, spread etc.

Ooops.

DSA, H17, DD any two, PEN was about 1.5 decks, the spread was mainly $5 - $10 - went above that infrequently but occasionally went to $15 or 1 - 3.

Thanks.

P.S. 6D.

 

[Southpaw]

O.K., so to calculate this, one needs to know (1) the win rate / 100 rounds and (2) Standard deviation / 100 rounds .

You provide me with neither of these, but I'll still be able to give you a pretty good answer. If you wish to have a more accurate answer, then you're going to have to tell me the (1) conditions of the game you were playing at, (2) your count and (3) your betting strategy.

But for now, I'll make some assumptions and should be able to provide you with a great approximation.

The first assumption I'll make is that you're game warrants you a 1.00% over the house. Therefore, if your average bet is $7 (as you indicated), and you play 100 hands per hour, your expected win rate / hour is (100)(7)(.01) = $7.00 / 100 rounds.

Now, we have to approximate your S.d. per 100 hands played. I ran a simulation with these parameters:

Six Decks, S17, Split to 4, NoRSPA, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, 0.75 Pen, DAS, 1 other player

I used Hi-Lo with the I18. Full Deck resolution. Truncated True Count. I used Don Schlesinger's betting ramp (indicated below) and set the sim to wong at TC <= -2.

+1 or lower = 1 unit
+2 = 2 units
+3 = 4 units
+4 = 6 units
+5 = 2 hands of 6 units

The piece of information I want from this sim is the ratio of S.d. (per 100 played) to Win Rate (per 100 played). With this strategy, one plays 64.7% of hands, so I had to set the rounds per hour to 155 to have the sim actually play 100 hands per hour.

For this simulation S.d. (per 100 rounds played) / Win Rate (per 100 rounds played) = 29.02 units / 1.59 units = 18.25

Therefore, over 100 hands played, S.d. is 18.25 times as great as the win rate. To approximate the S.d. you were seeing, we can say that your S.d. = your win rate x 18.25 = $7.00 x 18.25 = $127.75 per 100 rounds played.

Now that we have approximated your win rate per 100 to be $7.00 and your S.d. per 100 to be $127.75, we can calculate the RoR.

So, we need to find the probability of tapping out $1400 over a period of 2160 rounds (36 x 60) given the above win rates and s.d.

CVData tells me the probability of this occurrence is 0.982%

SP

 

[Southpaw]

I started working on this problem before I saw you posted more info saying that you were only spreading 1-3. Your RoR is going to be a lot higher than what I just calculated, unless you were backcounting heavily, because your advantage would not have been +1.00% spreading 1-3.

SP

 

[BJLFS]

O.K., so to calculate this, one needs to know (1) the win rate / 100 rounds and (2) Standard deviation / 100 rounds .

You provide me with neither of these, but I'll still be able to give you a pretty good answer. If you wish to have a more accurate answer, then you're going to have to tell me the (1) conditions of the game you were playing at, (2) your count and (3) your betting strategy.

But for now, I'll make some assumptions and should be able to provide you with a great approximation.

The first assumption I'll make is that you're game warrants you a 1.00% over the house. Therefore, if your average bet is $7 (as you indicated), and you play 100 hands per hour, your expected win rate / hour is (100)(7)(.01) = $7.00 / 100 rounds.

Now, we have to approximate your S.d. per 100 hands played. I ran a simulation with these parameters:

Six Decks, S17, Split to 4, NoRSPA, 3:2 BJ, DOA2, NS, 0.75 Pen, DAS, 1 other player

I used Hi-Lo with the I18. Full Deck resolution. Truncated True Count. I used Don Schlesinger's betting ramp (indicated below) and set the sim to wong at TC <= -2.

+1 or lower = 1 unit
+2 = 2 units
+3 = 4 units
+4 = 6 units
+5 = 2 hands of 6 units

The piece of information I want from this sim is the ratio of S.d. (per 100 played) to Win Rate (per 60 played). With this strategy, one plays 64.7% of hands, so I had to set the rounds per hour to 155 to have the sim actually play 100 hands per hour.

For this simulation S.d. (per 100 rounds played) / Win Rate (per 100 rounds played) = 29.02 units / 1.59 = 18.25

Therefore, over 100 hands played, S.d. is 18.25 times as great as the win rate. To approximate the S.d. you were seeing, we can say that your S.d. = your win rate x 18.25 = $7.00 x 18.25 = $127.75 per 100 rounds played.

Now that we have approximated your win rate per 100 to be $7.00 and your S.d. per 100 to be $127.75, we can calculate the RoR.

So, we need to find the probability of tapping out $1400 over a period of 2160 rounds (36 x 60) given the above win rates and s.d.

CVData tells me the probability of this occurrence is 0.982%

SP

Thanks.

I have to re-look at your post. However the probability of that occuring with the data I have giving you slightly less than 1%????

The rest of the info is RSA to four hands. Let me get back to you in a moment on the SD.

On edit:

I put the hands/hr as 60 and calculated the SD at 25.48.

P.P.S. I put the win rate at 2.15 hands/hr.

 

[BJLFS]

I started working on this problem before I saw you posted more info saying that you were only spreading 1-3. Your RoR is going to be a lot higher than what I just calculated, unless you were backcounting heavily, because your advantage would not have been +1.00% spreading 1-3.

SP

I wasn't back counting.

 

[Southpaw]

Thanks.

I have to re-look at your post. However the probability of that occuring with the data I have giving you slightly less than 1%????

The rest of the info is RSA to four hands. Let me get back to you in a moment on the SD.

On edit:

I put the hands/hr as 60 and calculated the SD at 25.48.

P.P.S. I put the win rate at 2.15 hands/hr.

It would be preferable if you could give me the win rate and S.d. per 100 hands rather than per 60 hands. Note that the ratio of Win rate:S.d. per 60 hands is smaller than per 100 hands because total win grows linearly with respect to rounds passed while S.d. grows as a function of its square root (I believe that I read this in BJA by DS).

CVData requires that your enter win rate / 100 and S.d. / 100 and I cannot just multiply the win rate / 60 and S.d. / 60 by (100 /60) because they do not grow at the same rate.

SP

 

[zengrifter]

I used Hi-Lo with the I18. Full Deck resolution. Truncated True Count. I used Don Schlesinger's betting ramp (indicated below) and set the sim to wong at TC <= -2.

+1 or lower = 1 unit
+2 = 2 units
+3 = 4 units
+4 = 6 units
+5 = 2 hands of 6 units

Ramp is a bit anemic. zg

 

[zengrifter]

It would be preferable if you could give me the win rate and S.d. per 100 hands rather than per 60 hands. Note that the ratio of Win rate:S.d. per 60 hands is smaller than per 100 hands because total win grows linearly with respect to rounds passed while S.d. grows as a function of its square root (I believe that I read this in BJA by DS).

CVData requires that your enter win rate / 100 and S.d. / 100 and I cannot just multiply the win rate / 60 and S.d. / 60 by (100 /60) because they do not grow at the same rate.

SP

He's trying to figure out HOW he could have lost $1200 in 36 hrs with $5u. zg

 

[Southpaw]

Ramp is a bit anemic. zg

Agreed. I just wanted to use a ramp that everyone would be familiar with. Since, the sim was wonging, though, ramp is less important than it would be in a play-all situation. Also, since BJLFS turned out to only be spreading 1-3, this ramp more clearly depicts the S.d. he would be seeing than one that I would probably be using such as 1 - 2x10 or 2x15.

SP

 

[Southpaw]

He's trying to figure out HOW he could have lost $1200 in 36 hrs with $5u. zg

Well clearly there are many ways he could have done this. What he is after is how improbable it was that it actually happened.

SP

 

[BJLFS]

It would be preferable if you could give me the win rate and S.d. per 100 hands rather than per 60 hands. Note that the ratio of Win rate:S.d. per 60 hands is smaller than per 100 hands because total win grows linearly with respect to rounds passed while S.d. grows as a function of its square root (I believe that I read this in BJA by DS).

CVData requires that your enter win rate / 100 and S.d. / 100 and I cannot just multiply the win rate / 60 and S.d. / 60 by (100 /60) because they do not grow at the same rate.

SP

The SD - according to Wong - would be 16. (I used the generic data from page 50 of Pro. BJ.)

 

[Southpaw]

The SD - according to Wong - would be 16. (I used the generic data from page 50 of Pro. BJ.)

Tell me what your (1) S.d. (in dollars) is per 100 rounds and (2) your "expected" win rate (in dollars) is per 100 rounds and I will find the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds is.

SP

 

[BJLFS]

Tell me what your (1) S.d. (in dollars) is per 100 rounds and (2) your "expected" win rate (in dollars) is per 100 rounds and I will find the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds is.

SP

The SD is $60.
$ win rate is $16.

 

[Southpaw]

The SD is $60.
$ win rate is $16.

These numbers are blatantly incorrect (at least for a card-counter, maybe not for a thief).

I'll run them anyways.

CVData says that the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds when your W.R. (per 100) is $16 and the S.d. is $60 per 100 is 0.000%.

Double check your numbers, for as I said above, they are blatantly incorrect. Standard deviation is often 15-30 times greater than win rate.

SP

 

[BJLFS]

These numbers are blatantly incorrect (at least for a card-counter, maybe not for a thief).

I'll run them anyways.

CVData says that the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds when your W.R. (per 100) is $16 and the S.d. is $60 per 100 is 0.000%.

Double check your numbers, for as I said above, they are blatantly incorrect. Standard deviation is often 15-30 times greater than win rate.

SP

Same here. Let me take a look at the numbers again.


On Edit:

The SD and WR I used is for bet spreading using BS. It's the only chart I could find in Wong's book. I couldn't find one for counting and bet spreading. If that helps.

 

[Southpaw]

Well, as I said in my original post, if you give me (1) the game conditions, (2) your count, and (3) your betting ramp, I can easily calculate your W.R. per 100 and S.d. per 100. I could then accurately determine the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds. Otherwise, you may have to settle with my best approximation of about .98% or whatever I calculated in my initial post.

SP

Same here. Let me take a look at the numbers again.


On Edit:

The SD and WR I used is for bet spreading using BS. It's the only chart I could find in Wong's book. I couldn't find one for counting and bet spreading. If that helps.

 

[BJLFS]

Well, as I said in my original post, if you give me (1) the game conditions, (2) your count, and (3) your betting ramp, I can easily calculate your W.R. per 100 and S.d. per 100. I could then accurately determine the probability of losing $1400 in 2160 rounds. Otherwise, you may have to settle with my best approximation of about .98% or whatever I calculated in my initial post.

SP

I'll settle for that.

So, the approx probability of me losing in Vegas was aprox 1%?