Count plateau

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rdorange

Well-Known Member
Has anybody else ever notice that the good cards do not always come to you as the count slowly increases. The count plateaus and then when the count starts to tank... the good cards come out! That is when 90% of my wins occur. During the increased count, and when the count is on the plateau, I do not seem to win many of the raised bets. But as and when the count tanks, and my bet shrinks, I appear to win more. But by this time I have lost several big bets and am now winning smaller bets.
What gives? Or did I learn something wrong or have I just misunderstood somethin?:confused:
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
You're just on the edge of an epiphany.

While the count is rising, it means that small cards are being played. Your results should be the worst during rising counts.

If the count is unchanging, even if it is high, it means that a neutral mix of cards is being played. The odds here are the same as a freshly shuffled deck.

While the count is in the process of tanking, it means that the high cards are finally being played. Your results should be best during falling counts.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
rdorange said:
Has anybody else ever notice that the good cards do not always come to you as the count slowly increases. The count plateaus and then when the count starts to tank... the good cards come out! That is when 90% of my wins occur. During the increased count, and when the count is on the plateau, I do not seem to win many of the raised bets. But as and when the count tanks, and my bet shrinks, I appear to win more. But by this time I have lost several big bets and am now winning smaller bets.
What gives? Or did I learn something wrong or have I just misunderstood somethin?:confused:
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You're missing the obvious. The count can only go up with the appearance of small cards. Small cards equals pluses equals rising count. Small cards favor the dealer. When the count begins coming down, voila! big cards begin to fall. Big cards favor the player. big cards equals minuses equals falling count. Get it?
 
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toastblows

Well-Known Member
card counting is not some xray glasses magic trick dude. If you have a 20 TC which is ungodly, you can still get crap. Its just a tool that helps you understand the mathmatical probabilities. You can apply math to anything. The odds of winning powerball are like 145 million to 1, but sometimes people win it. If you bought 140 million tickets, you still can lose, even though you are overwhelminly in the mathmatical probability of a 97% chance of winning.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
rdorange said:
Lets see if I understand, as the count tanks - then raise/increase my bets?
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lol ... right! problem we all have with that is that there is no way to know when the count is going to tank unless it just happens to be the very last round of an uncut pack. :rolleyes:
so i guess we just need to be happy with knowing when the undealt cards are fluffy with high cards and to what extent so that we can properly size our bets with respect to the advantage percieved. then as you say it's no guarantee that we are going to get the high cards. :mad:
 
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rdorange

Well-Known Member
WHOA! I have some more practicing to do, with a whole new strategy to learn. I must now have the self control not to increase my bet as the count increases! Nor to increase my bet as the count (is up) has leveled out, even though it is high. Then as things get worse (dropping count) start increasing my bet? This just doesn't sound right!!!!
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
rdorange said:
Lets see if I understand, as the count tanks - then raise/increase my bets?
Click to expand...
Not quite. When you are in a positive count you are in the area where high cards are favored to come out. That doesn't mean they have to. You cannot predict when the uptrend will end and when the down trend will begin, or even if it will begin. You can only know that big cards are favored to come out. Reason with me. If you see big cards start to fall, is there any mathematical principle that says they will continue to fall? No. They may be favored to fall, but you cannot predict this. If you could, all these voodoo betters who think they can predict winning and losing trends would be winning money hand over fist. You should ramp up as the count goes positive. The further the count goes up the more the probability is that it will begin to fall. It doesn't have to, but you should ramp up to max bet based on the probability that it will fall. There is always the improbable possibility that all the big cards are in the cache of cards that will never be dealt. When that happens you have encountered the counters bane. There is really nothing you can do about it, but realize that in all probability you will win in the long run. Stay cool. Stay detached. Follow the rules you have learned.
 
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rdorange

Well-Known Member
Sarcasm

My last two posts were a bit of sarcasm.

I plan to stay the course as I have learned. I was just wondering if others have experienced the same thing as me. The wins and losses just don't appear when they "ARE SUPPOSED TO". When it is your money on the line, it sure makes having faith in the system difficult.
 
ChefJJ

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
EasyRhino said:
It made him chuckle.
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Thanks ZG. :grin:

I was curious to see if it made him laugh for the same reason why it did me, but it's good to know that you can read his mind ;)
 
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SilentBob420BMFJ

Banned
EasyRhino said:
You're just on the edge of an epiphany.

While the count is rising, it means that small cards are being played. Your results should be the worst during rising counts.

If the count is unchanging, even if it is high, it means that a neutral mix of cards is being played. The odds here are the same as a freshly shuffled deck.

While the count is in the process of tanking, it means that the high cards are finally being played. Your results should be best during falling counts.
Click to expand...
rdorange said:
Lets see if I understand, as the count tanks - then raise/increase my bets?
Click to expand...
no, raise your bet when the count is high, because clearly you cant bet anything AS the count is rising/falling, as by then its too late, and obviously you cant predict when it will rise or fall.. this is the entire point of counting cards, because if there are more high cards than there are supposed to be, then chances are it will go back down to the 31%.. when you count down a deck of cards, it will always end up at zero, and if there are only a few cards left, obviously the count cant be +5, so this means when the count is really high there is a good chance high cards will come out.. this is also why the cut card is evil..
 
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rdorange

Well-Known Member
not serious

SilentBob420BMFJ said:
no, raise your bet when the count is high, because clearly you cant bet anything AS the count is rising/falling, as by then its too late, and obviously you cant predict when it will rise or fall.. this is the entire point of counting cards, because if there are more high cards than there are supposed to be, then chances are it will go back down to the 31%.. when you count down a deck of cards, it will always end up at zero, and if there are only a few cards left, obviously the count cant be +5, so this means when the count is really high there is a good chance high cards will come out.. this is also why the cut card is evil..
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Bob, I wasn't serious, The question was rhetorical. I was just being sarcastic.

Sorry!
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
toastblows said:
You can apply math to anything. The odds of winning powerball are like 145 million to 1, but sometimes people win it. If you bought 140 million tickets, you still can lose, even though you are overwhelminly in the mathmatical probability of a 97% chance of winning.
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No big deal but you make it sound that you bought 140,000,000 randomly selected tickets as opposed to 140,000,000 tickets each with a different combination.

If randomly selected, nowhere near a 97% chance of winning, I'd say. Maybe in the low 60's? Anybody agree or disagree with that?

Just thought I'd point that out on the off-chance you were thinking of going down to the store and buying 140,000,000 tickets, I didn't want you thinking you had a 97% chance of winning and cursing your incredibly bad luck if you didn't :)
 
jack.jackson

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
Powerball tickets for sale!

Kasi said:
No big deal but you make it sound that you bought 140,000,000 randomly selected tickets as opposed to 140,000,000 tickets each with a different combination.

If randomly selected, nowhere near a 97% chance of winning, I'd say. Maybe in the low 60's? Anybody agree or disagree with that?

Just thought I'd point that out on the off-chance you were thinking of going down to the store and buying 140,000,000 tickets, I didn't want you thinking you had a 97% chance of winning and cursing your incredibly bad luck if you didn't :)
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Oh ****,:eek: I wish you would of posted this earlier because, I went down to gas station this afternoon and bought 140,000,000 worth of powerball tickets, thinkin I had a 97% of winning. Now you say I only have a 60% chance:confused: Im so f***ed!
 
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