Craps Don't Pass

[CasinoBlackjack]

I know/play just about every game in the Casino, including Craps. I know all the bets, all the lingo, everything. The don't pass line is what I play, as it is the best bet on the table House Edge wise.

I have read all the detailed analysis on how house edge is determined and such, but I don't understand where the edge comes from on the don't pass. I'm not disputing it, but maybe someone could explain it to me.

There are 36 different possible combos of the two rolled dice. On the come out roll you have 6 ways to roll a 7 and 2 ways to roll an 11 for a total 8/36, meaning 22.2% of the time this will happen.

So doesn't that mean I have a 77.8% chance of setting a point, pushing, or winning on my don't pass bet?

If a point is set you obviously have the "advantage" on the don't pass. It's obvious that the disadvantage to the don't pass is the initial roll of the dice, but I don't see how.

For those of you looking at this post and thinking I believe I'm "onto something", that isn't the case. I'm just looking for a clear explanation.

 

[sabre]

The 22.2% of the time you roll a 7 or 11 on the comeout, you lose. That is to say, you have a 0% chance of winning.

The 66.6% of the time you roll a point, you have a an edge of either 2:1, 3:2 or 6:5.


The fact that you have an edge after 66.6% of the come out rolls gets crushed by the fact that you automatically lose 22.2% of the time on the comeout.

 

[sabre]

Incidentally, is the .03% improvement in house edge really worth the lost social aspect of the game? I've always found the fun of craps to be at a hot table where everyone is winning, excited, yelling, and having a good time. Given that 95+% of craps players aren't wrong bettors.

Though if you're in a casino that comps the odds bet, I guess playing the don't could be a good idea. You not only get the lower house edge, but you're also betting more odds.

 

[CasinoBlackjack]

Makes sense now, thanks sabre. I guess I was just overestimating my chances of hitting a 7 after a point is made. The odds are in my favor, but not as much as I thought.

As far as the social aspect of the game, I have taken some heat in the past from people for betting the don't. I'm virtually silent at a craps table, but people losing on the pass line will still notice my bet and sometimes make smarmy comments.

I joined a rather busy craps table one night, everyone playing the pass line. And by everyone, I mean 10 players on it. I quietly placed my don't pass and the shooters were 7 out maybe 6 or 7 times in a row after making a point from that time. Finally, a guy that was increasing his bets each time, losing a lot shouted at me "You think that's funny!? Rigging the table like that?!", before storming off and flipping a chair on the way out.

 

[mike6789]

This is an interesting point...

What if one were to bet on the pass line as well as the don't pass line with the same amount.

The player is now protected from losing the don't pass initial bet on the come out (unless a 12 hits...) and is able to lay max odds on the don't pass line and play with the house's favor.

thoughts?

 

[ChefJJ]

This is an interesting point...

What if one were to bet on the pass line as well as the don't pass line with the same amount.

The player is now protected from losing the don't pass initial bet on the come out (unless a 12 hits...) and is able to lay max odds on the don't pass line and play with the house's favor.

thoughts?

Think of the 12 as the 0 (or 00) on the roulette wheel...it's the house's equalizer against a doey-don't player. So it isn't a totally risk-free play because the 12 is set to appear in less than 3% of all comeout rolls.

When it comes to the point-cycle (once the point number is established), you are essentially operating with a zero-sum situation if your Pass and Don't Pass wagers are of the same amount. The decision to either take or lay Odds on either side is somewhat a philosophical decision...would you rather pay more to receive less in order to take advantage of the 7 (Odds on the Don't) or pay less to receive more and go against the 7 (Odds on the Pass)? Mathematically, the Odds bet is a wash in the "long run", whether in this context or in any other. Being that Odds are a no-edge bet, it essentially magnifies volatility on either side.

good luck:joker:

 

[sabre]

This is an interesting point...

What if one were to bet on the pass line as well as the don't pass line with the same amount.

The player is now protected from losing the don't pass initial bet on the come out (unless a 12 hits...) and is able to lay max odds on the don't pass line and play with the house's favor.

thoughts?

If one person were to do this, it's very possible that the house would not give comps due to the offsetting bets, despite exposing yourself to around a 1.4% house edge. (since you lose half your total wager on a 1/36 event)

Even with two people playing, the comps you accrue will likely not come close to your expected loss.

This could be a useful gambit as cover for high stakes BJ play. Say two BJ players on the same bank hit the craps table for 1K/roll with full odds. The pass player wins 49K, the don't loses 50K. In addition to comps accrued, the don't player will probably have no issues hitting the BJ tables now with a huge bet spread. If that craps play buys one member of the team hours of high limit heads up at a 150+ SCORE game ... well ... that may be worth it.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If one person were to do this, it's very possible that the house would not give comps due to the offsetting bets, despite exposing yourself...

I tried that too. No comps, and no more drinks.

... to around a 1.4% house edge. (since you lose half your total wager on a 1/36 event)

Even with two people playing, the comps you accrue will likely not come close to your expected loss.

This could be a useful gambit as cover for high stakes BJ play. Say two BJ players on the same bank hit the craps table for 1K/roll with full odds. The pass player wins 49K, the don't loses 50K. In addition to comps accrued, the don't player will probably have no issues hitting the BJ tables now with a huge bet spread. If that craps play buys one member of the team hours of high limit heads up at a 150+ SCORE game ... well ... that may be worth it.

That's an interesting idea. It's also a practical way to launder big wins. Two guys with documented 5-figure wins square off at the craps table, only one walks out cussing and with a reputation as a big loser, and only one gets a CTR. A no-limit poker table is good for that too, probably less risky, and you can control the direction and amount of the transfer.

 

[FLASH1296]

The Wiz has the best explanation on what the real house edge is at Craps, and of course it can be reduced to a radically
low figure if you can afford to play 10-1 odds on the “dont’s“ In A C there are two casinos that will give you 100-1 odds !

House Advantage 0.021% (sic) That is two 100ths of a point. Esentially zero. BUT, remember, comps exclude your odds bets.


GO TO > http://wizardofodds.com/craps

 

[ChefJJ]

The Wiz has the best explanation on what the real house edge is at Craps, and of course it can be reduced to a radically
low figure if you can afford to play 10-1 odds on the “dont’s“

The following statement from the Wiz is probably one of the most concise statements about the philosophy of the Odds bet:

It is worth noting that while taking the odds lowers the combined house edge, the expected loss remains the same. That is because you are applying a lower average house edge to a higher average bet. Readers often write to me, making this point, as an argument against betting the odds. However, if it is you goal to minimize expected loss as much as possible, then don't play at all! If you are going to gamble anyway, and your goal is to minimize the ratio of losses to amount bet, then you should bet as much as you can on the odds.

good luck:joker:

 

[shadroch]

I'm not a craps player so someone please explain why betting the odds makes sense. In the long run, you can expect to gain nothing and lose nothing, and it doesn't count towards your comps, so why play it? I play slots and video poker because the comps I get more than offset my losses. I play BJ because I have a small edge a small percentage of the time, but thats when I have my big bets out. Craps is a losing propostion and I don't see how taking odds changes that. It reduces the house edge slightly, but subjects you to much greater swings.

 

[ChefJJ]

Craps is a losing propostion and I don't see how taking odds changes that. It reduces the house edge slightly, but subjects you to much greater swings.

Shadroch, from a non-AP standpoint I lean towards your POV. The Wiz's statement kind of gets at both sides of the fence, but in the end is in favor of the Odds probably from the pure HE% reason.

The way I see it is:

Don't Pass - once the point number has been established and a player is able to lay Odds, the Don't bet is quite favorable for the player. Putting up extra money at no advantage seems to dilute that advantage during the point cycle. Sure, the player is getting more $$$ on the felt to play with the 7 on his side, but the bet is accordingly higher than the payout to counteract it.

Pass - maybe this is where taking Odds is a decent idea. The comeout roll is obviously where the Pass Line bet is favorable to the player. But that lasts only so long before the point is established and a stiff disadvantage becomes reality. Taking Odds at this point can effectively dilute the disadvantage, but she is throwing more money at an uphill battle...against the 7. In my insignificant eyes, Odds are more effective here than with the Don'ts.

just my take

 

[FLASH1296]

I concur with ChefJJ

 

[FLASH1296]

facts

Here is the best way to look at it.

You wish to risk $1,000 at a craps table.

If you bet $1,000 you have a negative expectation of approx. $14

If you bet $10 with $1,000 odds your negative expectation is approx. 2 cents

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm not a craps player so someone please explain why betting the odds makes sense. In the long run, you can expect to gain nothing and lose nothing, and it doesn't count towards your comps, so why play it? I play slots and video poker because the comps I get more than offset my losses. I play BJ because I have a small edge a small percentage of the time, but thats when I have my big bets out. Craps is a losing propostion and I don't see how taking odds changes that. It reduces the house edge slightly, but subjects you to much greater swings.

You're absolutely correct; an AP would not take odds just for its own sake. But for the majority of the people who are there for the thrill of the gamble, it's an opportunity to play high-roller at 0% house edge, obviously better than anything else an unskilled person can do in a casino.

I suppose there's also an AP opportunity if you can spot mistake-prone craps dealers; put down your odds in odd-ball amounts and wait for the favorable mispays. At 100x odds you get a lot of leverage for that kind of game.

 

[shadroch]

Here is the best way to look at it.

You wish to risk $1,000 at a craps table.

If you bet $1,000 you have a negative expectation of approx. $14

If you bet $10 with $1,000 odds your negative expectation is approx. 2 cents

Okay, BUT.....
If you bet $1,000 you'll get comps that make up for the $14 difference.
In either case, you better be bringing $10,000 or more to the table. If I'm betting that sort of money, I want comps, not a break even game.

 

[FLASH1296]

AM …

Errors on a crap table with significant money bet do not exist because the entire craps crew, [The Pit Boss, The Box Man, The Stick Man and one of the two Craps Dealers] watch every payoff.

Also, the eye ALWAYS watches any craps action of a significant size.

 

[sabre]

Okay, BUT.....
If you bet $1,000 you'll get comps that make up for the $14 difference.
In either case, you better be bringing $10,000 or more to the table. If I'm betting that sort of money, I want comps, not a break even game.

Unless you're manipulating the speed of the game... the added comps aren't going to offset the added expected loss.

 

[Machinist]

Here's my 2 cents ... i can remember not to many years ago talk of betting craps to get the Diamond Card at Harrah's. I think it might have been before their new High Card.,,,, Cant remember the name of the highest card they now have.
3 hrs playing the pass/dont pass with a partner at such and such a bet , would get you a diamond card...and it would only cost you a few bucks in -EV.
The comps of a diamond card more than offset the small theoretical loss.
I always just found a 50 play or 100 play vp to get a card..

Also another point is you have to pay a vig if you want to "place" a dont pass bet.

Machinist

 

[sabre]

Also another point is you have to pay a vig if you want to "place" a dont pass bet.

Machinist

You're confusing the don't pass with laying a number. There's no vig on a don't pass bet or its odds.