Craps martingale on pass and come progressing independent of bets still on a point

[tthree]

Heres an interesting martingale twist Ive played with on paper but never felt it was ever completed to its potential and never tried in the casino.

You bet the pass line or come on each consecutive throws of the dice in the traditional martingale style. The progression completes on a natural win(7 or 11 on any bets come out). The interesting part of this twist is you dont only win your biggest bet in your progression for a 1 unit win. You win 1 unit plus double every bet won along the way that went to a point and was won. Also an 11 winner pays for all previous bets with a 1 unit profit but doesnt lose them.

Now I only considered this as a stepping stone for the best bet in craps, the odds bet, stopping your progression at level whatever because thats what you need to make all your free odds bets. It does however look interesting on its own.

Another thought that occurred to me was you would often have opportunities to end your progression early with a positive EV for your progression(ie point goes to 8 in 2 out of 3 consecutive bets in the same progression is 1 of many examples). If you dont understand this: you have won on the hit point(s), each bet on a point still unresolved has a an expected return on the average. If the sum of your win(s) in the progression and the value of the unresolved bets is more than you can possibly loss in the progression if you stop at that point you are at an advantage. I hope I said that right. I know what Im trying to say. If I didnt say it right I hope you get what I was trying to say.

Ive had alot of fun trying to figure out a good strategy to play free odds bets on the completed progression of whatever length and make it something playable. Ive been happy with alot of attempts, usually with relatively short progressions but never felt it was optimized so I never tried any in a casino.

Play with this one awhile . Ive always found it very entertaining and revisit it every few months for entertainment when bored. Maybe some math genius or computer wizard can put that finishing touch on this one.

I know the math in the house edge is theoretically impossible to overcome; however, You cannt lose until you end your progression(when a natural ends it for you, you enjoy the above stated bonus martingale win) and when you end it voluntarily you can turn every bet not lost to a craps roll into a bet with such a small house edge(as small as 0.021%) no bet in the casino even comes close to being as good a bet for the player(short of a card counter in a positive situation). Also many progressions can be ended early with you enjoying an edge over the casino for that progression as a whole when the progressions win(s) is/are couple with the value of your unresolved bets. Tempting problem...yes.

 

[QFIT]

Good grief.

 

[tthree]

I started maybe 15 years ago, in my progression betting days, playing with this on paper. The unique nature of the ability to win every bet in your progression and see you have worked into a player advantage intrigued me. I wrote a great craps system testing program and ran many sims of 1,000,000 rolls each. The basic progression never panned out. It would show a huge profit tens of thousands of rolls in often enough but always flopped in the long run except once where it showed a ridiculous number of units profit. I figured most likely went so negative the sign changed if that is possible.

The really interesting thing is if you view it as a stepping stone to what your real game is. Alot of craps players like to wait a few rolls to eliminate short rolls from their play. You will grind out a nice profit while you wait to play your game and also have bets you can take odds on.

My computer got fried in a lightning storm and I havent written another program. Ive been using various sources for a list of actual rolls from a craps table that are up to 35000 rolls each. All of my intelligent stepping stone attempts show a substantial profit(5000 to 10000 units) over all in EACH of these roll sources.

Three problems though:
1) My previous computer test runs on the basic progression show this as an insufficient number of rolls to be sure you can expect that to be an accurate assessment of long term success.
2)While they would show a profit of 5000 to 10000 units over those 35000 or less rolls in each roll reference source it would contain large downward swings in this time(never all at once like your traditional martingale but consistently losing after the grind profit for maybe 4 to 6 hours of table play at a time). Perhaps this is true of the proven and accepted card counting AP method and must be accepted as part of any winning system. But Ive been hoping to soften these dips before trying it in a casino. I guess we are talking about controlling variance.
3)The math says the task of overcoming a negative EV game by employing only negative or neutral EV bets is theoretically impossible. So as much as I look at the limited results(even though adding all the sources together comes close to 100,000 rolls) possible without computer sims I just find it hard to convince myself I actually have the success the almost 100,000 rolls indicate.

Yes this has been an on and off obsession for me as you probably can tell. Its just that intriguing.

 

[QFIT]

Congratulations. You are the 100,000,000th person to invent a progression system.

 

[tthree]

Qfit I thought this was the voodoo betting strategy forum. If all you want to do is mock and not make well thought out comments, why even read it? I reluctantly submitted this knowing I would get some knee jerk reaction naysayers. Just the word martingale has that effect(in me as well).

But it is not a traditional martingale. Your bet progresses independent of winning or losing your previous bet, in fact your previous bet is almost always unresolved waiting a repeat of its point. The martingale style only allows you to establish pass/come bets while grinding out a profit without the risk of losing short of a run of craps rolls(the achilles heal).

The thing that differentiates craps bets from all the other casino bets is the line bets hang unresolved for awhile. This way of employing a martingale bet progression interacts with that fact in a very interesting way. The point bet killer is also the comeout bet winner.

I just thought people who have fun with betting strategy exercises(presumably those reading this forum) might be very entertained playing around with this oddity only found in craps. What other game can you win every bet in your progression(with a good shooter) were the bets were placed to cover the(key here, potentially not already realized) loss of all preceding bets. And dont forget that bet everyone raves about in craps free odds(the free buffet is open).

 

[QFIT]

Qfit I thought this was the voodoo betting strategy forum. If all you want to do is mock and not make well thought out comments, why even read it? I reluctantly submitted this knowing I would get some knee jerk reaction naysayers....

Sorry, but you are the one using derogatory terms like "knee-jerk" and "naysayers." I have explained this before. When someone posts that it is or might be possible to win money with a progression system, and one makes posts to that same forum, it would be irresponsible for one to not make a comment. I cannot post the full mathematic proof every single time someone invents the hundred millionth version of a progression system. If someone posts that 1+1=3, do you really believe it is the responsibility of others to make "well-thought out comments?" Seriously, why would you not expect to be mocked for posting something that has been known to be incorrect for over a century?

 

[tthree]

Qfit did you even read my posts. I flat out stated(problem #3 in the list of problems) that by the math of a -EV situation it was theoretical impossible to overcome the the -EV using negative and neutral EV bets. I use the word theoretically because obviously if you remove yourself from the real world like using infinite bankroll and table limits the math starts getting fuzzy and breaks down.

Also the 'well thought out comments' you quote wasnt fishing for complements but talking about the types of replies.

 

[FLASH1296]

Re: Mock_worthy comments.

I have to stop myself from commenting on utter stupidity - I do NOT wish to belittle the
poster, but I do wish to help others, (who may be misled by such drivel as a martingale),
avoid being influenced by same.

Over the centuries. hundreds of thousands (very conservatively estimated) of fools have
bankrupted themselves with various progressive betting systems. Myriad European Royalty
lost their family fortunes, castles include, and then promptly committed suicide.

Wake Up! There are things that you do not know; and lacking a graduate school education
in mathematics should be a beacon to you. Open your eyes and ears. There are smart people
here who are trying to educate you, as you did your heels in, in a defensive posture, that
does not flatter you one bit. Nobody is more arrogant than someone who imagines
that he is right and others are wrong.

 

[tthree]

Im confused what is the purpose of the voodoo betting forum anyway.

 

[QFIT]

I read the posts. And, that is not what "theoretical" means.

I have been responding to posts like this since 1996. I have no idea how many variatins of progressions I have seen posted in the last 15 years. Come on, do you really expect an in-depth response to the millionth post about progressions?

 

[QFIT]

Im confused what is the purpose of the voodoo betting forum anyway.

Forums need to deal with posts that simply distract from the subject of the forum. For example, a forum on astronomy might have to deal with flat-Earthers. Instead of removing threads, they are moved to a "voodoo" forum. These forums are not expected to generate useful information. But, in the case of gambling topics, they can be seriously damaging to the finances of someone stumbling into the forum.

 

[tthree]

Man I AM very well educated in math. I was top of my class in all the advanced university math classes. I didnt go to grad school and I am humble enough to know and freely admit there are those better than I am especially since its only been a hobby after college not a career.

I never said it was a winning system. I told how my own computer sims proved the basic system did not pan out. I also was very honest about the results of the stepping stone attempts stating directly that a look at the computer sims said the sampling of the stepping stone attempts while very large were low enough to still expect you might show a profit when it would still fail in the long run.

Look I to have an off the charts IQ and I know arrogance comes with the territory. People get very frustrated dealing with me , now I see why. This application is a beautiful and elegant problem with the way the unique rules in craps interact with the progression. It has entertained me for years, and with the small house edge when used as a stepping stone to free odds performs about as well as any system in a negative EV situation(this means losing in the long run, only the casino plays long enough to realize the long run).

I understand your idea that you think you need to protect people but I only meant to challenge the people who enjoy playing around with these types of problems to have some fun. I also And if they choose to employ it in a casino to tailor the length of the progression to complement and even enhance whatever way they enjoy playing already.

Didnt you even think about it enough to see how someone who is going to play craps anyway and tailors this to fit their game as a stepping stone to prepare the felt for their play it most likely greatly reduces the house edge on their game while grinding out some extra money in the process. That much should be obvious to anyone who thinks about this enough to understand why Ive never stopped fiddling with it.

 

[QFIT]

Have fun.

 

[tthree]

It looks like Im writing while you are posting. Im sorry if I misunderstood the purpose of this forum. I thought it was to really talk about betting strategy. Now I understand that a post here is destined to not be taken seriously because of the purpose that this forum was set up for.

I am truly sorry that I took it seriously, dont worry I understand now.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Im confused what is the purpose of the voodoo betting forum anyway.

It's basically a place for us to go after reading useful posts so we can all have a good laugh.

 

[Enigma]

These forums are not expected to generate useful information. But, in the case of gambling topics, they can be seriously damaging to the finances of someone stumbling into the forum.

No one here is the nanny of every visitor that comes to the site. If you're tired of explaining yourself for the umpteenth time, then don't. That's what the stickies are for. The reason martingale strategies persist is because they have the illusion of working in the long term, because in the short term, they can yield positive results.

Instead of showing the long math, if you were to instead ask someone if they would risk, oh, say $64,000 to win $100 with a 98% chance of winning, you wouldn't have many takers. Sure, if people did, you'd have a lot of winners, for probably at least a few, perhaps several rounds. But that's not how it's perceived.

I'm not gonna knock the people who toy with variations on the system. I've tried (not for real money) my own variations. I'd like to understand craps better to get what this thread is proposing. It's interesting, it's fun, and I wish the derision would lessen in this forum towards those people exploring an idea. Understanding why something doesn't work is just as valuable as understanding why something does.

 

[iCountNTrack]

No one here is the nanny of every visitor that comes to the site. If you're tired of explaining yourself for the umpteenth time, then don't. That's what the stickies are for. The reason martingale strategies persist is because they have the illusion of working in the long term, because in the short term, they can yield positive results.

Instead of showing the long math, if you were to instead ask someone if they would risk, oh, say $64,000 to win $100 with a 98% chance of winning, you wouldn't have many takers. Sure, if people did, you'd have a lot of winners, for probably at least a few, perhaps several rounds. But that's not how it's perceived.

I'm not gonna knock the people who toy with variations on the system. I've tried (not for real money) my own variations. I'd like to understand craps better to get what this thread is proposing. It's interesting, it's fun, and I wish the derision would lessen in this forum towards those people exploring an idea. Understanding why something doesn't work is just as valuable as understanding why something does.

QFIT has spent considerable amount of time showing that progressions do not over come a game with a negative expectation, if you top of your class in math, you should be able to understand that (it is not LONG MATH). And if you want to learn about craps check Wikipedia.

Another garbage thread that belongs to the dumpster. thread locked