craps question

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

i found this in the wizards faqs..

I do not understand why you should lay the odds on the don't pass or don't come bets. It seems that you have already dodged the 7 and ll bullet, so the bet is now in your favor. Why would you dilute a bet that is already heavily in your favor with a large (relative speaking)bet at true odds? It seems that you are working in the houses favor by reducing the house edge on the entire bet.

I understand that taking the odds on the pass side reduces the overall house edge, however I don't understand how laying the odds can reduce the house edge on the don't side. I'm very curious? By the way, I discussed this with several casino bosses and dealers yesterday and they all had opinions, but not reasons for these opinions. Thanks for your time.

- Mike

Let's say you have a $10 don't pass bet and the point is a 4. You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet, so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 = $3.33. Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it. Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance of losing $50. The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33. So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents. With the don't pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%. With the don't pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50 = 6.67%. So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet. However that player edge is effective over more money. The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free.

wouldnt the exact same thing apply to lowering the house edge by taking odds on the pass line, thus you lose the same amount of money anyways, you just lower the house edge? if this is true, then taking odds does nothing but give you free entertainment and increase volatility.. i keep hearing about how taking odds lowers the house edge, but if it doesnt lower the money lost, then thats quite deceiving when you say it lowers the house edge, as it basically does nothing

 

[bj bob]

An age old arguement

A lot of people ask this same question and there are two ways to look at it. You can look at a don't bet AFTER the point is made, or look at the WHOLE process of the come out and subsequent results. They are both very different.
Let me explain further here. If you have already rolled through the come-out "land mine", you have already bucked some nasty odds against you, i.e. the 2,3,12 (4/36). This is where the house gets you, at the first part of the process. The roll against the repeat number, however now swings to your favor. At THIS point of time you have to complete the process by putting as much money as possible on the felt to maximize your profit, kind of like splitting aces no matter what the count in BJ. I personally leave the 6 and 8 flat on the BL since the odds are only 6:5 and substantially reduces the variance.
Hope you were able to understand this concept.

 

[LeonShuffle]

What taking odds does is dilute the edge. Let's say you make a $5 line bet and a point of 4 is established. You're line bet is now a big underdog (3 ways to roll a 4, 6 to roll a 7). If the table is 5X odds and you take $25, now 5/6 of your bet is even money because the odds pay 2 to 1 on a point of 4.

Now let's say you make a $5 don't pass bet and the same point is established. You're now a 2 to 1 favorite to win that $5. If you lay odds (up to $50) only your original $5 is still the favorite while the odds pay only 1 to 2, or $25. But if you have the bankroll, why not get more money out there when you're a 2 to 1 favorite.

Did that answer your question at all?

 

[bj bob]

Confusion abounds

Hey Leon, We both answered Bob's question at the same time. I hope his brain doesn't explode! (No Bob, were not making fun of you here!)

 

[Guynoire]

To tell the I think taking/laying the odds is a little overated. Sure it decreases the house edge per money bet, but it doesn't change your expected win/loss. For example, let's say you bet $5 on the don't pass line and a four is established as point, that's great you're a 2 to one favorite with an expected win of $2.50. Now let's say you lay 500 dollars on your bet, what's you're expected win. Answer it's still $2.50. In the long run all those odds bets will be pushes, so what's the point of putting up more money that you know will come right back to you? Comps maybe, or to look cool.

 

[ChefJJ]

The way I look at it: since the odds bet is a no-edge wager, it has two separate (and minor) effects on the line bets.

PASS/COME - After the point is established (these bets have a HUGE advantage for the player during the come out), these bets are at a sizeable disadvantage. The odds bet can "trim" this edge when taking into account the total amount of line + odds bet, but all of that comes with higher variance. That trimming of the house edge with increased levels of odds is affected by the Law of Diminishing Returns...which basically equates to the biggest cut coming with the difference between 0x and 1x odds, and becoming less of a reduction from 1x to 2x, 2x to 3x, etc. More bang for your buck with 1x odds.

DON'T PASS/COME - These bets have a huge disadvantage for the player during come out but once the bet travels to a number, the player has the most powerful number in the game WORKING FOR HIM...the 7. Making a no-edge bet in this case will just dilute your advantage. My philosophy is that if you have the 7 working for you, any other bets out there for you is counter-productive.

This is strategy when there are no modifications to the probabilities of the dice (dice control, cheating, etc.).

good luck

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

A lot of people ask this same question and there are two ways to look at it. You can look at a don't bet AFTER the point is made, or look at the WHOLE process of the come out and subsequent results. They are both very different.
Let me explain further here. If you have already rolled through the come-out "land mine", you have already bucked some nasty odds against you, i.e. the 2,3,12 (4/36). This is where the house gets you, at the first part of the process. The roll against the repeat number, however now swings to your favor. At THIS point of time you have to complete the process by putting as much money as possible on the felt to maximize your profit, kind of like splitting aces no matter what the count in BJ. I personally leave the 6 and 8 flat on the BL since the odds are only 6:5 and substantially reduces the variance.
Hope you were able to understand this concept.

this didnt answer my question

What taking odds does is dilute the edge. Let's say you make a $5 line bet and a point of 4 is established. You're line bet is now a big underdog (3 ways to roll a 4, 6 to roll a 7). If the table is 5X odds and you take $25, now 5/6 of your bet is even money because the odds pay 2 to 1 on a point of 4.

Now let's say you make a $5 don't pass bet and the same point is established. You're now a 2 to 1 favorite to win that $5. If you lay odds (up to $50) only your original $5 is still the favorite while the odds pay only 1 to 2, or $25. But if you have the bankroll, why not get more money out there when you're a 2 to 1 favorite.

Did that answer your question at all?

neither did this

To tell the I think taking/laying the odds is a little overated. Sure it decreases the house edge per money bet, but it doesn't change your expected win/loss. For example, let's say you bet $5 on the don't pass line and a four is established as point, that's great you're a 2 to one favorite with an expected win of $2.50. Now let's say you lay 500 dollars on your bet, what's you're expected win. Answer it's still $2.50. In the long run all those odds bets will be pushes, so what's the point of putting up more money that you know will come right back to you? Comps maybe, or to look cool.

exactly! whats the point?

The way I look at it: since the odds bet is a no-edge wager, it has two separate (and minor) effects on the line bets.

PASS/COME - After the point is established (these bets have a HUGE advantage for the player during the come out), these bets are at a sizeable disadvantage. The odds bet can "trim" this edge when taking into account the total amount of line + odds bet, but all of that comes with higher variance. That trimming of the house edge with increased levels of odds is affected by the Law of Diminishing Returns...which basically equates to the biggest cut coming with the difference between 0x and 1x odds, and becoming less of a reduction from 1x to 2x, 2x to 3x, etc. More bang for your buck with 1x odds.

DON'T PASS/COME - These bets have a huge disadvantage for the player during come out but once the bet travels to a number, the player has the most powerful number in the game WORKING FOR HIM...the 7. Making a no-edge bet in this case will just dilute your advantage. My philosophy is that if you have the 7 working for you, any other bets out there for you is counter-productive.

This is strategy when there are no modifications to the probabilities of the dice (dice control, cheating, etc.).

good luck

read the math, if you notice the house edge is lowered, but the money lost is still the same, thus it doesnt matter.. how can the math for one bet lower the house edge but the money lost is the exact same, yet it not be the same for the other bet? whether diminishing your edge, or increasing it, its still the same amount of money lost, right? i dont exactly know what the dont pass, pass, dont come, come bets are, nor do i know the difference for taking or laying odds, but i do understand that for 2 of the bets you root for the 7/11 on the come out, and the other 2 you root for a point to be established i think..

 

[ChefJJ]

read the math, if you notice the house edge is lowered, but the money lost is still the same, thus it doesnt matter.. how can the math for one bet lower the house edge but the money lost is the exact same, yet it not be the same for the other bet? whether diminishing your edge, or increasing it, its still the same amount of money lost, right? i dont exactly know what the dont pass, pass, dont come, come bets are, nor do i know the difference for taking or laying odds, but i do understand that for 2 of the bets you root for the 7/11 on the come out, and the other 2 you root for a point to be established i think..

AS a bit of background on these bets, a player can only take (Pass Line/Come) or lay (Don't Pass/Come) odds AFTER the point has been established. When those bets are coming out, a 7 & 11 is a natural winner (pays even money) for the P/C but a natural loser for the DP/DC. On the other hand, the 2, 3, & 12 are losers for the P/C and winners for the DP/DC...with the exception of the 12--it is a push for the DP/DC.

I'll try to answer your question a little further, so here goes...

The odds bet on the Pass Line pays you for your disadvantage according to the natural probabilities of the dice. For instance, if the point is a 9, you would take odds in the form of an even number since it pays 3:2. This is because there are four ways to make a 9 (winner), compared to six ways to roll a 7 (loser)...this is 3:2 in favor of the house.

Once the Pass Line bet has traveled to the point (9 is the point in this example), your bet is severely disadvantaged...20% house edge at this point for the 5 or 9. As a side note, the house has a 9% edge when the point is 6 or 8, and 33% when it is 4 or 10. So, by making a no-edge odds bet on top of the Pass Line bet, it brings the house edge down from 20% in this case towards 0%.

On the other hand, you have to lay odds if you bet the Dont's. Taking the previous example where the 9 is the point, the PLAYER has the advantage because there are six ways to make the 7 (winner in this case) compared to four to make the 9. That advantage is the same value as those edges listed above, just in the player's favor. For the odds bet, you would essentially need to lay $15 to win $10. Since laying odds is also a no-edge bet, it brings YOUR advantage down towards zero. But it gets more money out there in a situation where you have the edge.

The edge calculation factors both the odds bet and the line bet together once the point has been established. Lowering the house edge makes it a "better bet". But the point that the expected return stays the same has to do with the fact that over the long term, the odds bet pays according to your risk...expected return = $0. Think of it along the same lines as taking an even-money bet on a coin flip.

good luck

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

AS a bit of background on these bets, a player can only take (Pass Line/Come) or lay (Don't Pass/Come) odds AFTER the point has been established. When those bets are coming out, a 7 & 11 is a natural winner (pays even money) for the P/C but a natural loser for the DP/DC. On the other hand, the 2, 3, & 12 are losers for the P/C and winners for the DP/DC...with the exception of the 12--it is a push for the DP/DC.

I'll try to answer your question a little further, so here goes...

The odds bet on the Pass Line pays you for your disadvantage according to the natural probabilities of the dice. For instance, if the point is a 9, you would take odds in the form of an even number since it pays 3:2. This is because there are four ways to make a 9 (winner), compared to six ways to roll a 7 (loser)...this is 3:2 in favor of the house.

Once the Pass Line bet has traveled to the point (9 is the point in this example), your bet is severely disadvantaged...20% house edge at this point for the 5 or 9. As a side note, the house has a 9% edge when the point is 6 or 8, and 33% when it is 4 or 10. So, by making a no-edge odds bet on top of the Pass Line bet, it brings the house edge down from 20% in this case towards 0%.

On the other hand, you have to lay odds if you bet the Dont's. Taking the previous example where the 9 is the point, the PLAYER has the advantage because there are six ways to make the 7 (winner in this case) compared to four to make the 9. That advantage is the same value as those edges listed above, just in the player's favor. For the odds bet, you would essentially need to lay $15 to win $10. Since laying odds is also a no-edge bet, it brings YOUR advantage down towards zero. But it gets more money out there in a situation where you have the edge.

The edge calculation factors both the odds bet and the line bet together once the point has been established. Lowering the house edge makes it a "better bet". But the point that the expected return stays the same has to do with the fact that over the long term, the odds bet pays according to your risk...expected return = $0. Think of it along the same lines as taking an even-money bet on a coin flip.

good luck

so then is it possible to, in the long run, have an edge of like -.4% or less on all money wagered? thus losing $4 or less for every $1000 wagered, which would make it the best game in the casino if you dont include AP play.. if this is true, then how come all the books and such say blackjack is the best game, even if your not an AP?

overall tho, craps is too confusing for me, and i dont like to stand anyways, so i wont get involved in any craps conversations from now on..

 

[ChefJJ]

so then is it possible to, in the long run, have an edge of like -.4% or less on all money wagered? thus losing $4 or less for every $1000 wagered, which would make it the best game in the casino if you dont include AP play.. if this is true, then how come all the books and such say blackjack is the best game, even if your not an AP?

overall tho, craps is too confusing for me, and i dont like to stand anyways, so i wont get involved in any craps conversations from now on..

Not including any AP play in craps, taking a good amount of odds on the Pass Line bet can get you down that far on the house edge. But that puts a lot of money at risk, so variance likely goes up. The Pass Line bet on the come out is already a heavy favorite for you at that point.

Placing the 6 & 8 at the same time carries a combo bet house edge of just more than 1%.

good luck