CVCX ROR question

[Dyepaintball12]

I run a lot of sims on CVCX but am confused about one thing. Take for example a Sim I just ran:

8-decks
H17, DAS, LS
Spread 10 to 2x300
2 deck cut
$30k bankroll

At the bottom of the Sim page, the "Risk of Ruin" is stated as "5.3%"

But when I go into the Calculators page and use the "Odds of hitting a specific goal within a time constraint" and type in 6400 hands (5 days x 8 hours per day x 2 people x 80 hands per hour) it says our chance of making at least $1 is 100%.

This has me confused.

 

[assume_R]

It's because variance will almost certainly guarantee that you will be up $1 at some point on your trip. RoR is very different from time-constrained goals. Make sense?

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Yeah but this is saying after the entire amount of hands we have a 100% chance of being up $1, so not losing.

If you do this same trip 10 tens in a year isn't the calculator saying your ROR is 0?

 

[NightStalker]

i doubt

100% probability prediction

 

[assume_R]

Yeah but this is saying after the entire amount of hands we have a 100% chance of being up $1, so not losing.

If you do this same trip 10 tens in a year isn't the calculator saying your ROR is 0?

No, what it does is calculate that at some point you'll be up $1. So the assumption in the calculation is that the first time you're up $1, you end the trip. That's what a "trip with goal" aims to predict.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

No, what it does is calculate that at some point you'll be up $1. So the assumption in the calculation is that the first time you're up $1, you end the trip. That's what a "trip with goal" aims to predict.

AH! Okay now this all makes perfect sense

 

[assume_R]

If you do this same trip 10 tens in a year isn't the calculator saying your ROR is 0?

Well, it probably rounded to 100%. The calculation is saying that if you end if you're up $1 at every trip, there's a very good chance you'll be up $10 at the end of the year.