I'm out here in Louisville courtesy of an all expense paid trip by my employer (hehe). Ok, ok, I have to work during the day but that is just a minor annoyance.
Caesar's out here is pretty lame. Lot's of $10-$15 H17 8 decks shoes. However, I did note one potential vulnerability there. Although I missed what the dealer did with the plug, pen is about 75% and it was a very lazy looking shuffle. I only sat through one 8D shoe just to hang out with my colleague. What I did notice was the dealer cut the cards in half then shuffled them together in about 6 equal-sized stacks, and that was it! Even my ploppy colleague commented later that he couldn't believe she did not shuffle more. I've not learned shuffle tracking yet, but this was ripe for it no doubt! I might have to give it a go.
My focus is on the DD game. Pen is about 60%. The have a high roller room with $25 min, S17, D 10-11 only, and on the regular floor (3rd), a $25 H17 game with similar pen and D 10-11 also. Clearly the high roller game is better, but it also stays a bit more crowded.
The strategy: play the high roller DD game. Spread = 1-6. Playing KO, I will wong out anytime the count is 1 deck lower than it should be. For example, after 1/2 deck the count should increase by +2. If it decreases by -2, I wong out. At one deck, if there is no increase in the count from the initial running count I will also wong out since it should have increased by +4. Note that I start the IRC at 0, but I am not trying to confuse anyone. There will also be wong out points between -2 and 0 from 1/2 deck to 1 deck. Once I wong out, I cannot reenter the shoe as it is NMS entry. That's ok, as I plan to park at the table and wave off the hands mixed in with the usual excuses to get up from the table while having the spot held.
I also thought about an exit strategy related to the current streak, if I am at a wong out point. For example, if the count hit -4 prior to 1/2 deck dealt, that would be a good wong out point. If I set a rule, such as lose more than two hands in a row in bad counts, that would play into the idea that I am just avoiding a bad "flow" of the cards, not uncommon for ploppies.
Anyway, just curious as to comments on this strategy, effect on EV, and any suggested enhancements. I'm planning to hit this place pretty aggressively, I don't know of any Caesar's where I would worry about getting kicked out. Of course, I would not like to get Griffened or anything like that, but that is probably a laughable concept for a little green chipper like me.
The bad news was they raised the minimum on the good DD game to $50 around 9 PM, so I only got a shot at the bad DD game. Played a couple of heads up rounds and left up a mere $60, but it beats losing!
Also, the only 6D game I saw was $25 minimum in the high roller area, although I think it was actually S17. However, the required $25-$250 spread to make that playable does not fit my bankroll.
The 8D games do look ripe for wonging though, so I may do a little of that during the week.
Caesar's out here is pretty lame. Lot's of $10-$15 H17 8 decks shoes. However, I did note one potential vulnerability there. Although I missed what the dealer did with the plug, pen is about 75% and it was a very lazy looking shuffle. I only sat through one 8D shoe just to hang out with my colleague. What I did notice was the dealer cut the cards in half then shuffled them together in about 6 equal-sized stacks, and that was it! Even my ploppy colleague commented later that he couldn't believe she did not shuffle more. I've not learned shuffle tracking yet, but this was ripe for it no doubt! I might have to give it a go.
My focus is on the DD game. Pen is about 60%. The have a high roller room with $25 min, S17, D 10-11 only, and on the regular floor (3rd), a $25 H17 game with similar pen and D 10-11 also. Clearly the high roller game is better, but it also stays a bit more crowded.
The strategy: play the high roller DD game. Spread = 1-6. Playing KO, I will wong out anytime the count is 1 deck lower than it should be. For example, after 1/2 deck the count should increase by +2. If it decreases by -2, I wong out. At one deck, if there is no increase in the count from the initial running count I will also wong out since it should have increased by +4. Note that I start the IRC at 0, but I am not trying to confuse anyone. There will also be wong out points between -2 and 0 from 1/2 deck to 1 deck. Once I wong out, I cannot reenter the shoe as it is NMS entry. That's ok, as I plan to park at the table and wave off the hands mixed in with the usual excuses to get up from the table while having the spot held.
I also thought about an exit strategy related to the current streak, if I am at a wong out point. For example, if the count hit -4 prior to 1/2 deck dealt, that would be a good wong out point. If I set a rule, such as lose more than two hands in a row in bad counts, that would play into the idea that I am just avoiding a bad "flow" of the cards, not uncommon for ploppies.
Anyway, just curious as to comments on this strategy, effect on EV, and any suggested enhancements. I'm planning to hit this place pretty aggressively, I don't know of any Caesar's where I would worry about getting kicked out. Of course, I would not like to get Griffened or anything like that, but that is probably a laughable concept for a little green chipper like me.
The bad news was they raised the minimum on the good DD game to $50 around 9 PM, so I only got a shot at the bad DD game. Played a couple of heads up rounds and left up a mere $60, but it beats losing!
Also, the only 6D game I saw was $25 minimum in the high roller area, although I think it was actually S17. However, the required $25-$250 spread to make that playable does not fit my bankroll.
The 8D games do look ripe for wonging though, so I may do a little of that during the week.
