dealer breakratio is 1 out of 3.5 ok I know that ... but

[Stuart Wild]

Between which minus truecount and plus truecount the dealer breaks more often.
Is there any computer simulation done. I know that the dealer breaks more often at higher counts, but there must be a math window between a TC -1 and TC plus 1 or something.. Anybody? Just a thought?!

 

[stainless steel rat]

this was discussed

somewhere in the past. Perhaps at bjmath or something similar. Surprisingly the dealer breaks more often at small counts, not high counts...

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Small meaning...

...low to medium positive counts, right? At super high counts the rate of dealer no-draw hands starts to go up. But I'll still take them every time!

 

[learning to count]

The real question is...

is this information relevent to playing the game as far as strategy goes. Just because past play sets a standard of information we cannot use this as a playing device to predict how we will play the game. I may be wrong but such talk may lead to VOODOO!

 

[stainless steel rat]

I believe

that the answer was "small counts" = negative counts as well.

The discussion pointed out that on a bigger count, yes a dealer 6 up will break more frequently than on low counts. But the dealer won't get that 6 up as often in high counts...

I didn't pay careful attention since it seemed irrelevant to me, we all know when to bet big and how to do BS departures, and hopefully come out on top more often than not. But I have recently played two nights on the MS coast where I can't remember the dealer breaking during big counts. Kept getting 10's up almost every time, and only occasionally might have a 5 or 6 in the hole and break there... Of course I got plenty of stiffs with a DD TC of +10, and there's no obvious reason to stand on 12 vs dealer 10 up.

 

[stainless steel rat]

bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...

Yep, it can lead to voodoo. The point is to play by the count. Whether the dealer breaks or not more frequently does not matter, the only thing that matters is that on + counts we have an edge and have to take advantage of it. What that advantage really is does not matter (does the dealer break more often, do we get more snappers, etc.)

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I don't think he'll break more often in negative counts

If all the cards left are 5 or lower the dealer can never break. Oddly the dealer will always break if there are only 8's left, but this applies to no other card.

 

[zengrifter]

Break-ratio question... *LINK*

...is somewhere between irrelevent and dumb. zg

 

[stainless steel rat]

if you had that kind of counting system

you would probably be right. But hi-lo tosses in the 6's, and ignores the 7-9 cards completely, which means in a - count, there are fewer A-10's, but there could well be plenty of 6-9's available.

As I said, this wasn't my computation, I was just relaying something that had come up previously. I believe someone had done a Sim (might have been Norm, I am not sure) that simply tallied dealer breaks against every TC value encountered, and the result surprised me initially as I thought (like most) that higher counts would produce more breaks. The actual answer might have been "near zero breaks more" for all I remember about it. It was one of those "factoids" that is interesting but useless, IMHO.