Dealers hole card gravitates towards being a ten.

[shadroch]

We all know that the most likely value of the dealers hole card is a ten, but we also know that more than two thirds of the time, the card will not be a ten.
Two truths, but can either or both be used to our advantage?
Avery Cardoza suggests that we think of the dealers hole card as gravitating towars a ten. What he means is that the hand will have a tendency to increase in value by ten points.
An example he uses is a dealer up card of 9.
According to him, the dealer will make a hand of 19 about 36% of the time and have a 19 or better 52% of the time.
Any thoughts on this line of thinking?

 

[Pro21]

My thoughts are it is irrelevant. You know what the proper play is vs. a 9 so just make it and concentrate on other more important things.

 

[shadroch]

My thoughts are it is irrelevant. You know what the proper play is vs. a 9 so just make it and concentrate on other more important things.

I'm not worried about myself. I'm thinking of how to teach the game to newcomers. I'm teaching another Adult Extended Education class next month.

 

[Pro21]

I would tell them this

People learning try to understand why we make certain BS plays like "we hit soft 18 v 9 because the dealer might have 19". Don't get caught up in that thinking. We make the BS plays because computers have tried playing both ways billions of times and you win more money making the BS play. To be a successful player you just need to accept that BS is correct.

 

[Cardcounter]

You can change a basic stragedy play if you actually see the hole card underneath. Otherwise don't speculate on what might be underneath and go with basic stragedy which means hitting out soft 18 or hard 16 or lower. Splitting if you get A's, 9's, or 8's!

 

[ExhibitCAA]

pro21, shadroch, et al.: Please don't use the "billions of times" phrase, because it leads people into the fallacy that BS applies only if we could play billions of hands. BS obviously applies, even if we intend to play only a single hand. Here's an edited version of Pro21's explanation:

People learning try to understand why we make certain BS plays like "we hit soft 18 v 9 because the dealer might have 19". Don't get caught up in that thinking. We make the BS plays because computers have calculated the result of playing both ways against every possible combination of cards, and you win more money making the BS play. To be a successful player you just need to accept that BS is correct. If you do not accept this, then you are too arrogant and stupid to win at blackjack.

(I added the last critical sentence.)

 

[HockeXpert]

Adult Extended Education

I'm not worried about myself. I'm thinking of how to teach the game to newcomers. I'm teaching another Adult Extended Education class next month.

Shadroch:

"Adult Extended Education" = Card Counting 101? Or, do you teach this as "extra credit" in a real class?

Just curious.

HockeXpert

 

[HockeXpert]

I agree with Exhibit CAA but there is more to this "beyond" bs

I agree completely when it comes to bs and indexes that because a computer that has so much more computing power than we do says to do something we should do it but it is important to understand why bs is bs and why we vary our play at a particular index #.

The easiest example that comes to mind is using a side count of aces in an ace neutral count. When the number of remaining aces is know exactly, I am more apt to double 10 vs 10 when I know the index number indicates that count isn't quite there yet if I know there is a greater number of aces remaining than normal distribution.

Please correct me if I am wrong, Exhibit CAA. You are the expert.

Love your book, btw! Should be required reading for Shadrock's Adult Extended Ed class.

HockeXpert

 

[shadroch]

Shadroch:

"Adult Extended Education" = Card Counting 101? Or, do you teach this as "extra credit" in a real class?

Just curious.

HockeXpert

It's a one night class on how to lose less and get the most comps in Atlantic City, followed up by a "field trip" to AC.
We discuss slot clubs, matchplays, coupons, and spend a few minutes going over craps, roulette, BJ, poker, VP and slots.
I hand out BS charts for AC and an even simpler strategy I took from Casino Magazine.
It cost $30($20 for residents of the school district) and I get $10 a head. Last year I had 2osomething students. We got 44 for the bus trip, and I made $7 a person off that. The bus went to Resorts and they gave everyone $15 in slot play and a free buffet.

 

[daddybo]

I'm not worried about myself. I'm thinking of how to teach the game to newcomers. I'm teaching another Adult Extended Education class next month.

So the government is teaching basic strategy/gambling?

 

[HockeXpert]

I'd say that the government is signing up more people for GA! I think it's a great program. This is a program that actually encourages more people to be "professional" ploppies. I love it.

 

[ExhibitCAA]

HeX says: "it is important to understand why bs is bs and why we vary our play at a particular index #. The easiest example that comes to mind is using a side count of aces in an ace neutral count. When the number of remaining aces is know exactly, I am more apt to double 10 vs 10 when I know the index number indicates that count isn't quite there yet ..."

BS assumes that our information is our own hand, and the dealer's upcard, and nothing else. If you do have other information, then naturally you might make some non-BS play. Such deviations from BS should be based on quantifiable information, properly analyzed (i.e., not "I feel a Ten coming"). In the case of doubling sooner on 10 v T due to a surplus of Aces, this also can be exactly quantified. My own preference is to use computer analysis to quantify these things, instead of allowing the player to make seat-of-the-pants adjustments at the table. As much as possible, I like to remove strategic decisions from the player's hands. The player is reduced to a robot, doing everything by the book. The problem is ... covering every situation requires a REALLY BIG book!

 

[shadroch]

Does such a book exist?

 

[shadroch]

So the government is teaching basic strategy/gambling?

I'm not sure where the government enters into it. Adult Continuing Education is not a manditory program. It's to enrich the lives of those who are interested in it. I'll also be teaching a three hour class on self-defense for people 60 and over. I guess you'll be posting that the government is now arming its seniors.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm not sure where the government enters into it. Adult Continuing Education is not a manditory program. It's to enrich the lives of those who are interested in it. I'll also be teaching a three hour class on self-defense for people 60 and over. I guess you'll be posting that the government is now arming its seniors.

Why not? Have you ever seen some of the idiots they accept as cops? Arming the general public would be an improvement.

The "ten in the hole" is useful as a mnemonic, sometimes, but there's no substitute for just printing out a bunch of Basic Strategy cards and drilling them on it. If you can use a Basic Strategy card, you now know BJ 101.

 

[shadroch]

I've now taught two classes,this will be my third. For some reason, people in the class have been very reluctant to use the plastic BS cards at the table. These are all casual gamblers who for the most part play slots. The most popular question every class is how do you spot the "hot machines", and if not nipped in the bud,that discussion would be most of the class.
I've considered offering a course entitled "Spotting the hot slot ".
I suspect it would draw better than the current class.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I've now taught two classes,this will be my third. For some reason, people in the class have been very reluctant to use the plastic BS cards at the table. These are all casual gamblers who for the most part play slots. The most popular question every class is how do you spot the "hot machines", and if not nipped in the bud,that discussion would be most of the class.
I've considered offering a course entitled "Spotting the hot slot ".
I suspect it would draw better than the current class.

I suppose you could teach AP slots, but that might be too esoteric for this crowd and perhaps jeopardize AP opportunities as well.

Maybe a VP class would be a good fit- it will allow people a form of AP and at the same time give them the machine-play experience they are accustomed to.

 

[shadroch]

I asked about such a class. The Powers That Be felt my original class was okay because it was just giving people an overview of AC and how to enhance their visits. Classes that taught VP strategy and such might be considered promoting gambling and lead to potential controversy.
Besides, for the amount of preparation it takes to get a class ready, the money is just not worth it.

 

[daddybo]

I'm not sure where the government enters into it. Adult Continuing Education is not a manditory program. It's to enrich the lives of those who are interested in it. I'll also be teaching a three hour class on self-defense for people 60 and over. I guess you'll be posting that the government is now arming its seniors.

I was just ribbin' ya Shad. Actually, I think more educated casual gamblers would be a good thing. Maybe they will start complaining about the lousy rules that hurt the BS players more than the AP. I hope you teach 'em to do that!