dice control. this article seems off

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There are 36 combinations that can be made from of pair of dice. There are six ways that a seven can be made. (See understanding dice odds in the sidebar) This means that with a random roll the mathematical probability of a seven appearing will be once in every six rolls, which is a Sevens to Rolls Ratio (SRR) of 6. The house edge is calculated with this ratio. If you throw the dice 42 times and roll seven 7's you have a Sevens to Rolls Ratio of 6. (42/7 = 6) If however you have one non-random roll and throw seven 7's in 43 rolls you have an SRR of 6.14 this is enough to negate the house edge on the 6and 8 place bets. Just one controlled throw out of every 43 rolls of the dice would eliminate the house edge and yield a break-even game.


I cant see that being tru... just one controled throw can negate the house edge? I know its a very hard skill to master and gives a great edge but seriously that much?

 

[callipygian]

I know its a very hard skill to master and gives a great edge but seriously that much?

In a word, yes.

Most dice control articles deal with rolling dice on-axis, or making sure the side faces never turn up. In this sense, you're reducing the number of combinations from 36 (6 x 6) to 16 (4 x 4). Furthermore, by setting the dice such that favorable combinations are more likely to come up between the two dice (since opposite faces add up to 7, you can choose various side faces to exclude), you can improve your edge further.

As a matter of fact, if you were able to roll dice on-axis correctly 100% of the time, you would have a whopping 80% edge over the house. In order for dice control to work, you only need to roll dice correctly about 1/35 of the time.

Now, how one statistically determines that they're rolling on-axis correctly is a pretty dicey proposition - you'd need to track a huge number of throws to convince someone you're doing it right. (i.e. the N0 for dice control is very high)

 

[ChefJJ]

I agree. First off, I have to rant with my opinion that SRR is the most overrated and poorly used metric.

In my eyes, the proportion of on-axis rolls to total rolls tells most of the story (my OAP metric). A 1-in-4 (or 25% of all rolls) OAP is very solid, but is way different than 1 in 35 or what not. And the modest 1-in-4 takes considerable skill but reaps about a 5-8% reward. But it's all about consistency, so 1/35 of the time won't come around often when you are throwing 6, 8, or even 15-roll hands.

What often gets lost in many articles, books, etc. is that folks stress SRR and reducing 7s so much that a roll's content (quality, if you will) is ignored. Who cares if you are rolling the 7 every 6.4 rolls rather than 6 if you aren't hitting the numbers you wager on? Each of the 6 pre-sets (3 are junk in my mind, actually) restricts the outcomes to 16 instead of 36 as you've already mentioned. But what those 16 are is the bridge between the phyiscal skill of consistent on-axis rolling and winning money.

An AP shouldn't be betting on every possible number to profit, but should be using knowledge of the sets' to hone in on 2 or 3 numbers depending on the situation. Skill + knowledge = $$$...that's my perspective. :grin:

I've gone off on a tangent, but this is one of my passionate hobbies in life that is profitable. It takes time and effort, but the confidence in the casino is priceless.

good luck

 

[Brock Windsor]

I agree. First off, I have to rant with my opinion that SRR is the most overrated and poorly used metric.

In my eyes, the proportion of on-axis rolls to total rolls tells most of the story (my OAP metric). A 1-in-4 (or 25% of all rolls) OAP is very solid, but is way different than 1 in 35 or what not. And the modest 1-in-4 takes considerable skill but reaps about a 5-8% reward. But it's all about consistency, so 1/35 of the time won't come around often when you are throwing 6, 8, or even 15-roll hands.

What often gets lost in many articles, books, etc. is that folks stress SRR and reducing 7s so much that a roll's content (quality, if you will) is ignored. Who cares if you are rolling the 7 every 6.4 rolls rather than 6 if you aren't hitting the numbers you wager on? Each of the 6 pre-sets (3 are junk in my mind, actually) restricts the outcomes to 16 instead of 36 as you've already mentioned. But what those 16 are is the bridge between the phyiscal skill of consistent on-axis rolling and winning money.

An AP shouldn't be betting on every possible number to profit, but should be using knowledge of the sets' to hone in on 2 or 3 numbers depending on the situation. Skill + knowledge = $$$...that's my perspective. :grin:

I've gone off on a tangent, but this is one of my passionate hobbies in life that is profitable. It takes time and effort, but the confidence in the casino is priceless.

good luck

Have you calculated your edge? What kind of average bet do you make and profit per / session /table time/ or roll? Curious to see how this skill is doing in practice.
Thanks,
BW

 

[ChefJJ]

Have you calculated your edge? What kind of average bet do you make and profit per / session /table time/ or roll? Curious to see how this skill is doing in practice.
Thanks,
BW

No problem...I can get you some rough info on the latter specifics this evening when I am at the house. [They are in the post below.]

As far as my edge is concerned, my OAP (on-axis throw proportion to total rolls) is almost down to 4...it's consistently around 4.5 in casino play. I can get you some edge percentages for my bets this evening as well. My style is Pass + Odds and Come bets, depeding on the point number:

Come-out: Pass Line
Point 6/8: Take Odds, Place opposite the point number (use Flying V a.k.a. 3V pre-set)
Point 5/9: Take Odds, Place both 6 & 8 (use Flying V again)
Point 4/10: Take Odds, Place opposite the point number (use Mini V a.k.a. 2V pre-set)

good luck

 

[ChefJJ]

BW, to follow up:

On the come-out roll, I'm looking at a shade under 50% edge...but remember that player's advantage in a random situation is 33% anyways.

As I said above, I make the point-cycle play depending on the point number itself.

6/8: ~6.5% with Pass + Odds, ~5% on the Place bet.
5/9: ~4% with Pass + Odds
4/10: ~5% with Pass + Odds, ~12% on the Place bet.

All this has minimal meaning to me...the math reassures me that the edge is in my favor, but it's all about throwing the dice since what to bet and when to bet it is ingrained in my head. Depending on how crowded the table is, a session has a different meaning: a crowded table, I might hit & run...a sparsely-populated table usually gets me hanging around quite a bit longer.

So I go by what an average dice hand nets me. I'll be real honest with you, my bet levels often start out at table minimums as I get loose, e.g. $10 Pass, 2X Odds, $10/$12 Place bets. When the juices are flowing, I can play comfortably at $10 Pass (I use the Pass Line bet as the ticket to get the dice), 5X Odds, $20/$24 Place bets. This certainly doesn't sound like much on the table, but I'll be the first to admit that I am no high roller. $100-110 of my money on the table at one time is plenty for me.

Rough stats show that I make about 1.2 passes/hand and collect 4.4 Place bet hits/hand. At the $10 minimum level, I'm looking at about $30ish. At my upper level, about $80. I'd say that the strong point of my game is having only core wagers on the table and using pre-sets that target them. No "signature numbers", no SRR, just the basics of keeping dice on axis consistently.

good luck

 

[standard toaster]

BW, to follow up:

On the come-out roll, I'm looking at a shade under 50% edge...but remember that player's advantage in a random situation is 33% anyways.

As I said above, I make the point-cycle play depending on the point number itself.

6/8: ~6.5% with Pass + Odds, ~5% on the Place bet.
5/9: ~4% with Pass + Odds
4/10: ~5% with Pass + Odds, ~12% on the Place bet.

All this has minimal meaning to me...the math reassures me that the edge is in my favor, but it's all about throwing the dice since what to bet and when to bet it is ingrained in my head. Depending on how crowded the table is, a session has a different meaning: a crowded table, I might hit & run...a sparsely-populated table usually gets me hanging around quite a bit longer.

So I go by what an average dice hand nets me. I'll be real honest with you, my bet levels often start out at table minimums as I get loose, e.g. $10 Pass, 2X Odds, $10/$12 Place bets. When the juices are flowing, I can play comfortably at $10 Pass (I use the Pass Line bet as the ticket to get the dice), 5X Odds, $20/$24 Place bets. This certainly doesn't sound like much on the table, but I'll be the first to admit that I am no high roller. $100-110 of my money on the table at one time is plenty for me.

Rough stats show that I make about 1.2 passes/hand and collect 4.4 Place bet hits/hand. At the $10 minimum level, I'm looking at about $30ish. At my upper level, about $80. I'd say that the strong point of my game is having only core wagers on the table and using pre-sets that target them. No "signature numbers", no SRR, just the basics of keeping dice on axis consistently.

good luck

everything you have been saying is exactly my thinking... but with one change. Id assume some signature numbers. Isnt it good to have a few numbers that you know you can press and make $$$ on or am i being unrealistic? I agree that it is more important for an on axis throw than ssr. I appreciate your response with some actual figures as well as being realistic.

 

[ChefJJ]

everything you have been saying is exactly my thinking... but with one change. Id assume some signature numbers. Isnt it good to have a few numbers that you know you can press and make $$$ on or am i being unrealistic? I agree that it is more important for an on axis throw than ssr. I appreciate your response with some actual figures as well as being realistic.

I don't incorporate signature numbers into my playing philosophy, but as you know, many do. My approach is to play the game of craps by situation...one pre-set and bet for the come-out, another during the point-cycle when the point is X, etc. This strategy is based on a measurable skill level (OAP), which allows me to understand the edge I can gain in each situation. By staying on the prescribed pre-set consistently, I know that the math takes over...similar to card counting. You know that the odds are in your favor, but you may win some or lose some...but by keeping to the strategy, you let the math work for you.

Back to the signature numbers idea...it just gets in the way of my "dense betting" approach. I have no more than 3 wagers on the table at a time (not including dealer tokes, and counting Pass + Odds as one bet for simplicity). Usually I have only 2 wagers, but go with 3 when the point is 5/9. I find it hard to gain an advantage when wagering on the Place 5/9, so I use the 3V set to Place the 6&8 and try to knock down the point. If I looked for those signature numbers and bet them, I may have even more exposure...exposure that would contradict my on-axis mission.

I see "signature numbers" as an attempt to gain an advantage when on-axis throwing is unsuccessful. This is not a knock on the approach, but more or less a different philosophy on AP Craps play.

good luck

 

[standard toaster]

I don't incorporate signature numbers into my playing philosophy, but as you know, many do. My approach is to play the game of craps by situation...one pre-set and bet for the come-out, another during the point-cycle when the point is X, etc. This strategy is based on a measurable skill level (OAP), which allows me to understand the edge I can gain in each situation. By staying on the prescribed pre-set consistently, I know that the math takes over...similar to card counting. You know that the odds are in your favor, but you may win some or lose some...but by keeping to the strategy, you let the math work for you.

Back to the signature numbers idea...it just gets in the way of my "dense betting" approach. I have no more than 3 wagers on the table at a time (not including dealer tokes, and counting Pass + Odds as one bet for simplicity). Usually I have only 2 wagers, but go with 3 when the point is 5/9. I find it hard to gain an advantage when wagering on the Place 5/9, so I use the 3V set to Place the 6&8 and try to knock down the point. If I looked for those signature numbers and bet them, I may have even more exposure...exposure that would contradict my on-axis mission.

I see "signature numbers" as an attempt to gain an advantage when on-axis throwing is unsuccessful. This is not a knock on the approach, but more or less a different philosophy on AP Craps play.

good luck

hm you are right i understand your philosophy. Some dc's only stick with one set and dont change it in any given situation? that kind of seems pointless...

I always thought of signature numbers as a set that you could consistantly throw at any given time. A way to take advantage would be to bet min on the pass and big on their signature numbers hoping for their place/but bets and disregarding the point?

As i think about it if you become sucessfull at an on axis throw there are many many ways to take advantage. Is it possible with the hard set to dramaticly increase the % of hard tosses? Making a possible strategy just betting the hard ways? or is that edge just to large to overcome

 

[Martin Gayle]

ChefJJ,
This is incredibly interesting. I have read several books on Dice Control, rhythmic rolling and tried to practise it a bit. Can never get in the long run and usually need a partner to track your rolls.

Some questions for you.
1) How do you go about tracking your rolls? ie If 5 is your signature number do you track it as 4,1 or 3,2 or just a 5. If you use the hardway set and the 1 keeps coming up there is something wrong there unless you can adjust for it through betting. If your signature number is 4, and it rarely comes up as 3,1 would it not be a strong bet to throw on the Hard 4? Do you do this?

2) Are you able to track rolls on individual dice? ie The left dice pitches to the left and is not controlled and the right dice rarely hit the 1 or 6...therefore I know one dice is going to be 2,3,4,5 and again adjust betting.

3) I noticed on some of my personal sims that I thrown one std deviation MORE craps'. If your signature numbers are 2,3,4,10,11,12 how do you deal with this as the house edge on those numbers is so heavy straight up. if you control one dice to be a 1 or 6 it would make the Field a strong bet. But what can you do with it...

There are so many variables in this game and so many edges/hedges are coorelated. I really want to beat dice and I know it can be beaten. I beleive in dice control but I have seen so many conflicting betting systems with debateable logic behind each system.

Lots there, hope you can help.

 

[ChefJJ]

ChefJJ,
This is incredibly interesting. I have read several books on Dice Control, rhythmic rolling and tried to practise it a bit. Can never get in the long run and usually need a partner to track your rolls.

Some questions for you.

MG,

NOT trying to self-promote my views on AP craps, I urge you to head over to my blog and read up on some of the AP goods...there is a lot to it, and it should give you an idea of my thoughts. In addition, I hope to be putting some chapters from my book (possibly the whole thing) on my website for free viewing/downloading, but I've been having troubles with Adobe lately.

To get to your questions:
1) I do not track the outcome of my rolls, just whether both dice have stayed on the prescribed axis from start to finish. That's how I practice, and that's what I'm looking for in the casino.

"Measuring Your Control"

2) The previous answer applies to this one for the most part.

3) All I can attest to for this one is: try to keep 'em on axis more frequently and use the math to profit off of the core bets.

Just my POV...good luck

 

[ChefJJ]

hm you are right i understand your philosophy. Some dc's only stick with one set and dont change it in any given situation? that kind of seems pointless...

I always thought of signature numbers as a set that you could consistantly throw at any given time. A way to take advantage would be to bet min on the pass and big on their signature numbers hoping for their place/but bets and disregarding the point?

My question to this thinking is if a person is able to throw a particular set with proficiency, why couldn't one throw a different set with the same success? But that might just be due to my AP craps perspective. :grin:

As i think about it if you become sucessfull at an on axis throw there are many many ways to take advantage. Is it possible with the hard set to dramaticly increase the % of hard tosses? Making a possible strategy just betting the hard ways? or is that edge just to large to overcome

Hardways can be made incredibly lucrative, and I will sometimes get on them as a 2-way bet: for me and the dealers. But you bring up a great couple questions here with them, and I'll start by going back to the sets themselves. I (and others probably) separate the 6 possible pre-sets into two categories: Anti-7 and Pro-7 sets.

The Anti-7 sets include the 2V, 3V, and 23V...but I throw out the 23V set since it doesn't beat the other two. These limit the number of possible 7s to 2 (12.5% chance) while focusing on box numbers, namely 6&8 (3V) or 4&10 (2V).

The Pro-7 sets include the Hardways Set that you mentioned. This, and the other two that flat-out blow in my eyes, pumps up the 7s probability to 4 (25%). This is why it is primo for come-out rolls...plus, it eliminates the 2, 3, 11, & 12: losers for the Pass Line bet.

Hardways are possible via all three of these key pre-sets. However, the 3V and 2V sets only allow hardways of the 6&8 and 4&10, respectively. The Hardways set has all four possible. But the conflict with using this is the heightened chance of the 7, which kills any right-side bet during the point-cycle. And since there is only one way to roll each of the four possible hardways, there really is no way to promote them beyond just having it on the set

If you like the hardways, look at these player edges for the corresponding OAPs (remember that 1:5 is 20% on-axis proficiency):

Hard 6/8 (3V set) - OAP 5...22.73% OAP 3...43.94%
Hard 4/10 (2V set) - OAP 5...11.11% OAP 3...25.93%

So, hardway betting should be done situationally, in other words, only if you'd be betting on the Place bet number. The Hardways set makes all four hardway numbers available, but at the expense of a heightened probability of the 7.

good luck