Does the Table Have a Memory?

WhiteJill

Member
Is it fair to say that if one is a non-advantage player, then the more hands you play, the more you play into their hands?

After studying black jack for several weeks as a way to make money, I am disillusioned, albeit not surprised, that such a thing is not possible, short of counting, and even that can be defeated by shuffling systems.

So we are left with BS, pun intended, which, as we all know, even if played perfectly, is just a way to minimize loss, not a way to make gain. As far as betting strategies are concerned, there are none. All are mathematically flawed and financially fatal. To reference the fallacy of “free-energy” junk science, you can’t get something from nothing.

Which brings me to my rhetorical question: Does the blackjack table, like the proverbial coin, have a memory? If the advantage is to the house, but I win a hand, or a series of hands with flat betting, or any other type of betting, Martingale or otherwise, which puts me over my original BR, is it not fair to assume that the more hands I play, the closer I come to losing that money? Is it not certain that continuing to gamble is not a gamble at all, but a sure bet that you will lose whatever you gained, and then some? Does not statistical probability insist on it? Is it not true that the more you gamble, the less of a gamble it becomes? If the answer is yes to those questions, then the table has a memory. Since “the table” does not care how long I am away from it, it remembers me as soon as I come back and takes back what it previously gave me, if it was kind enough to give me anything to begin with.

Which brings me to my exit question: Would it not then follow that the only “system” to shuffle off this mortal coil ahead of the game in blackjack, (and that is, presumably, what we all want) is to make a few big bets on the highest roller table available, get lucky, win two or three hands in a row, and never play again? Is that not, ultimately, the most mathematically realistic approach to making some money at this game, without having to just give it right back?

But what fun would there be in that, you ask – win a few big hands and never play again? No fun, other than the satisfaction of knowing you did the impossible for a non-advantage player. You can die knowing you beat the house.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Or you could learn how to either count cards or count comps and play at an advantage.Did you really spend several whole weeks studying the game?
If you are looking to get rich quick,this isn't the game to do it in.
If you are looking for a way to subsidize your vacations,this might be it.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
The traditional explanation of things is that a coin has no memory (each flip is an independent trial). A blackjack shoe DOES have a memory, in that subsequent hands are dependent on previous ones. However, that dependency is not based on whether you win or lose (the basis for most "systems") but instead on the composition of the hands (card counting).

So, your statement is more metaphysical: any gambling device will remember that it's function is to take your money. Sure, why not, I'll buy that.

I can't really begrudge anybody any reason they would have to not gamble.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
WhiteJill said:
Does the blackjack table, like the proverbial coin, have a memory?
No, and neither does the coin. The thought that things will “even out” is the basis of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Check out this link for a detailed discussion about this concept:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9093

WhiteJill said:
After studying black jack for several weeks as a way to make money, I am disillusioned, albeit not surprised, that such a thing is not possible, short of counting, and even that can be defeated by shuffling systems.
Keep studying. Card counting is not the only way to beat BJ. In fact, it is one of the weakest ways. There are literally dozens of other ways to legally get an advantage. Here is a link to more information on a few techniques:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=21994

-Sonny-
 

WhiteJill

Member
You're right, the coin does not have a memory. That "memory" is reflected only in the mathematics of probability before the series of tosses are made. It's really the opposite of a memory, it's predictive. The chance that a coin will land on a particular side, a side chosen by you, before the flipping begins, a particular number of times, also chosen by you, say in this case, 7 times in a row, is 1 in 128. Long odds. If you do this experiment, you will see that the coin does not like to do this feat. It resists doing it. That "resistence" is probability rearing its ugly head. The probability measurement of this feat is not taken between the 6th and 7th flip. There it is only 1 in 2. It is taken at the beginning of the series of 7 flips, and for this feat, that probability is 1 in 128.

Since there is nothing to influence the random outcome of a coin toss, each individual toss is 1 in 2.

Not so with blackjack. Since the House has the edge in how the card play is structured, there is something influencing the odds. The odds of winning each hand is not 1 in 2. The more hands you play, the closer you come to baseline odds, which are in the House's advantage. If you are a non-advantage player, whether it be counting, or wonging, or any other tactic, you will lose your money eventually. The more hands you play, the more you play into their hands.

Like the coin analogy, Blackjack can not payout in the long rong. If coin tossing were a game at a casino, the more you toss that coin, the closer the results will come to baseline, which are 50/50. Toss a coin a million times, bet any betting strategy on any toss, for whichever side you like, and you will end up with the same amount of money at the end as you started with. You can not make money betting on coin tosses as a source of income anymore than you can lose money at the table that way. That is why casinos don't offer coin tossing as a game. But with blackjack, it's worse, because you will end up with less than you started with.

This is assuming a non-advantage player.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
I agree except for a minor point:

WhiteJill said:
Toss a coin a million times, bet any betting strategy on any toss, for whichever side you like, and you will end up with the same amount of money at the end as you started with.
In theory yes, but in practice probably not. At the end of one million flips if would be very unlikely that you are exactly even. As you said, the odds of realizing your exact EV would be very long. In reality you will probably end up ahead or behind a significant amount of money. Even though the percentages are regressing to the mean, the absolute differences are getting larger:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7821

WhiteJill said:
You can not make money betting on coin tosses as a source of income anymore than you can lose money at the table that way.
That reminds me of the story about the guy in Atlantic City who used to give 2:1 odds (sometimes as high as 4:1 or 10:1 odds!) on a fair coin flip. That guy made a lot of money over the years. Then again, he was a very good advantage player. ;)

-Sonny-
 

Guynoire

Well-Known Member
WhiteJill said:
But what fun would there be in that, you ask – win a few big hands and never play again? No fun, other than the satisfaction of knowing you did the impossible for a non-advantage player. You can die knowing you beat the house.
Actually any ploppy can beat the house, the easiest way is to only play when you have an advantage such as a casino promotion. There's more expected value in American Casino Guide than the cost of the book. Of course this assumes you'll be in Las Vegas during the course of the year, or otherwise travel costs will kill you. There may be opportunities for this kind of promotion advantage play using just basic strategy online, but I haven't personally done it so don't quote me on that.
 
Guynoire said:
Actually any ploppy can beat the house, the easiest way is to only play when you have an advantage such as a casino promotion. There's more expected value in American Casino Guide than the cost of the book. Of course this assumes you'll be in Las Vegas during the course of the year, or otherwise travel costs will kill you. There may be opportunities for this kind of promotion advantage play using just basic strategy online, but I haven't personally done it so don't quote me on that.
Hi there Guynoire & WhiteJill :eek: - no no I'm not going to go there! :devil:

Sure, online play at least used to have a higher advantage than any live BJ, you can use BS but there a few modified BS's to help you wring extra pennies from the promotion.

Coupons are great but most of them are low dollar value so as you say they are best for a Vegas local who is still a low roller. One thing online play has done is taught me the mathematical theory of promotions to allow me to extract maximum value when I do get coupons.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
coin flips

so does flipping a fair coin for some given 'high' number of flips have a standard deviation? or is standard deviation something that has to be related to dependent events?
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
so does flipping a fair coin for some given 'high' number of flips have a standard deviation? or is standard deviation something that has to be related to dependent events?
Sure a fair coin does. The variance is .5*.5=0.25. Stan dev is always square root of variance or 0.5. So for 1000 tosses 1 SD would be sqrt(1000) *.5= 15 or so. For 10000 tosses it would be 50.

So if you toss a coin 1000 times you will be with in 15 plus or minus of your expected 500 heads 68% of the time. Or within 50 of the expected 5000 heads for 10000 tosses also 68% of the time.

The key is 1 SD always means your results from expected will fall in whatever range 68% of the time.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
WhiteJill said:
As far as betting strategies are concerned, there are none. All are mathematically flawed and financially fatal. But what fun would there be in that, you ask – win a few big hands and never play again? No fun, other than the satisfaction of knowing you did the impossible for a non-advantage player. You can die knowing you beat the house.
Depends of course on how much you want to win over how long.

But of course some betting systems will win x a high percentage of the time.

Like finish 2 units ahead at $1000/hand, and you could probably play $1 hand for the rest of your life before you'd lose those 2000 units.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Sure a fair coin does. The variance is .5*.5=0.25. Stan dev is always square root of variance or 0.5. So for 1000 tosses 1 SD would be sqrt(1000) *.5= 15 or so. For 10000 tosses it would be 50.

So if you toss a coin 1000 times you will be with in 15 plus or minus of your expected 500 heads 68% of the time. Or within 50 of the expected 5000 heads for 10000 tosses also 68% of the time.

The key is 1 SD always means your results from expected will fall in whatever range 68% of the time.
i get the part about standard deviations and the bell curve and all (sort of lol). so how did they derive the concept of standard deviation anyway? i'm guessing from calculus applied to the bell curve or something like that. so that would make standard deviation this abstract concept that could be applied to all sorts of things i guess. and i really know zilch about probability or statistics. but they did make me fool around with Schrödinger's equation and Avogadro's constant in school lol. it never occured to me i really didn't know what all that stuff was lol. i just thought i was confused.
but anyway isn't the number your comming up with ie. 0.5 the probability of heads times 0.5 the probability of tails equal to 0.25 whats called the 'joint probability'? (what ever that is i don't know, i saw it in wikipedia lol) so at least in this case the joint probability is equivalent to variance? if that's true is it true for dependent events as well? for one thing about variance and like i say i don't know the convention but i'd think variance should be a measured value. well at least i guess it mostly would be in statistics but i imagine one could contrive a value for variance as well lol like it's logical that 0.5 would be the probability of heads for a fair coin or is it vice-a-versa where it's logical that 0.5 would be the variance. or both maybe :confused:
sorry for rambling here. maybe i ought to get a book or something so as i would know the conventions of what the heck i'm trying to understand.
at least i think i get the point of probability and maybe statistics is to try and know the likelyhood of some event happening. :rolleyes:
 
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