Don't let ploppy "logic" get into your head

[Dschddny]

I almost let the "logic" of a ploppy affect my decisions yesterday (probably because I was sick as a dog and not able to use 100% judgment). The ploppy explained to the person next to him that it makes sense to stand when you have a hard-15 vs a dealer Ace. The reason being that once the dealer has checked for blackjack (and doesn't have it), the only cards that could be you would be a 6, 7, 8, or 9. So there are 4 cards which could beat you and 5 cards which wouldn't beat you (since he doesn't have a 10). So he'll take his chances with a 5:4 advantage rather than risk busting. This logic sounded reasonable to me in my weakened state. After further review, I realized that the logic was quite flawed.

Can anyone else explain the flaw in his "logic"? I'm curious what people think.

 

[MrPill]

There are plenty of combinations of those other 5 card types combined with the ace that would do you in. He was not taking into account that the dealer gets to hit!

Pill

 

[BlackJackHack]

Generally speaking, it is dangerous to proceed down the slippery slope of examing why basic strategy (or, if you are counting, your indices) dictates a certain play. A computer can play a gazillion hands in an hour, and accurately determine which play will generate the best results over time. Many of the results will seem counterintuitive, but I'll take the computer over intuition anytime. Thus, it should suffice to say that the ploppy was wrong because the computer says he's wrong.

That being said, I suspect that basic strategy demands hitting 15 v A because, even though only 4 cards (6,7,8,9) will make a pat hand, the dealer gets at least two more opportunities to make a hand in the other situations (AA, A2, A3, A4, A5) before s/he can possibly bust.

 

[Victoria]

Not only does the dealer get to hit but it takes two bad cards to bust the dealer and only one decent card to beat you.
Simply put if positions were reversed and you knew the dealer had hard 15 and you have soft 12,13,14,15, or 16, would you not be splitting the aces and doubling on the other combinations?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

With a sufficiently high count, I'm sure standing is the right move, assuming you are unable to surrender. But a ploppy doesn't know this.