Don't you just love...

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Staying on a stiff hand in a high count (against high up card) and watching the dealer go bust?

Several years ago and BEFORE learning counting and Basic Strategy I played a lucky session of Blackjack at a nice casino. Not knowing much of what to do at all i decided to stay on all stiff hands. Was my first major length of time at a 21 table. Must have been in a very high shoe count or just very lucky as the dealer busted often on all my hands between 12 and 16. This influenced my thinking prior to counting with both positive and negative habits. Since corrected.

The positive side is that I decided then and there to avoid using the expression "Bad cards". Once I'd won five or six hands with a mere twelve that is. Using the term "bad cards" is negative thinking and doesn't reinforce my better play. It also makes me more likely to lose and waste energy I'll need later. Taps both strength and nerves.

Today (of course) I only stay on a stiff hand against dealers high card in a fairly positive count. Yet it's always fun to see the dealer go bust. She'll say: "Nice stay".

I think some cool dealers appreciate good play. It means that their tips go up. I'm not a tight wad whether winning or losing. Just tip a little more after a good play. As to whether they think I'm counting? They might have a suspicion but the cool ones stay silent. And I'll never tell.

 

[toastblows]

I had a dealer at a poker room bitching to the whole table about how he wasnt here to make $5.15/hr....meaning he thought we were lousy tippers.

Yes they want you to win because you are more likely to tip if you win. I think very few care if you are counting/using other AP or not. Some may have motives to "get ahead" with management, but I think the PB and Sky are well aware of most things regardless of the dealer. You wouldnt be a dealer if it werent for the tips, so anything to put the player in the "tipping" mood should be their motive for going to work and doing a professional rate job. Minimum wage isn't a real motivator is what im saying, and narc'ing on the people who tip is a great way to stay at the bottom of the pay scale as a dealer.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

I had a dealer at a poker room bitching to the whole table about how he wasnt here to make $5.15/hr....meaning he thought we were lousy tippers.

Yes they want you to win because you are more likely to tip if you win. I think very few care if you are counting/using other AP or not. Some may have motives to "get ahead" with management, but I think the PB and Sky are well aware of most things regardless of the dealer. You wouldnt be a dealer if it werent for the tips, so anything to put the player in the "tipping" mood should be their motive for going to work and doing a professional rate job. Minimum wage isn't a real motivator is what im saying, and narc'ing on the people who tip is a great way to stay at the bottom of the pay scale as a dealer.

Interesting.

 

[EasyRhino]

I don't particularly like it. Because it means that when you encounter a need for a index play of standing with a stiff, it means that:

1) You're at a huge disadvantage.
2) You've put out an elevated bet.
3) You can't even surrender.

... and I'll admit I'm weak, but I don't like losing money. And choosing between an expectation of losing 80% of my big bet vs only losing 78% of my big bet just really doesn't twirl my propeller (I just made up those percentages BTW).

So, it's nice to win on those hands, but it's just dumb luck.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

I don't particularly like it. Because it means that when you encounter a need for a index play of standing with a stiff, it means that:

1) You're at a huge disadvantage.
2) You've put out an elevated bet.
3) You can't even surrender.

... and I'll admit I'm weak, but I don't like losing money. And choosing between an expectation of losing 80% of my big bet vs only losing 78% of my big bet just really doesn't twirl my propeller (I just made up those percentages BTW).

So, it's nice to win on those hands, but it's just dumb luck.

Well lets see; If it is plus six TC and I get sixteen against dealers ten up card am nearly dead meat if I hit. Probably dead the other way too, but under those circumstances am loathe to "die by my own sword". For the up card of seven through eight though the percentages seem more promising to me. I just don't know how many neutral cards are left. There could be a lot of them. So dealer could have a a seven under that eight. A likely bust scenario.

What I need to start doing is Zen's "coin flip" on all stiff hands. Forget about which way the quarter lands. It's all for show. I know in advance what I'm going to do. However if I flip a coin upon hitting a stiff in a neutral or low count then it appears more consistent to stay on 16 against dealers high up card during very positive sessions.

 

[rogue1]

dealers

I've had sessions where I was certain the dealer knew I was counting cards-tip them accordingly and they usually don't give a rip.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Today (of course) I only stay on a stiff hand against dealers high card in a fairly positive count. Yet it's always fun to see the dealer go bust. She'll say: "Nice stay".

16 vs 10 @ +anything
16 vs 9 @ +5
15 vs 10 @ +5

fyi, those are the only times you would stand, unless the count is very high.. i say this because you say you stand on "stiff hands" against a "high card" in a "fairly positive" count, which sounds to me like at +3 your standing on at least half your stiffs.. i dont know any indexes over +5, since i just use ill 18, but im guessing that something like 15 vs 7, the count would have to be insanely high

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

16 vs 10 @ +anything
16 vs 9 @ +5
15 vs 10 @ +5

fyi, those are the only times you would stand, unless the count is very high.. i say this because you say you stand on "stiff hands" against a "high card" in a "fairly positive" count, which sounds to me like at +3 your standing on at least half your stiffs.. i dont know any indexes over +5, since i just use ill 18, but im guessing that something like 15 vs 7, the count would have to be insanely high

16 vs 10 @ +anything??? Now that sounds a trifle odd. The others I agree with but only on an intuitive level.

I'm more inclined to stay on 16 vs 9 @ at plus 3 or so. Instead of waiting on plus 5 which happens more infrequently. Ditto 15 vs 10. Just a feeling. One not necessarily founded in stats through billions of hands. I can't be giving up much EV either way, no?

There are those times when I'd like to know just how many neutral cards (7,8, & 9) are left in the deck through some sort of side count or discard tray analysis. Something that doesn't require brains of a Rubix cube expert.

Cause if I know the remaining shoe is heavy in neutral cards too it makes the dealers bust chances with seven or eight up cards higher. At least with the eight and nines waiting at high TC.

 

[aslan]

I had a dealer at a poker room bitching to the whole table about how he wasnt here to make $5.15/hr....meaning he thought we were lousy tippers.

Yes they want you to win because you are more likely to tip if you win. I think very few care if you are counting/using other AP or not. Some may have motives to "get ahead" with management, but I think the PB and Sky are well aware of most things regardless of the dealer. You wouldnt be a dealer if it werent for the tips, so anything to put the player in the "tipping" mood should be their motive for going to work and doing a professional rate job. Minimum wage isn't a real motivator is what im saying, and narc'ing on the people who tip is a great way to stay at the bottom of the pay scale as a dealer.

Most places I've been share tips. In some of these places there are dealers who appear to take delight in busting the table. They don't smile and they slam the cards down as if to say they have the ability to crush you. I love it when they bust hand after hand themselves. :laugh: I wonder if the other dealers ever catch on to what some of their colleagues are doing to their total tip count? There oughta be a law!

 

[zengrifter]

16 vs 10 @ +anything??? Now that sounds a trifle odd. The others I agree with but only on an intuitive level.

I'm more inclined to stay on 16 vs 9 @ at plus 3 or so. Instead of waiting on plus 5 which happens more infrequently. Ditto 15 vs 10. Just a feeling. One not necessarily founded in stats through billions of hands. I can't be giving up much EV either way, no?.

Stand 16 v. 10 @ ZERO. zg

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

Stand 16 v. 10 @ ZERO. zg

Thank you Zen. However are Bob's other remarks along the lines of what you said? In Hi/Lo that is?
Like:

16 vs 10 @ +anything
16 vs 9 @ +5
15 vs 10 @ +5

Seems to me 16 vs. 9 is very similar statistically to 16 vs. 10. That so it seems a jump of +5 TC (to stay) is quite a bump.

Now is there a point where one might stay on the lower stiff hand against dealer's up card?

Like

12 vs 10 or
13 vs. 10?

Probably gave to be a very high count. So far I've been hitting these twelves and thirteens with good enough luck even in the highest TC hands.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

16 vs 10 @ +anything??? Now that sounds a trifle odd. The others I agree with but only on an intuitive level.

I'm more inclined to stay on 16 vs 9 @ at plus 3 or so. Instead of waiting on plus 5 which happens more infrequently. Ditto 15 vs 10. Just a feeling. One not necessarily founded in stats through billions of hands. I can't be giving up much EV either way, no?

There are those times when I'd like to know just how many neutral cards (7,8, & 9) are left in the deck through some sort of side count or discard tray analysis. Something that doesn't require brains of a Rubix cube expert.

Cause if I know the remaining shoe is heavy in neutral cards too it makes the dealers bust chances with seven or eight up cards higher. At least with the eight and nines waiting at high TC.

you stand on 16 vs 10 if the RUN COUNT is greater than zero, aka "plus anything".. but you are right, if you stood on 16 vs 9 at +3 instead of +5, it probably wouldnt cost you much at all

Thank you Zen. However are Bob's other remarks along the lines of what you said? In Hi/Lo that is?
Like:

16 vs 10 @ +anything
16 vs 9 @ +5
15 vs 10 @ +5

Seems to me 16 vs. 9 is very similar statistically to 16 vs. 10. That so it seems a jump of +5 TC (to stay) is quite a bump.

Now is there a point where one might stay on the lower stiff hand against dealer's up card?

Like

12 vs 10 or
13 vs. 10?

Probably gave to be a very high count. So far I've been hitting these twelves and thirteens with good enough luck even in the highest TC hands.

16 vs 9 is quite different than 16 vs 10 from what i have seen in terms of indexes.. and no, you would never stand on 13 vs 10 i dont believe, and by that i mean in terms of most frequent/important indexes, 13 vs 10 would probably be like #46 or something

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

you stand on 16 vs 10 if the RUN COUNT is greater than zero, aka "plus anything".. but you are right, if you stood on 16 vs 9 at +3 instead of +5, it probably wouldnt cost you much at all



16 vs 9 is quite different than 16 vs 10 from what i have seen in terms of indexes.. and no, you would never stand on 13 vs 10 i dont believe, and by that i mean in terms of most frequent/important indexes, 13 vs 10 would probably be like #46 or something

Try as i might i can't figure why a nine up card is much different from dealers ten. In fact it could be described as bad or worse than a ten when you hit your stiff against it. Reason? Well if he has the ace hole card he's got a 20. We don't hit against dealer's ace under ten because he's already won the hand. Unless we push with a natural too.

So a pat hand for nine is

9/8
9/9
9/10
9/J
9/Q
9/K
9/A

Seven winning hands against players stiff. No different than the ten up card. The same seven hands. We don't count the ace under dealers ten up card because he's already collected our chips by then. So we never draw against dealer's natural.

Therefor excluding stiff hands of 9/7 or less the dealer appears to have the same advantage with nine up card as with the ten. At least when you draw against it.

Certainly you could wear the brain out figuring multiple hand combinations under dealers nine up card but these still should work out roughly the same as the ten.

Therefor if one is supposed to stay on 16 vs. dealers 10 at +anything it makes no sense to raise the bar to +3 to stay with 16 against dealers 9 up card.

 

[EasyRhino]

Well, in just thinking about it, this is where "assuming the dealer has a ten underneath" helps explain things.

If you have 16v10, there is an extremely good chance the dealer has a 20. This means that even if you don't bust when you hit, if you draw A, 2, or 3, you still lose. A 4 will push, and a 5 will win. It's pretty grim. That's why it's so often the better play to just not hit, and hope for a dealer bust.

Now, with 16v9, the odds of winning vs a pat dealer hand all shift down. You lose with A or 2, you push on 3, you win with 4 or 5. It's slightly more worth it to go for it.

... btw, last weekend I had quite a few cases of being stuck with 16v10 and 15v10 in substantially positive counts. And I did end up winning more than my fair share when I was standing on them. I started to look like some sort of ploppy savant.

 

[Kasi]

Therefor if one is supposed to stay on 16 vs. dealers 10 at +anything it makes no sense to raise the bar to +3 to stay with 16 against dealers 9 up card.

No it doesn't. That's why the bar is TC +5.

Now that you know stop doing it at +3.

Will you?

And if you don't know the index number maybe just revert to BS.

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

No it doesn't. That's why the bar is TC +5.

Now that you know stop doing it at +3.

Will you?

And if you don't know the index number maybe just revert to BS.

Oh I don't have any problem with the indexes. It's more the urge to not die by my own hand in stiff hands at higher TC's. 12 through 14 i don't have much trouble hitting. With fifteen at +2 against 9 though it gives me the shakes just thinking about it. Doesn't seem like I'm giving up much edge by just staying.