Double on 12?

[Hinoon]

Ok, I know, stupid question....but it's been a boring day. My mind has wandered, and I got to thinking....most of the indices and such teach me how to take advantage of a +TC by altering my betting and my BS in accordance to the count. But no one (to my knowledge) discusses the inevitable -TC, and how you should alter your BS to maximize your statistical edge. Look, I know, you're not supposed to play in a negative count. You're supposed wong out, etc. But sometimes you can't.

Sometimes you've gotta play through a negative count. Current wisdom says; in a negative count, bet your minimum, and don't stray from BS.

Well, suppose you're in that situation, and you get a 12. Is there some wisdom to taking into consideration a really high - count and doubling down? If the table is full, and everyone gets 20's but you, the count can drop pretty fast.

If I know there's a smaller chance of busting with a 10, doesn't that give me a greater chance of getting a winning hand?

Any of you out there with the capabilities of running sims or explaining the math behind this have any thoughts?

I'm just thinking out loud because...well, it's what I do.

*preparing to duck and cover*

 

[The Mayor]

OK, you can duck -- but the Double on 12 IS the cover.

This is a classic play -- with your min bet out, 12 vs. 5 or 12. vs. 6, super negative count, the double is almost equal EV to the hit in pure $$$ terms, and looks about as lame as anyone could possibly imagine. Yes, it loses a bit more, but hey, if it buys you several hours of positive EV play, why not?

My most amazing play: I doubled on T-T vs. the dealer's 6. I did not split, I DOUBLED!!! The count was hugely negative and I had a $5 bet out. Unfortunately, I caught an Ace and won the hand and they were SURE I was tracking aces after that 8-(

Sometimes the best ideas backfire.

--Mayor

 

[Panthercounter]

I have successfully doubled on 12 v dealer 5 or 6 in single deck games with minus 4 or less using k-o. I even doubled on a 13 once v dealer 6 with a minus 6 count. This moves really gets the dealer looking. I would only do this in single deck with the minimum out there and with strong confidence in my count.

 

[learning to count]

"I have successfully doubled on 12 v dealer 5 or 6 in single deck games with minus 4 or less using k-o. I even doubled on a 13 once v dealer 6 with a minus 6 count. This moves really gets the dealer looking. I would only do this in single deck with the minimum out there and with strong confidence in my count."

Hey cuz thats a gutsy move and I have seen you do it; but for the sake of discussion. I looked up your numbers in the book and from what I can interpret the strategy is to hit not double 12 vs 5/<=0 and 6/<=0. I think doubling is a risk at a negative count because the dealer can get small cards as well to strengthen his hand.

I dont have a problem using this as a cover with the minimum bet out but I will smack ya in the head if you try with anything more on the table. You should have smacked me when I hit that 12 on that nuetral count last trip out! We gotta help each other at those insane boredom moments!

 

[Yaada]

Interesting Im glad someone brought this up. I did another scouting mission at a casino just 15 mins outside of town. It was a very small casino at a local truck stop. It only had 2 BJ tables. Anyways, I noticed a guy doubling on 12. I thought it was odd especially when he hit an 8.

Now heres the real kicker - a few nights ago while in another casino (girlfriend was in a month end BJ tournament) I had played a little before her tournament. I saw some idiot double on a 6,2 and he hit an 10. Huhh???!?!?!? I was so shocked I dont even remember if he won his hand. I kept staring at his cards to make sure I did not have some mental relapse and to make sure I was not imagining it. And no the 6 was not mistaken for a 9 either. That was my second thought. Like I said I stared at the top upper corner of the cards and made sure it was a 6,2. I practically fell out of my chair. Now all the reading Ive done Ive never heard or even seen something like that.
Any thoughts?