Double-Shot side bet

[the Stealth]

Mayor, I encountered this interesting little addition to a game I found yesterday. Maybe you know of it. 2 circles up front for side bets on if player bj's and/or if dealer bj's the round. Side bets from 2 - 10 for one or both spots.

I was betting both when there were a large amount of aces yet to show up from a 6D shoe and a tc of 5. I certainly made some extra $ with it. But didn't keep track of how much in proportion to investments lost. Just guess work though. Wasn't sure how much to bet (2-10). "Heat" a concern too.

I'm using the Advanced Omega II w/side c. of aces. I was hoping you had some general tc numbers we could all use to take advantage of this extra little cash cow.

15 to 1 for any unsuited
21 to 1 for any suited
50 to 1 for any match with dealer for ace-jack spades or ace-jack clubs.

If I'm not correct on the latter, somebody let me know.

Stealth

 

[The Mayor]

Usually this bet is only allowed in Single deck, and only for the first hand dealt off the top. This is certainly beatable, I may run a sim, or I may not (-- time will tell --) but if you honestly found a 16-1 payoff for BJ, then you have a bet you can beat. Too bad the max on it is only $10, I would play it for table max with sufficiently high count.

There are specialized counts that could beat this very effectively as well, as the odds of a BJ increase when ANY of the cards 2-9 are played, so each of these has an equal EOR. Clearly T,J,Q,K have equal EOR, but the EOR of an Ace is roughly 4 times that of a T,J,Q,K. So, a simple balanced count might look like:

2-9 +1
T,J,Q,K: -1
A: -4

This would be my best guess at an "optimal" count ...

Now, only a sim will tell...

--Mayor

 

[The Mayor]

Here is a simple calculation. If we have a standard single deck, and remove 8 of the cards (any 8) that are from the 2-9 range, then we have a TC of +8 with the count system above. Given that, the remainder of the deck is:

24 2's - 9's
16 T,J,Q,K
4 A

Thus, the probability of BJ with this deck is:

(16/44)*(4/43)*2 = .06765. This corresponds to odds of 13.78 to 1. So, at least in this case, you have a huge edge.

Let's compute it...

Non-suited BJ = .75*(.06765) = .0507
Suited BJ = .25*(.06765) = .0169
No Blackjack = 1 - .06765 = .9324

Now, for your 1 unit bet, your EV is:

15*(.0507) + 21*(.0169) + (-1)*(.9324) = +.1154 = +11.54%

This does not account for the very unlikely double BJ match.

So... with the count above, and a +8 TC, you have an 11.54% edge
over the house. I am not sure what the cutoff is for an edge, so
let's look at a +6 just for fun...

Calculations like the above, removing 6 low cards, gives:

BJ = (16/46)*(4/45)*2 = .06184
Non-suited BJ = .04638
Suited BJ = .01546
No BJ = .93816

EV (at +6 TC) = 15*(.04638) + 21*(.01546) + (-1)*.93816 = +.02036 = +2.036%

So, it looks like you have an edge at a +6 TC as well.

A linear interpolation shows that you gain/lose about 4.5% per TC using the count above, so at a +5 TC this has a house edge of about 2.5%.

I am sure a +6 TC gives you a similar advantage on a shoe game.

This analysis is in lieu of a sim,

--Mayor

 

[the Stealth]

Mayor, thanks for running that for me/us. Only problem now is whether or not to make the counting switch. Switching back and forth is a little harsh on the mind for me still. I can imagine I will be doing something like this: +1+2+4=?-3#@$45%,.<<>>&-1AA??????????? My point is that I finally got the Advanced Omega w/A side, up to speed and it works. However, with a little practice, I could switch just for this game. But, is worth the extra effort? We can't forget about a count for betting, play of the hand, indices etc. We still have to play bj. Given we can't do our side bets for more than $10, shouldn't we stay with our regular playing count? I'm assuming the Omega is a lot better for play of the hand. Maybe my regular count can still be successful for the side bets even though it is not perfect. I'm guessing maybe a +7 tc with some amount of extra aces over the average left in the pack. What would be best is a team of 2 or more with 2 types of counts. Right?

Your comments please.

Stealth

 

[The Mayor]

A team of 2 is optimal.

--Mayor