Dr. J and his Parlay

[gamblingghost]

I like to start the new year off by looking at this. In Blackjack For Blood on page 173 is Dr. J's Perfect Parlay. He starts off by spreading 5 to 25. In ten 12 hr. sessions he wins $2400. He bumps up to 10-50 spread. In 24 twelve hr. sessions he wins $11k. He bumps up to 25-100 spread. In 9 sessions he wins 20k. Now he bumps up to 50-200 spread. In 39 sessions he wins... a bunch!! Then he bumps up to 100-400 spread. In 47 sessions about 12 hrs. each session he has now won over a 250k. Talk about grist for the mill!
Now, what are the odds of doing this? I think it is my turn!

 

[shadroch]

I like to start the new year off by looking at this. In Blackjack For Blood on page 173 is Dr. J's Perfect Parlay. He starts off by spreading 5 to 25. In ten 12 hr. sessions he wins $2400. He bumps up to 10-50 spread. In 24 twelve hr. sessions he wins $11k. He bumps up to 25-100 spread. In 9 sessions he wins 20k. Now he bumps up to 50-200 spread. In 39 sessions he wins... a bunch!! Then he bumps up to 100-400 spread. In 47 sessions about 12 hrs. each session he has now won over a 250k. Talk about grist for the mill!
Now, what are the odds of doing this? I think it is my turn!

I've been spreading 5-25 for at least a few years, and my total winnings aren't 11k. I guess I'm due.

 

[zengrifter]

Mods: move thread to Counting forum. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Now, what are the odds of doing this?

About 100-1

 

[jack.jackson]

I like to start the new year off by looking at this. In Blackjack For Blood on page 173 is Dr. J's Perfect Parlay. He starts off by spreading 5 to 25. In ten 12 hr. sessions he wins $2400. He bumps up to 10-50 spread. In 24 twelve hr. sessions he wins $11k. He bumps up to 25-100 spread. In 9 sessions he wins 20k. Now he bumps up to 50-200 spread. In 39 sessions he wins... a bunch!! Then he bumps up to 100-400 spread. In 47 sessions about 12 hrs. each session he has now won over a 250k. Talk about grist for the mill!
Now, what are the odds of doing this? I think it is my turn!

Doesnt Gladys use Ho2?

 

[gamblingghost]

Doesnt Gladys use Ho2?

Indeed, she would takes Franks whiskey to the restroom. Hmm, strange place to drink.

100 to 1 eh. I still have a prayer then.

 

[jack.jackson]

Indeed, she would takes Franks whiskey to the restroom. Hmm, strange place to drink.

100 to 1 eh. I still have a prayer then.

Ya, but yet Frank kept falling out of his chair off Gin and Tonic :laugh: Kidding aside I think it was actually RAPC 73 version, that they banked on. It was done with mostly single and double deck play with good rules. Not sure it could be done with todays rules or todays heat. But one, with the right skill and effort could come close with the right act. On paper, in practice, my numbers are just as good as theirs. Currently building my BR up.

 

[gamblingghost]

Ya, but yet Frank kept falling out of his chair off Gin and Tonic :laugh: Kidding aside I think it was actually RAPC 73 version, that they banked on. It was done with mostly single and double deck play with good rules. Not sure it could be done with todays rules or todays heat. But one, with the right skill and effort could come close with the right act. On paper, in practice, my numbers are just as good as theirs. Currently building my BR up.

Does that translate to today's standards makes it about 1 in a thousand?!
Boy, no inspiration here. I mean, "on paper" you can do it. But Mr. Shadroch, in reality, is not. Me either, in reality, but on paper, whew look out! I mean, I have losing streaks, I don't see any in J's parlay.

 

[The Chaperone]

I'm not sure when that book was written, but this would have been much more possible back then. In fact, I would think a skilled player would be able to do this with the old lower heat single deck games back in the 70s or whatever. Of course players back then didn't have the same resources as we do today and thus were probably not as skilled (just as the casinos weren't as skilled).

I will say when I started in 2003-04, I grew a 3k bankroll up to about 150k in about the same number of hours. At that point, I moved on to other things. I do still play a decent amount of BJ (though there have been many hiatuses) and I am up over a million lifetime gambling. So the story isn't that far fetched IMO.

One issue is there aren't many places that are ideal for getting started as a red chipper. I'm guessing anywhere that offered gambling would have been ideal for a red chipper way back when. When I started the many 5-100 (and later 200 max) mediocre rules, good pen, low heat games I had available to me in the Seattle area were fairly ideal for a red chipper. These days WA is anything but ideal for any type of advantage play. Things change quickly, and particularly when getting started it's more about being in the right place at the right time than anything else. These days I have the resources to research and travel the country to play the best games.

Happy New Year. I'm off to drink.

 

[gamblingghost]

I'm not sure when that book was written, but this would have been much more possible back then. In fact, I would think a skilled player would be able to do this with the old lower heat single deck games back in the 70s or whatever. Of course players back then didn't have the same resources as we do today and thus were probably not as skilled (just as the casinos weren't as skilled).

I will say when I started in 2003-04, I grew a 3k bankroll up to about 150k in about the same number of hours. At that point, I moved on to other things. I do still play a decent amount of BJ (though there have been many hiatuses) and I am up over a million lifetime gambling. So the story isn't that far fetched IMO.

One issue is there aren't many places that are ideal for getting started as a red chipper. I'm guessing anywhere that offered gambling would have been ideal for a red chipper way back when. When I started the many 5-100 (and later 200 max) mediocre rules, good pen, low heat games I had available to me in the Seattle area were fairly ideal for a red chipper. These days WA is anything but ideal for any type of advantage play. Things change quickly, and particularly when getting started it's more about being in the right place at the right time than anything else. These days I have the resources to research and travel the country to play the best games.

Happy New Year. I'm off to drink.

Wow! 3k to over a mil in only 6 or 7 years! That is waaay better story than Dr. Js! So, you never experience long losing streaks either? I'm obviously doing something wrong. Well, you said what it is, I'm not in the right place, at the right time??

 

[The Chaperone]

Well my BR is not nearly so big. I've also had 7 years of taxes and expenses as well as one (most likely) failed investment and one bankrolling arrangement that left someone owing me a decent chunk of change. It's certainly not all roses. Even making a million at this can be a rocky road. My worst losing streak was about a half mill but that wasn't blackjack. My worst BJ losing streak was probably something around 100k ish, but I've had many of those including a couple that took place in less than a week. I suppose I've been lucky to not have a losing streak worse than that. My worst runs at BJ have been more of the break even for long periods of time type (i.e. breaking even over a 500-1000 hour period).

Lastly, I don't consider making a million gambling full time over 7 years to be a huge success. In fact with as much time, effort, and risk I've put into this, I'm sometimes rather embarrassed with how little I've made. I definitely know people who have made more than me in less time. I'd say my making 150k from a 3k bankroll in less than a year was more impressive than making a million with a six figure bankroll in 7 years.

 

[Alvaro]

Starting with 500, and ending up with 250k. ..

I think I would not include that story on any Bj book.

It could confuse beginners.

But Carlson's book is good for me.

 

[gamblingghost]

Starting with 500, and ending up with 250k. ..

I think I would not include that story on any Bj book.

It could confuse beginners.

But Carlson's book is good for me.

I don't think it says what they started with but for sure after they won 2400 they doubled their spread so I guess they started with 2500.

Perhaps it would have added balance if he told a story of a 'competent' player starting with say, 150 max bet units and went bust. Or, perhaps there aren't any of those stories out there!?

 

[Alvaro]

I don't think it says what they started with but for sure after they won 2400 they doubled their spread so I guess they started with 2500.

pag. 172 Frank says that. Yet...looking the colum is like you are saying, so they may started with 2500.

Perhaps it would have added balance if he told a story of a 'competent' player starting with say, 150 max bet units and went bust. Or, perhaps there aren't any of those stories out there!?

completely agree.

 

[aslan]

Lastly, I don't consider making a million gambling full time over 7 years to be a huge success. In fact with as much time, effort, and risk I've put into this, I'm sometimes rather embarrassed with how little I've made. I definitely know people who have made more than me in less time. I'd say my making 150k from a 3k bankroll in less than a year was more impressive than making a million with a six figure bankroll in 7 years.

A GS-15 in the federal government makes $1 million in 7 years and with virtually no risk. There are hundreds of thousands of professionals who do this -- managers, lawyers, accountants, engineers. But to make $1 million in 7 years by way of gambling is not really very commonplace by comparison. Certainly not in the tens or hundreds of thousands. Can you name 100 persons who net $150K a year, year in and year out solely from gambling? I can't, but I'm sure several thousand do. I think it is a noteworthy accomplishment to consistently make such money from gambling, except maybe those who use a large bankroll from non-gambling sources to achieve this level of gambling income. Naturally, the more you have to bet, the easier it is to create a handsome gambling income.

 

[zengrifter]

I started in 2003-04, I grew a 3k bankroll up to about 150k in about the same number of hours.

Based on your math-knowledge of BJ and counting,
how much do you attribute luck to that result? zg

 

[The Chaperone]

Based on your math-knowledge of BJ and counting,
how much do you attribute luck to that result? zg

It's hard to say. I'm sure I could do it again given the same conditions knowing what I know now. That being said, I didn't know nearly as much back then and was lucky not to fall into certain traps. Also, of note is the conditions don't exist in my home location anymore like they did back then.

I think I was a little lucky to never go broke early on. I recall some amateurish type mistakes, but one thing that I was very strict about was wonging out of negative counts. This is probably what saved me and it's also something I could easily see new players not doing.

I'm honestly not sure what I would have done had I gone broke. I had a day job back then with a very meager salary. Saving up another 3k would have taken me a year or so. I'm very stubborn so I think I would have kept trying, but it's hard to say. Also if I didn't get off the ground until a few years later, the conditions may have deteriorated to the point that I never would have made a career out of it.