Enhanced KO--Full system for Indiana trip

Knox

Well-Known Member
I found the KO system pretty easy to learn so I thought I would take it to the next level and learn the full matrix for 6 decks. I started out trying to make flash cards for the exact count at which to depart from basic strategy. I ended up with 26 cards, 18 for regular plays (probably corresponds to the illustrious 18) and 8 for surrender (counting 8s v 10).

The first thing I noticed was that I had a lot of odd numbers that would probably not be practical for me to memorize. The thing about KO is most of the index plays come in at +4, or 24 above the initial running count (RC) of -20. I spend a lot more time playing at counts between they key count of -4 (trigger to increase bets and first index play of stay on 16 v 10) and +4 than I do at counts above +4 (the so-called "Pivot Point").

I decided that instead of dealing with all of the odd numbers, I would work in increments of 4 to further refine the KO system. Here is what I came up with:

-12 or less: Hit 13 v 2, don't surrender 16 v 9
-8 or less: Hit 12 v 4, don't surrender 15 v 10, Hit on 16 v 10 (or always surrender if allowed)
-4 or more: Stay on 12 v 3, surrender 8s v 10,Double 9 v 2
Zero or more: Double 11 v A, Stay on 12 v 2, Double 8 v 6, Surrender 14 v 10, surrender 15 v 9 or A
+4 or more: Double 9 v 7, Double 10 v 10 or A, Double 8 v 5, Stay 15 v 10 (if surrender not allowed as above)
+8 or more: Double 8 v 4, stay on 16 v 9, surrender 16 v 8 and 14 v A
+12 or more: Stay on 14 v 10
+16 or more Stay on 16 v 8 or A

I think these adjustments are worth the extra effort to learn. Some of the differences are noteworthy:

The 13 v 2 and 12 v 4 plays are omitted in the KO book for the 6-deck game. I figure they would at least make good cover plays.

The dreaded 16 v 10 play: In a game without surrender, regular KO has you hitting it more often than you should (-4 count vs -8 above).

The dreaded 12 v 2 or 3: Regular KO requires that you wait until the +4 pivot point to stay on these hands. You should actually stay once the count reaches zero or -4, respectively. No wonder I have busting these so often with a 10!

Doubling: most of the doubling index plays still come at the pivot point (+4). However, we see that there are several cases where we should be doubling sooner! 9 v 2 comes at the key count of -4. At a zero count, we should now be doubling 11 v A and 8 v 6.

I realize this analysis is a bit hard to read with surrender mixed in. If you are playing without surrender it is easy enough to take it out. From what is left, I think you will see that there is some nice benefit from learning just a few deviations from regular KO to improve playing efficiency. My guess is a gain of at least 0.10% The KO book seems to imply about a 0.20% gain from learning the full system, but I have done a little rounding and I think they tend to be optimistic.

So I have tried to compute my expectation for this Indiana trip, with 6 decks, S17, DAS, lsr, spread of 1-5 with KO kelly preferred wagering. KO preferred with a 1-10 spread claims a 0.73% advantage. They don't state an expectation for 1-5 spreads, but it is 0.36% without kelly wagering and you gain 0.07% with it on the 1-10 spread. So let's estimate 0.40% and adjust from there. I will be wonging out of bad shoes so that has to be worth at least 0.10% (if not 0.20%). Late surrender should worth at least 0.10% (and some have told me that might be closer to 0.20% for a counter). And the aforementioned 0.10% gain in playing expectation from using the full, slightly rounded index.

That comes out to 0.70%, and like I said I think that is conservative. It may be closer to 1%.

Now is the time for my wise fellow counters to poke holes in my analysis. I appreciate your insights. Please refrain from bashing my 1-5 spread. I am fully aware that I can increase my EV (and definitely my variance) by doing that. When I am ready for a 1-10 spread (or if I find a $5 table), I will implement it.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
Why are you trying to reinvent the wheel?
He's not really reinventing the wheel, just making it rounder. It can be easier to memorize indices when you group them together, and "fudging the numbers" up or down a bit doesn't really hurt you very much. I think ZenGrifter mentioned that in his interview somewhere. Being off by 1 or 2 is still better than not knowing the play at all.

I'm not familiar with the regular index numbers for KO, but his plan seems solid to me.

-Sonny-
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Knox said:
..........

So I have tried to compute my expectation for this Indiana trip, with 6 decks, S17, DAS, lsr, spread of 1-5 with KO kelly preferred wagering. KO preferred with a 1-10 spread claims a 0.73% advantage. They don't state an expectation for 1-5 spreads, but it is 0.36% without kelly wagering and you gain 0.07% with it on the 1-10 spread. So let's estimate 0.40% and adjust from there. I will be wonging out of bad shoes so that has to be worth at least 0.10% (if not 0.20%). Late surrender should worth at least 0.10% (and some have told me that might be closer to 0.20% for a counter).
..............
as i recall of the three casinos near Cincy there is only one casino with one table offering lsr for a six deck shoe. that is the table at Grand Vic that has the three card poker bet hooked up with it. it is almost always a full table. the rest of their tables are eight deck with lsr. Argosy has a lot of six decks but no lsr.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 

Knox

Well-Known Member
Hi Senor Frog:

I think you said that Belterra also MIGHT offer lsr. I will stop there first and see. If not, I will head for the Grand Vic. I should be there in early afternoon tomorrow, so I am hoping on a Tuesday at that time it's not too crowded. If I don't find any S17 lsr games between those two, I am left with Argosy, with S17 only and plenty of six-deck games. That is playable for me, in fact I have not yet lost under those conditions.

I'll take some notes about the conditions and report back soon.

Knox
 
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