I found the KO system pretty easy to learn so I thought I would take it to the next level and learn the full matrix for 6 decks. I started out trying to make flash cards for the exact count at which to depart from basic strategy. I ended up with 26 cards, 18 for regular plays (probably corresponds to the illustrious 18) and 8 for surrender (counting 8s v 10).
The first thing I noticed was that I had a lot of odd numbers that would probably not be practical for me to memorize. The thing about KO is most of the index plays come in at +4, or 24 above the initial running count (RC) of -20. I spend a lot more time playing at counts between they key count of -4 (trigger to increase bets and first index play of stay on 16 v 10) and +4 than I do at counts above +4 (the so-called "Pivot Point").
I decided that instead of dealing with all of the odd numbers, I would work in increments of 4 to further refine the KO system. Here is what I came up with:
-12 or less: Hit 13 v 2, don't surrender 16 v 9
-8 or less: Hit 12 v 4, don't surrender 15 v 10, Hit on 16 v 10 (or always surrender if allowed)
-4 or more: Stay on 12 v 3, surrender 8s v 10,Double 9 v 2
Zero or more: Double 11 v A, Stay on 12 v 2, Double 8 v 6, Surrender 14 v 10, surrender 15 v 9 or A
+4 or more: Double 9 v 7, Double 10 v 10 or A, Double 8 v 5, Stay 15 v 10 (if surrender not allowed as above)
+8 or more: Double 8 v 4, stay on 16 v 9, surrender 16 v 8 and 14 v A
+12 or more: Stay on 14 v 10
+16 or more Stay on 16 v 8 or A
I think these adjustments are worth the extra effort to learn. Some of the differences are noteworthy:
The 13 v 2 and 12 v 4 plays are omitted in the KO book for the 6-deck game. I figure they would at least make good cover plays.
The dreaded 16 v 10 play: In a game without surrender, regular KO has you hitting it more often than you should (-4 count vs -8 above).
The dreaded 12 v 2 or 3: Regular KO requires that you wait until the +4 pivot point to stay on these hands. You should actually stay once the count reaches zero or -4, respectively. No wonder I have busting these so often with a 10!
Doubling: most of the doubling index plays still come at the pivot point (+4). However, we see that there are several cases where we should be doubling sooner! 9 v 2 comes at the key count of -4. At a zero count, we should now be doubling 11 v A and 8 v 6.
I realize this analysis is a bit hard to read with surrender mixed in. If you are playing without surrender it is easy enough to take it out. From what is left, I think you will see that there is some nice benefit from learning just a few deviations from regular KO to improve playing efficiency. My guess is a gain of at least 0.10% The KO book seems to imply about a 0.20% gain from learning the full system, but I have done a little rounding and I think they tend to be optimistic.
So I have tried to compute my expectation for this Indiana trip, with 6 decks, S17, DAS, lsr, spread of 1-5 with KO kelly preferred wagering. KO preferred with a 1-10 spread claims a 0.73% advantage. They don't state an expectation for 1-5 spreads, but it is 0.36% without kelly wagering and you gain 0.07% with it on the 1-10 spread. So let's estimate 0.40% and adjust from there. I will be wonging out of bad shoes so that has to be worth at least 0.10% (if not 0.20%). Late surrender should worth at least 0.10% (and some have told me that might be closer to 0.20% for a counter). And the aforementioned 0.10% gain in playing expectation from using the full, slightly rounded index.
That comes out to 0.70%, and like I said I think that is conservative. It may be closer to 1%.
Now is the time for my wise fellow counters to poke holes in my analysis. I appreciate your insights. Please refrain from bashing my 1-5 spread. I am fully aware that I can increase my EV (and definitely my variance) by doing that. When I am ready for a 1-10 spread (or if I find a $5 table), I will implement it.
The first thing I noticed was that I had a lot of odd numbers that would probably not be practical for me to memorize. The thing about KO is most of the index plays come in at +4, or 24 above the initial running count (RC) of -20. I spend a lot more time playing at counts between they key count of -4 (trigger to increase bets and first index play of stay on 16 v 10) and +4 than I do at counts above +4 (the so-called "Pivot Point").
I decided that instead of dealing with all of the odd numbers, I would work in increments of 4 to further refine the KO system. Here is what I came up with:
-12 or less: Hit 13 v 2, don't surrender 16 v 9
-8 or less: Hit 12 v 4, don't surrender 15 v 10, Hit on 16 v 10 (or always surrender if allowed)
-4 or more: Stay on 12 v 3, surrender 8s v 10,Double 9 v 2
Zero or more: Double 11 v A, Stay on 12 v 2, Double 8 v 6, Surrender 14 v 10, surrender 15 v 9 or A
+4 or more: Double 9 v 7, Double 10 v 10 or A, Double 8 v 5, Stay 15 v 10 (if surrender not allowed as above)
+8 or more: Double 8 v 4, stay on 16 v 9, surrender 16 v 8 and 14 v A
+12 or more: Stay on 14 v 10
+16 or more Stay on 16 v 8 or A
I think these adjustments are worth the extra effort to learn. Some of the differences are noteworthy:
The 13 v 2 and 12 v 4 plays are omitted in the KO book for the 6-deck game. I figure they would at least make good cover plays.
The dreaded 16 v 10 play: In a game without surrender, regular KO has you hitting it more often than you should (-4 count vs -8 above).
The dreaded 12 v 2 or 3: Regular KO requires that you wait until the +4 pivot point to stay on these hands. You should actually stay once the count reaches zero or -4, respectively. No wonder I have busting these so often with a 10!
Doubling: most of the doubling index plays still come at the pivot point (+4). However, we see that there are several cases where we should be doubling sooner! 9 v 2 comes at the key count of -4. At a zero count, we should now be doubling 11 v A and 8 v 6.
I realize this analysis is a bit hard to read with surrender mixed in. If you are playing without surrender it is easy enough to take it out. From what is left, I think you will see that there is some nice benefit from learning just a few deviations from regular KO to improve playing efficiency. My guess is a gain of at least 0.10% The KO book seems to imply about a 0.20% gain from learning the full system, but I have done a little rounding and I think they tend to be optimistic.
So I have tried to compute my expectation for this Indiana trip, with 6 decks, S17, DAS, lsr, spread of 1-5 with KO kelly preferred wagering. KO preferred with a 1-10 spread claims a 0.73% advantage. They don't state an expectation for 1-5 spreads, but it is 0.36% without kelly wagering and you gain 0.07% with it on the 1-10 spread. So let's estimate 0.40% and adjust from there. I will be wonging out of bad shoes so that has to be worth at least 0.10% (if not 0.20%). Late surrender should worth at least 0.10% (and some have told me that might be closer to 0.20% for a counter). And the aforementioned 0.10% gain in playing expectation from using the full, slightly rounded index.
That comes out to 0.70%, and like I said I think that is conservative. It may be closer to 1%.
Now is the time for my wise fellow counters to poke holes in my analysis. I appreciate your insights. Please refrain from bashing my 1-5 spread. I am fully aware that I can increase my EV (and definitely my variance) by doing that. When I am ready for a 1-10 spread (or if I find a $5 table), I will implement it.