standard toaster
Well-Known Member
we know even money for a basic strategy player is a bad move but the question is How often %wise will the player actually push on their blackjack.
Even money blackjack
- Thread starter standard toaster
- Start date
standard toaster said:
If you mean how often will a player push his BJ because the dealer also has a BJ, it's around 0.2% of the time. Total time. Once you get a BJ, you'll push about 4% of the time.
Here's a formula for "winning BJ's" for 6D.
2*(96/312)*(24/311)*(1-2*(95/310)*(23/309))=0.0453229877160642
One's pushed BJ's are the difference between that and expected BJ's dealt.
So the difference between 2*(96/312*24/311)=0.0474894880039575
which would be expected BJ's dealt.
Or 0.00216650028789325.
Is that what you were asking?
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Let me put it this way. How often would it be the right move to insure your natural and take even money. Assuming no counting is involved
Never.standard toaster said:
Like I thought you said in your first post - it's a "bad move" for a BS player.
If you mean how often will a BS player "luck" into making the right decision even though he can't count, then it's how often that TC+3 or more or whatever occurs.
Is that what you're asking?
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
Ok let me re word the re wordingKasi said:
Lets say a bs player has played 500,000,000,000 hands. He never took insurance/even money on his blackjack. After he completed the 5 billion hands he wanted to see how many times he ended up pushing his natural. If we added up all the times he pushed and turned it into a percentage what would it be?
~0.2% of the time. It would vary a little based on number of decks.standard toaster said:
The exact number, if 6D, is 0.00216650028789325 of the time like I said. At least that's what I think the exact number would be lol.
Often a big difference between what something actually is and what I think it is lol.
Sorry for the confusion.
standard toaster
Well-Known Member
Oh no thats perfectly fine. You gave me exactly whati was looking for which was the EXACT number. Thank you very muchKasi said:
1357111317
Well-Known Member
When the dealer is showing an Ace your Blackjack will push 30.8% of the time. But I'm sure you knew that already.standard toaster said:
30%
If you play 100 hands, you will get paid on 69 hands and push on 31 hands.
Fred Renzy had an artlicle where he suggested that rather than take even money you should consider betting $5 of insurance for every $25 dollars bet. His theory is that: If delaer has blackjack, you will win $10 with your push but if he doesn't have it, you will still win $32.50 on your blackjack. Your still making better than even money.
With 3 cards played from a single deck, your blackjack and a dealer Ace, there is about a 31% chance that the dealer will get a 10 and you will push.standard toaster said:
If you play 100 hands, you will get paid on 69 hands and push on 31 hands.
Fred Renzy had an artlicle where he suggested that rather than take even money you should consider betting $5 of insurance for every $25 dollars bet. His theory is that: If delaer has blackjack, you will win $10 with your push but if he doesn't have it, you will still win $32.50 on your blackjack. Your still making better than even money.
