Expectation / Actual Value

[dangeroso]

Pardon the newbie question, but how does one correlate expectation versus actual monetary value? For example, If I'm playing at a positive expectation of 1.2%, and betting $10 units, with a 1-5 bet spread, how does that percentage translate directly into monetary expectations? Is it based on the unit bet size, or the spread? How does time factor in?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Sonny]

Your EV is your advantage multiplied by the amount of action you give. If you are betting $10 per hand for an hour (100 hands) then you will have put $1,000 in action. You expect to earn 1.5% of that, which is $15 per hour.

-Sonny-

 

[Renzey]

If I'm playing at a positive expectation of 1.2%, and betting $10 units, with a 1-5 bet spread, how does that percentage translate directly into monetary expectations? Is it based on the unit bet size, or the spread? How does time factor in?

In the example you gave (spreading $10-to-$50 with a +1.2% EV), you need to find your average bet and multiply that by 1.2%. That will be your expected gain per hand. Time factors in with the pace (hands per hour) of your game mode.

BTW, about the only game situation I can think of (be it shoe or pitch) where you'd have a 1.2% EV with a 1-to-5 spread would be backcounting.

 

[SPX]

You'll find the following formula in Snyder's Blackbelt in Blackjack:


average bet x hands per hour x advantage = expected hourly profit

 

[SPX]

BTW, about the only game situation I can think of (be it shoe or pitch) where you'd have a 1.2% EV with a 1-to-5 spread would be backcounting.

You don't think using a 1-5 spread on an SD DOA H17 3:2 game with good penetration would yield an average 1.2% advantage?

 

[dangeroso]

Thanks guys.

1.2% expectation is based upon using the full KO count with the following assumptions:

2 deck game, DOA, no DAS, S17, 75% penetration, 1-5 spread w/ ramp of 3
Source: Appendix III, Knockout Blackjack, Vancura, Olaf PhD, and Ken Fuchs

 

[EasyRhino]

Wow, is that in the KO book? It seems to high.

I wouldn't mind finding one of those games though.