Facedown card assumptions

[apex]

Count was +5 with slightly less than 1 deck left in a pitch game. I have a max bet out and catch a 15(10,5) VS a dealer 10, surrender not available. I believe the index is 5 for that play (just looked it up, its 4), so I am thinking stand. I see a neighbor's cards (4,6) and add the dealer up card. That changed the count to +6. I decide to tuck my cards. As I tuck I notice that 3 other players had also tucked. They were all good BS players. This means they all have at least 17, so I probably should have dropped the count by 3-4 making hitting possibly correct. This is something I will consider in the future when making playing decisions. Do you guys make assumptions of unknown cards in pitch games based on how the hand is played?

 

[Southpaw]

Count was +5 with slightly less than 1 deck left in a pitch game. I have a max bet out and catch a 15(10,5) VS a dealer 10, surrender not available. I believe the index is 5 for that play (just looked it up, its 4), so I am thinking stand. I see a neighbor's cards (4,6) and add the dealer up card. That changed the count to +6. I decide to tuck my cards. As I tuck I notice that 3 other players had also tucked. They were all good BS players. This means they all have at least 17, so I probably should have dropped the count by 3-4 making hitting possibly correct. This is something I will consider in the future when making playing decisions. Do you guys make assumptions of unknown cards in pitch games based on how the hand is played?

This strategy is called counting by inference. There are detailed strategies as to how to score each player's face-down cards, based upon how they hit or stand.

SP

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Assumptions!

Careful, next you will be making assumptions about other unseen cards. This is where I get off! LOL

Yes, you can make assumptions about their hands. They probably had as you believed 17,18,19,20. Don't forget the possiblity of 20 is higher due to all the 10s in the deck.:joker::whip:

good cards

 

[winr_winr_chicken_dinner!]

yep, counting by inference is a valuable tool. especially in those DD games. Just out of curiosity, you lost the hand right?

 

[apex]

Yeah I lost to a dealer 20. To make matters worse, the person behind me hit and got a 6. I guess the blackjack gods wanted me to have a memorable moment to help me learn "Counting by inference" as SP calls it.

 

[QFIT]

See Modern Blackjack pages 495-498.

 

[eandre]

Just a tip, try not to play a full table so counting by inference is not an issue. You can also get away with asking to see your neighbors cards once in a while after screaming,"jeez another 15 against ten...what do you have?" I have also found that sitting mid-table allows for peaking at your neighbors hands.

 

[winr_winr_chicken_dinner!]

Yeah I lost to a dealer 20. To make matters worse, the person behind me hit and got a 6. I guess the blackjack gods wanted me to have a memorable moment to help me learn "Counting by inference" as SP calls it.

awwww mannnn... absolutely hate it when that happens, lol.

 

[Sucker]

Putting this hand in the proper perspective: When a decision is SO borderline that you resort to estimating the cards in the other players' hands; the difference between hitting and standing is miniscule. If your bet was $100, you probably ended up costing yourself a whopping 10 cents in equity.

 

[Southpaw]

Putting this hand in the proper perspective: When a decision is SO borderline that you resort to estimating the cards in the other players' hands; the difference between hitting and standing is miniscule. If your bet was $100, you probably ended up costing yourself a whopping 10 cents in equity.

Seconds to that especially if you are playing a system like Hi-Lo that has a poor a playing efficiency. Moreover, the technique is going to be significantly less effective at a DD table than it would at a SD table.

SP

 

[zengrifter]

See Modern Blackjack pages 495-498.

Putting this hand in the proper perspective: When a decision is SO borderline that you resort to estimating the cards in the other players' hands; the difference between hitting and standing is miniscule. If your bet was $100, you probably ended up costing yourself a whopping 10 cents in equity.

Seconds to that especially if you are playing a system like Hi-Lo that has a poor a playing efficiency. Moreover, the technique is going to be significantly less effective at a DD table than it would at a SD table.

He should just use INTUITION in those moments - ZGI page-4

 

[aslan]

He should just use INTUITION in those moments - ZGI page-4

But whatever you may hope to earn in extra wins, you may lose 'in tuition' payments (to the house) due to the learning curve, that is, if it can really be done at all, and then, only if you can learn to do it. But what you call intuition, may be the prompting of a higher benevolent power, which you would do well to follow, although I wouldn't count on it leading you to riches, only peace and happiness, which contrary to popular belief, can best be achieved in poverty.

But to stay on track, yeah, intuition may have some scientific basis and would have an obvious application in blackjack-- although we're likely a long way from harnessing it successfully, except perhaps an individual here and there.