Fifth outing to AC...alas!

[aslan]

Four consecutive wins and now this! Lost $3,200 playing 6D with decent pen at Borgata. All I can say is, I played perfect BS, counted well, bet when I should, and went down swinging. Began spreading two hands $10 to $75, and ended with two hands $25 to $200 each. All I can say is that although two hands may spread the risk and mitigate variance, you can lose twice as fast, too. Ho-hum! Got real used to busting on every stiff draw and pushing on many good hands. One shoe it looked like I was going to turn it around. I won almost every round and pulled back to $1,200 loser after being down around $2,700. However, I never saw another good shoe. I quit because I was tired and hungry. Not a big morale booster! The only plus was spending the $440 comps on clothing for my wife and myself.

Mulling over the experience:

(1) I did not backcount as I had planned because I could not find an uncrowded table where I could wong in whenever I wanted.

(2) I believe it was a mistake moving from $10 min to $25 min, in effect, "chasing my money." At the time I figured, "I'll never get it back at this rate."

(3) I discovered that the downside to the benefits of playing two hands is the potential for losing twice as much twice as fast.

And I decided:

(1) I could have been more patient and waited all day if necessary to find tables where I could backcount.

(2) I will go back to $10 to $100 (unless I am only backcounting).

(3) When my software arrives I will practice UBZ or Zen until I can use it as well as I can use KO. (Although, knowing the dealer's hole card could not have helped me this trip!)

(4) I pat myself on the back for staying calm and detached through all this (except for the inevitable burning ears. haha).

PS--For the first time, it was not the high count, big dollar wagers that cost me, it was the negative counts at lower dollars that killed me. Everyone at my table lost all day long. It crushed the flat bettors. The only thing that kept me alive were the large bets during plus counts.

Just another day in the life...

 

[glovesetc]

join the group asian

I was playing at Seneca in Salamanca and playing 2 hands as alwqys and just ran up against dealers that were pulling cards from the heavens , losing more doubles and splits then winning as the dealer always made their stiff hands it seemed . Just one of those days where you grin and bear it for sure !!!!! If we won every single time there would be no casinos left - lol . :grin: left $2800.00 poorer after 7 hours of playing as well !

 

[sabre]

I'd suggest wonging out more aggressively. You don't have to give up your spot at the table if conditions are crowded. Leave your chips and/or ask for a lammer and take a walk if the shoe has gone hopelessly bad. If the count is bad but there's time for it to recover, then look for an opportunity to sit out until things improve. Maybe after losing a couple in a row, or if another player enters, or if another player leaves, look exasperated and wave off the dealer when he prompts you to place your bet.

Also, when playing two hands, bet 75% of what you'd wager on one hand on each of the two hands. (150% total) This exposes you to the same risk while improving your winrate (assuming that there is at least one other player at the table).

 

[Automatic Monkey]

A $3200 loss is not atypical given the game and the stakes you were playing. Here is my advice to improve your game.

1) Your bet in negative counts should be zero. Never mind the crowds, it is better to not play than to play without an advantage. Backcounting is not necessary and Wonging out of bad counts should work almost as well.

2) A 1-8 spread is fine for a Wong-out game, but not nearly enough if you are playing negative counts.

3) Steaming as you were will usually make things worse. You can get your money back just fine with the same bet sizes you lost it with in the first place.

4) Learn High-Low. It is superior to KO if you are playing AC shoe games, because it gives you a better idea when to get in and out of shoes.

5) Why Basic Strategy? You need to incorporate your playing indices too. Learning them can be onerous but worthwhile.

6) Forget about the Borgata! A lot of AC players obsess with that place and for no good reason. It's usually too crowded and with table limits too high for players at your betting level. Instead, walk the Boardwalk until you see a dealer cutting down to a single deck (and you always will eventually), and run a number on him. All you're interested in is deep pen in this playing environment.

 

[ihate17]

indices in high counts

Knowing the indices for negative counts is a nice thing to know, but you will always have a minimum bet on the table when using them.

Knowing positive count indices, I feel, is way more important because you will have large bets out when using them. I just had a session where playing 2 hands in a TC of +6, I got dealt a 15 and 16 and waved the hits off in total disgust and frustration. Luckily the dealer turned a 4 under his ten and busted. Now this will not happen often (it happened also one 1 of my next 2 hands) and either way you are a big underdog, but staying on these two hands was the difference between a good and bad shoe.

Now these are more "defensive" plays because you have a bad hand, in a non surrender game in my case, but knowing the more offensive aggresive doubles will at times make you a lot of money in a positive count.

Finally, when faced with a 15 vs big card in this situation, you will most likely lose no matter what you do and that is why surrender, when available, is the best play, but dealers are also of getting 15's and busting on them also. Sometimes though it seems like they do not.

ihate17

 

[aslan]

Knowing the indices for negative counts is a nice thing to know, but you will always have a minimum bet on the table when using them.

Knowing positive count indices, I feel, is way more important because you will have large bets out when using them. I just had a session where playing 2 hands in a TC of +6, I got dealt a 15 and 16 and waved the hits off in total disgust and frustration. Luckily the dealer turned a 4 under his ten and busted. Now this will not happen often (it happened also one 1 of my next 2 hands) and either way you are a big underdog, but staying on these two hands was the difference between a good and bad shoe.

Now these are more "defensive" plays because you have a bad hand, in a non surrender game in my case, but knowing the more offensive aggresive doubles will at times make you a lot of money in a positive count.

Finally, when faced with a 15 vs big card in this situation, you will most likely lose no matter what you do and that is why surrender, when available, is the best play, but dealers are also of getting 15's and busting on them also. Sometimes though it seems like they do not.

ihate17

Right! And I did use my positive indices that I learned with KO preferred, and they did save me occasionally. And I do agree with the advice about wonging out by Sabre and AutomaticMonkey. That could have made the difference. It's a learning process--but I'd prefer not to learn the hard way, if you know what I mean.

 

[Knox]

Sorry to hear about your bad sessions!

I can't resist chiming in on this one. This is a perfect example of why I avoid crowds and 6D games. If you tried to wong in only you might not even play 10 hands all night under that type of conditions. I'd rather stay home than do that. Maybe you need to show up at an odd time like 4-8 AM to avoid the crowds.

So you lost $3200. Well if you were betting black chips spreading 1-5, you need a bankroll of about $50-k. Let's say you were betting the equivalent of $266/hand, which is $400 less a 50% reduction in risk for playing the two hands, or 2/3 of the 2 x $200. Well you only lost about 12 of your high bet, that is nothing really in terms of variance.

Sabre's comments are right on. If you bankroll is low (less than 100 times your max bet), it makes sense to use the two hands to reduce risk by betting less. Also, wonging out to the bathroom or elsewhere with the spot held is helpful, and I agree with the idea of waving off a few hands in negative counts when you are losing. Perfectly normal tactic, AP or not. Problem with 6D though, its a bit hard to wave off 3 decks worth of a shoe. Sitting out for extended periods might not go over well if you have people lined up waiting to play.

Negative indices are obviously not as beneficial as the + ones, but they do have some value, although less so in a 6D game. I may have a medium sized bet out as a cover play off the top or in a moderate + or - count range (see KO book "opposition betting") as a cover play. As long as I am wonging out in really bad counts and max betting in the high positive counts I am not giving up that much in the middle. Another factor is mental capacity. Once you know all the positive indices and the play is not even challenging, why not learn the negative ones? I am mostly talking about pitch games here. For SD and DD games, I like to lump all the negative indices into a single bucket so I know if the count is negative, I can hit 12-13 v 2-6, 14 v 2-3 (think that one is SD only), etc. Keep in mind that I start all KO running counts at 0.

I have also found some value in negative indices that relate to doubling down. For example, KO SD, don't double 9 v 3-4, 10 v 8-9, or 11 v 10. This is basically a customized KO that is only a subset of the full system in the back of the book, hopefully one that will capture most of the additional EV.

As far as scrapping KO, I have no plans to do that. Right now it is working for me, it's easy as pie, and if ain't broke why fix it?

 

[aslan]

Thanks, Knox.

Thanks for your comments.

 

[Reno Dude]

Four consecutive wins and now this! Lost $3,200 playing 6D with decent pen at Borgata. All I can say is, I played perfect BS, counted well, bet when I should, and went down swinging. Began spreading two hands $10 to $75, and ended with two hands $25 to $200 each. All I can say is that although two hands may spread the risk and mitigate variance, you can lose twice as fast, too. Ho-hum! Got real used to busting on every stiff draw and pushing on many good hands. One shoe it looked like I was going to turn it around. I won almost every round and pulled back to $1,200 loser after being down around $2,700. However, I never saw another good shoe. I quit because I was tired and hungry. Not a big morale booster! The only plus was spending the $440 comps on clothing for my wife and myself.

Mulling over the experience:

(1) I did not backcount as I had planned because I could not find an uncrowded table where I could wong in whenever I wanted.

(2) I believe it was a mistake moving from $10 min to $25 min, in effect, "chasing my money." At the time I figured, "I'll never get it back at this rate."

(3) I discovered that the downside to the benefits of playing two hands is the potential for losing twice as much twice as fast.

And I decided:

(1) I could have been more patient and waited all day if necessary to find tables where I could backcount.

(2) I will go back to $10 to $100 (unless I am only backcounting).

(3) When my software arrives I will practice UBZ or Zen until I can use it as well as I can use KO. (Although, knowing the dealer's hole card could not have helped me this trip!)

(4) I pat myself on the back for staying calm and detached through all this (except for the inevitable burning ears. haha).

PS--For the first time, it was not the high count, big dollar wagers that cost me, it was the negative counts at lower dollars that killed me. Everyone at my table lost all day long. It crushed the flat bettors. The only thing that kept me alive were the large bets during plus counts.

Just another day in the life...

Im in the same boat as you are. I spent three weeks playing 4-5 days a week slowly building my bank roll only to have 3 losing sessions in a row to lose all my 3 weeks work. The cards just stopped falling in my favor.

 

[Knox]

Thanks for your comments.

Your welcome, anytime. Good job not getting too upset about this little set back. However, if you are not fake-showing some emotion while playing you look more like a counter than a ploppy. I would rather appear to be a ploppy and accentuate the highs and lows a little bit.

 

[21forme]

It happens.

You may recall in another thread, I mentioned I had only 2 losing sessions over the last year or so, playing weekly. Well, I've now had 2 losing sessions out of the last 4.

I don't know what time or what day you're playing, but I don't find the crowd problem very often (I play weekdays.) In my experience, in AC, early morning play is problematic, too, as the tables are too empty. If you want to play heads up, it's great. If you're looking to backcount, there just aren't enough players and tables available.

 

[EasyRhino]

Just in case you haven't had your balls busted enough for it yet, what's with the nearly tripling of your bet spread as you were down in the session?

The only thing that justifies changing your bet spread is a large enough change in your total bankroll, or running out of money on the trip.

 

[aslan]

Your welcome, anytime. Good job not getting too upset about this little set back. However, if you are not fake-showing some emotion while playing you look more like a counter than a ploppy. I would rather appear to be a ploppy and accentuate the highs and lows a little bit.

Funny you should mention that. I did put on an act and I did make it look like my high bets during plus counts were the act of a desparate player chasing his money. But counters beware! It is easy to fall into the mindset you are only pretending to have. When you act you still seem to conjure up the same feelings you are portraying, and that could be disastrous if you fail to keep completely detached not only from what's happening but also from what you're pretending is happening. Did that make sense?

 

[Knox]

That's deep. We need to get a licensed BJ Psychologist on here pronto!

 

[Kasi]

Just in case you haven't had your balls busted enough for it yet, what's with the nearly tripling of your bet spread as you were down in the session?

The only thing that justifies changing your bet spread is a large enough change in your total bankroll, or running out of money on the trip.

Doesn't seem like anybody mentioned it but that was my first thought.

I hope he has a huge bankroll and realizes overbetting advantage can guarantee ruin.

And get a plan or 2 for various games and stick to it!

Doubling-tripling bet ramps is not the usual camouflage, I don't think lol.

What's the point of remaining calm looking like a desparate gambler when in fact u very well may be just that.

In fact, maybe just stop playing until u get that software! And spend one-half TC+3 bet on a sim. lol.

I'm probably full of crap, and I admit it, and I'm old, and I'm conservative, and I don't even really like to gamble, and, sure, I can count, and play some index stuff to alleviate the incredible tedium of BJ, but, sure as heck, I never do a damn thing unless I already know exactly what I'm doing. (or at least think I do lol.) Which pretty much sums up why I don't mind losing a couple bucks an hour in AC 2-3 times a year. Progressions cover that so easily, it's almost silly. 'Nother subject. I just don't really care if I win 2 units an hour playing 50-100 hours a year with a 10K roll at spreading 16-1 at a $5 table playing really crappy AC games.

Do u have any clue what ROR u were playing at with the 25-200 spread? If u do, great. If not, when in doubt, underbet and accept losses.

How much money do u expect to win playing the game u r playing for how long u r playing it with the bankroll u r play it with?

How would u have bet if u COULD have back-counted?

Just be careful buddy!

 

[aslan]

Just in case you haven't had your balls busted enough for it yet, what's with the nearly tripling of your bet spread as you were down in the session?

The only thing that justifies changing your bet spread is a large enough change in your total bankroll, or running out of money on the trip.

Thanks! I needed that. I was steaming and it was poor judgment. I justified it in my mind by saying I had a replenishible BR. Detachment is easier said than done.

 

[xxrenegadexx]

I still have not been everywhere on the boardwalk but i havent seen single deck cutoffs.

 

[EasyRhino]

Detachment is easier said than done.

Maybe it's brain damage from ECON 101 class, but I view my bet spread as a "curve" on a graph. Poor counts have a min bet, good counts have a high bet, until it reachs whatever my max is.

On a given session, all you're doing is selecting points along that curve based on the count.

Increasing the general level of betting is shifting the entire curve. And that's just something you cannot do in one session, because your bankroll cannot change enough in one session to make this justified.

 

[sagefr0g]

....., but I view my bet spread as a "curve" on a graph. Poor counts have a min bet, good counts have a high bet, until it reachs whatever my max is.

On a given session, all you're doing is selecting points along that curve based on the count.

......

interesting perspective. think i'll borrow that.