Finally got my green chip Kelly bankroll

MrPill

Well-Known Member
2nd Mortgage?

AM,

One of the basic guidlines of card counting:

"DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOOSE!"

I would have to classify a 2nd mortgage on your home as money that falls into this class.

WARNING! WARNING! WARNING!

Pill
 

revereman

Well-Known Member
I agree

I hope you were kidding, Automatic. Even at relatively low interest rates, it is not wise to "bet the house." At the green chip level, it's pretty easy to lose $5k or $10k (or more) fairly quickly, if you are spreading correctly. And if you can't play at that level without spreading correctly, you shouldn't be playing at that level. Red flags all over the place.
 
I hear you

Well, I got a checkbook, where I can write checks and pay back the money at any time, so interest isn't much of an issue. Now according to my sims I have less than a 0.01% risk of ruin which would be considered AAA rated paper by any rating agency. Either I believe in the math of counting, or I don't.

Anyway, I'm playing my game and I'm well into the black, with enough cash on hand that there is a less than a 5% chance of me ever having to touch the part of my bankroll that is my house. So if that time ever comes, I will reconsider and reflect on the advice offered here. At that point I might be too disgusted to continue playing! But I do now feel a lot less stress when playing, knowing I am betting at Kelly.
 

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
Agree with your disagree

A home equity line of credit (H.E.L.O.C) is a really hot set-up. Everyone should have one up to max line on their home for many reasons. They cost very little to set up and cost nothing except only when they are being used. They are also called a 'revolving line of credit'. Meaning it is flexable and can be paid down to 0 at any time then ran back up again. You can even have a plastic credit card attached to it, resulting in tax deductable interest.
 

revereman

Well-Known Member
I Disagree with your Disagree

Not to disparage Automatic Monkey in any way, I don't think he has the track record to qualify as the quality of player you are talking about. I've heard of very good players who have had long losing streaks. That money still has to be paid back (with interest)and I would think some people would then overbet trying to get back their initial losses and then get in a deeper hole. No one answer is right for everyone, but I think a good general rule is not to play with money that you can't afford to lose.
 

revereman

Well-Known Member
Wrong

The interest on a HELOC, by definition (in most cases)is tax deductible. It has nothing to with a credit card. In fact, cerdit card interest is longer tax deductible.
And, as in my answer to ZG below, it's not wise to play BJ with money that you can't afford to lose.
 

zengrifter

Banned
I don't advocate...

...playing with money that a counter can't afford to lose. I do advocate any method that increases BR liquidity. zg
 

Feep

Active Member
HELOC

Home Equity Lines of Credit are great. I have a completely untapped one for $75K. I don't use it to play Kelly, however, I would not say it was unwise to do so under the right circumstances. For a professional or high-level player, it is free liquidity without having to have money sitting around in the bank (or house).

As I consider myself an amatuer I won't tap it. Maybe in ten years or so, but I'd rather have the up front cash, which I can build up anyways.

Feep
 

ZOD

Well-Known Member
Caution

I believe in the math, too. But speaking as someone who is IN a long losing streak, I can happily say that my bad variance won't result in me sleeping under a bridge. Please tread carefully.

Best,

ZOD
 

wc21

New Member
Margin as the playing bankroll

Don't bet with money you cannot afford to lose; don't invest in stocks if you cannot stomach a 50% loss...

I use home equity loans to buy cars (used that are then kept for 10 years) to take the tax writeoff for the interest; I use stock margin as the total playing bankroll. Over time, equities historically prvide a 15% annual ROI. With after tax margin interest rates of 2-3%, it makes sense to stay invested all the time. Sizing max bets to 1/1000 of portfolio keeps margin below 20% (200 max bets) and prevents margin calls even with major equity price decreases.

wc21
 

eyesfor21

Well-Known Member
the real solution is to sell your home

Real estate prices are at all time highes in the west and east coasts.
If one is in Canada or the midwest then stay put because of
ultra slow gains in those places.
Cash out my friend. We have never seen these high gains
in real estate before and now is the time to sell.
The foreclosures rates are going to start creeping up.
The interest rates are going to start moving up in 3 weeks
too.

Then go on your 21 trips.
As far as a loan don't do it, do it with a low interest
credit card instead. As loans have heavy closing fees and credit
cards do not.

Many of my friends have done this and it worked out
quite well.But besides being great
players their discipline is the key,which would could go into
in depth.
 

Stealth Bomber

Well-Known Member
Smart money

I keep hearing this:

Don't play with money that we can't afford to lose.

This is a very good rule to abide by. However, borrowed money is NOT necessarily money we cannot afford. How do we define money that we cannot lose? Think of it this way; Does it make better sense to have our BJ money in a special bank account earning .75% or does it make better sense to have it stored in our mortgage saving us 3.5% to 8% with a tax benie?

I've seen times where I borrowed $ at 18% to buy real estate. Now that real estate is worth many times more than was paid.

If the math works, why not borrow for anything that makes more money?

P.S. We can get a plastic card that is attached to some HELOCs that can be used to buy anything a credit card can buy and the interest is tax deductible because the HELOC is attached to our home.
 

Feep

Active Member
You can get zero cost closing...

My HELOC is below 5% and had NO closing fees. I agree about the home prices, but the cost of moving and my low fixed rate also count for a lot. Here's hoping I don't regret that decision!

Feep
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Your Confidence

is showing! ;> I picked up a new home a year ago and the same home is selling for 50K more right now. It takes 15K for another downpayment for a new house which will take a year to build. When it is complete it will be worth around $25K more than the depo I put on it. Your money, others doing all the work for you. Best deal. People like to buy a new house and move into it, not wait a year to do so. That is a good return on investment. There is a magic # for a BJ BR related to % return expected and your ability to get the money on the felt, somewhere in the 30K 50K ballpark.

Worse case senario is you will lose everything. If you have $15US you are one of the top 8% richest people in the world. Then you'll have to coupon your ass back into the top 5%. ;>

PS Not all Canadian real estate prices are laging. Location location location is key, and the area I live in is one of those locations.
 

deZerTomB

Active Member
2nd Mortgage?

so cal real estate has just gone nuts last 3 months. nothing for sale. DON'T SELL. re-fi, whatever, but hang on to your property right now. I don't know about vegas, but riverside, orange, LA counties 25%-35% gain per year. higher in spots. Make $50k/yr just paying the mortgage.

So it just depends I guess on your retirement situation.

Unless you burn through it pretty quick and you live in the sticks, there will be more where that came from. IMHO.
 

revereman

Well-Known Member
And what would happen

if the real estate you purchased with borrowed money at 18% went down in value? What happened to people who borrowed money to buy stocks during the stock market boom and then got margin calls when the market tanked? Every person's circumstances are different but, generally speaking, it's not a good idea to fund BJ activity with borrowed money. There are no guarantees in life, and especially in BJ, no matter how good of a player you are.
 

eyesfor21

Well-Known Member
rob

Rob,
my friend bought a preconstruction in Vegas at the lake,and now
its almost build, the increase 25o,ooo, unreal, and if you keep it
two or more years the gain will be tax free.This gain would never
happen to this extent in Canada and the taxes would be 50%.wowza.
Canada has been appreciated at 4 %,vs CA. FL, NY,NV around 40%.
 

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Nice

Anything that happens in Canada I have to multiply by 10 to figure out what is happening in America. ;> I think that is because we were forced to go metric for the good of humanity back in the 70's or something. We have lots more lake front properties, so they are not as scarse as hen's teeth are in the desert, so once again, location is key. We both have areas where the prop values are going down, etc. I'm sure there are spots in NY that have droped -40% too. 250K could be only a 5% increase in value. Better what out who moves in next door y'all. That can do more damage than a hurry cane.
 
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