First counting experience at the casino!!!

[OregonRick]

I had my first counting experince at the casino today. God, was I nervous. I made a couple of mistakes and messed up on the count earlier on. Later near the end I started playing well but just wasn't hitting the cards that I was expecting.
The casino I was playing at has great penetration. I didn't see a single dealer cut out more than a deck, and some cut out only a half deck. I was amazed by that.
Anyways here were the rules...

-6 deck shoe
-split up to 4 times
-DAS
-dealer hits soft 17
-BJ pays 3-2
-insurance pays 2-1

Lucky Ladies
-any 20 pays 4-1
-suited 20 pays 9-1
-matched 20 pays 19-1
-2 queen of hearts pays 125-1
-2 queen of hearts w/ dealer BJ pays 1000-1
-max aggregate payout is 25,000

So, anyways at the end of my day there I hit a shoe with a great count. With about 1 1/4 decks, my running count was 24. After that hand, my true count was at 20. There were 4 other players at hte table unfortunately, so i was playing 2 hands at a time with such good counts. The thing that sucked was that with such a great count I wasn't hitting the lucky ladies. I ended up being down about $300. Then, finally I hit a matched 20 to pay me 19-1 on my $15 side bet. That was the only time I hit the side bet. I couldn't believe it. All the 10 card were coming in clumps of about 5, so alot of my hands would be 17, 18, 19 with a few BJ here and there. I ended up breaking even, but I felt like I should have made a killing. Anyways, I think there is a lot of money to be had at this local casino. I am still amazed at the penetration. I was there for about 3 hours, and my brain is fried.
I hope everyone can appreciate the story!!!

 

[EasyRhino]

It's kind of expected that you'll lose the count a few times your first (few) times out. Brain-frying is definitely expected.

It sounds like after the initial hiccups, you were still keeping the count by the end of the shoe, even when it skyrocketed. That's pretty good!

Also, you probably want to temper your expectations a bit. I have no idea how much you were betting, but the general expectation on earnings is only a unit or two per hour. So for three hours... it's maybe not that much. Breaking even is slightly under expectation, but still better than the de-pantsings you'll experience later.

Nice on the the 19-1 LL bet. Last week, I was getting a little beat up at the BJ tables, then they filled up, so I sat down at a dead-empty three card poker table (hadn't played it before). On the first hand I draw a three of a kind, which paid 30-1. Sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut.

 

[xciceroguy]

Keep plugging away....

 

[renegadexxxx]

first off your first mistake was playing those bullshit bonuses. keep the count and stop being a fucking homo. that is what has to be done.

 

[mdlbj]

OregonRick.. Drive 5 hours up to the Tulalip in washington and hit the shoe games.. You will feel much better..

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Congratulations on your first counting experience! Very astute of you to notice the penetration and to be aware of how valuable that is.

I'd suggest holding off on the Lucky Ladies for a while. Although it is a beatable sidebet, all sidebets (including insurance) have high variance relative to blackjack and variance is not something you want when you are starting out.

Also, if your true count was +20 I have to assume you were using a level 2 or 3 count? Very daring for a first time counter! Which count were you using?

 

[SystemsTrader]

first off your first mistake was playing those bullshit bonuses. keep the count and stop being a fucking homo. that is what has to be done.

Hey renegade this really is uncalled for. Lucky Ladies is a really easy side bet because it does not require its own count, you just throw it out like an insurance bet when the count calls for it. As long as your account can handle the large variance with LL I say keep playing it Oregon.

 

[OregonRick]

I use the high low count. I am playing with a replenishable $5000 bank roll. My max bet would have been $50, but there were 4 other people at the table. In order to maximize my potential in that situation, I decided to play 2 hands and lower my bets to $30 +/- $5 on each hand. I was also betting $15 +/- $5 on each of my side bets. I only played the 2 hands when the count was really good and only beacause of the others at the table. I changed my bets around slightly just because it seemed so obvious to me that I was counting cards. Maybe it was just the first time jitters. I can't wait to go again though. I will definately keep studying my flash cards. My game can definately use more improvement.

 

[OregonRick]

first off your first mistake was playing those bullshit bonuses. keep the count and stop being a fucking homo. that is what has to be done.

I read on this site that the Lucky Ladies side bet doesn't become profitable until the hi/lo true count reaches +4. I hold off until +6 and raise the bets with the count. With a true count of +20, I have to think that it would be crazy not to bet on the lucky ladies. I have to have a huge edge at that point. I would even think that at +20 that my edge would be far greater than on my regular bet.

 

[EasyRhino]

Forgot to mention that spreading to two hands in a positive count to eat more cards from the civilians is exactly the right thing to do. Combined with dropping to one hand in negative counts, it's almost as good as wonging! (well, not really, but it's still a good edge)

 

[bluewhale]

I read on this site that the Lucky Ladies side bet doesn't become profitable until the hi/lo true count reaches +4. I hold off until +6 and raise the bets with the count. With a true count of +20, I have to think that it would be crazy not to bet on the lucky ladies. I have to have a huge edge at that point. I would even think that at +20 that my edge would be far greater than on my regular bet.

i believe the index for LL is +7 no? either way, i think renegade is right (although he could have phrased things better). LL is used primarily as a means of cover. given ideal "no-heat" "no-pit" conditions, no counter would play LL, they would just spread a lot more with their regular BJ bets. considering the amount of variation on the LL bet, i don't think that even your BR can handle it. So personally i wouldn't bet more than a couple bucks on it, instead i'd try to stick that money onto my 2 BJ hands.

 

[OregonRick]

i believe the index for LL is +7 no? either way, i think renegade is right (although he could have phrased things better). LL is used primarily as a means of cover. given ideal "no-heat" "no-pit" conditions, no counter would play LL, they would just spread a lot more with their regular BJ bets. considering the amount of variation on the LL bet, i don't think that even your BR can handle it. So personally i wouldn't bet more than a couple bucks on it, instead i'd try to stick that money onto my 2 BJ hands.

I think it's the zen count that has to be +7 or higher, and the hi/lo is +4. I could be wrong though. You may be right about not betting on the lucky ladies, but with the count that high, it sure felt like I was playing correct.

Anyone else have anything to say about this?

 

[ScottH]

I read on this site that the Lucky Ladies side bet doesn't become profitable until the hi/lo true count reaches +4. I hold off until +6 and raise the bets with the count. With a true count of +20, I have to think that it would be crazy not to bet on the lucky ladies. I have to have a huge edge at that point. I would even think that at +20 that my edge would be far greater than on my regular bet.

A hi-Lo TC of +20 is unheard of I think. I don't use that count, but I'm pretty sure you will almost NEVER get a count that high. Like Automatic Monkey thought, he was probably using a level 2 or 3 count, or miscounted. If he is using a level 2 count the lucky ladies bet would be at a higher number than it is for Hi-LO.

 

[OregonRick]

A hi-Lo TC of +20 is unheard of I think. I don't use that count, but I'm pretty sure you will almost NEVER get a count that high. Like Automatic Monkey thought, he was probably using a level 2 or 3 count, or miscounted. If he is using a level 2 count the lucky ladies bet would be at a higher number than it is for Hi-LO.

I feel pretty good about the way I counted that shoe. I was amazed at all the low cards. Nobody else at the table was raising there bets either, so I know I was the only counter there. I couldn't believe how high it was either. I won't get my hopes up on seeing a count like that anytime soon. I do use the hi/lo count though.

2-6=+1
10-A=-1

 

[positiveEV]

I feel pretty good about the way I counted that shoe. I was amazed at all the low cards. Nobody else at the table was raising there bets either, so I know I was the only counter there. I couldn't believe how high it was either. I won't get my hopes up on seeing a count like that anytime soon. I do use the hi/lo count though.

2-6=+1
10-A=-1

Was it the true count or the running count?

 

[ScottH]

I feel pretty good about the way I counted that shoe. I was amazed at all the low cards. Nobody else at the table was raising there bets either, so I know I was the only counter there. I couldn't believe how high it was either. I won't get my hopes up on seeing a count like that anytime soon. I do use the hi/lo count though.

2-6=+1
10-A=-1

Well, if that was the TC, you will likely not see it again. Maybe you were referring to the RC though, and that would be more reasonable.

 

[OregonRick]

Well, if that was the TC, you will likely not see it again. Maybe you were referring to the RC though, and that would be more reasonable.

It was the true count. With 1 1/4 decks left my running count was at 24. With 4 other people playing, we got rid of about a quarter deck on hand. The running count dropped to 20, but since I was now at one deck left(the cut card was at 3/4 deck), the true count also equaled 20.

 

[nc-tom]

It was the true count. With 1 1/4 decks left my running count was at 24. With 4 other people playing, we got rid of about a quarter deck on hand. The running count dropped to 20, but since I was now at one deck left(the cut card was at 3/4 deck), the true count also equaled 20.

Whoa OR if your estimate of the pen is correct that is increadable!! I would try to play this game as much as I could if they keep giving that good of pen. Would not tell anyone where this game is either so I could keep it to myself as long as possible.

 

[OregonRick]

Whoa OR if your estimate of the pen is correct that is increadable!! I would try to play this game as much as I could if they keep giving that good of pen. Would not tell anyone where this game is either so I could keep it to myself as long as possible.

Yeah! That's why I didn't mention the place. I have heard someone else on here talk about the place though, and they were right about the penetration. I couldn't believe what I was seeing.

 

[Sonny]

That’s very impressive! On your very first trip to a casino you were already keeping the count pretty well, calculating your TC, varying your bets, knowing when to play two hands, betting the correct amount on both hands, and beating the LL side bet. Very impressive!

As far as playing the LL side bet, you were right in this case. At a +20 TC your advantage on the LL side bet was over 70%! That’s a tough bet to turn down.

Keep up the good work!

-Sonny-