First timer-when to stop

Diver

Well-Known Member
I have played the simulator on this site long enough to learn fairly good, but not perfect BS, and realize Martingale will easily blow a $1,000 bankroll at a $25 min table (ok any amount at any table). I also have no faculty for math or statistics and would have to committ a tremendous amount of time to be a decent advantage player, much less one who isn't obvious. I was in Vegas for a trade show and decided to see what would happen with $500 to risk, prepared to quit entirely when that was gone. I wound up with four winning sessions of 30-45 minutes each, stopping when I doubled my stake at each session for a total win of $2100. I was play 6-deck shoes at the Paris-dealer hits S17. My betting pattern was that I increased the minumum flat bet to $50 when I was ahead and doubled that amount after a loss once in a while, but went back to flat betting $50 if I lost the $100. It was the opportunity to double when I was betting $50 that allowed me to quit ahead in each session. Would a small-time player like me who maintains the discipline to quit when the starting stake for a session is either lost or doubled eventually be disinvited when it's becomes evident you're not staying with it long enough for house odds to rule out? Would playing with a larger stake but following the same betting strategy draw more attention? Or it this just a matter that I had four consecutive lucky sessions and should either learn card counting or stop fooling around?
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
Your last sentence sums it up perfectly.In playing BJ,card counting is the only way to make money long term. You can Comp Count,which is profitable,but its a different type of horse.
Don't allow short term luck to fog your vision.Its what the casinos bank on.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
If you follow any sort of progression system, the casino will probably welcome you with open arms, regardless of the stakes or length of time that you play.

If you're counting, the conventional advice is to keep your sessions short (45 min is a common figure).
 

NDN21

Well-Known Member
Diver said:
Would a small-time player like me who maintains the discipline to quit when the starting stake for a session is either lost or doubled eventually be disinvited when it's becomes evident you're not staying with it long enough for house odds to rule out?
This is dumb luck. You started out winning and left before "house odds to rule out" caught up to you.

You could have just as easily started out losing and never gotten back to even, not having enough $ to recoup some of your losses.

Non-counters win all the time against CSM's, bad rules, and overbetting. This is what happened to you. But it's the counter who wins over a long period of time. Play perfect BS and at least your money will last longer.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
NDN21 said:
Non-counters win all the time against ...overbetting.
Interesting question - can BS players overbet assuming they leave enuf money to cover doubles. splits, etc?
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Interesting question - can BS players overbet assuming they leave enuf money to cover doubles. splits, etc?
If a BS strategy player bets anything >0 they are overbetting.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
ScottH said:
If a BS strategy player bets anything >0 they are overbetting.
I like it! :)

So I guess, if they choose to play, there is no such thing as "overbetting"?
Since all bets are equally worthless?

So, only an AP can "overbet" compared to his bankroll because he's playing with an overall +EV?

Just having fun here lol.
 

NDN21

Well-Known Member
First-timer

I meant when they come into a casino and plop down $300 and start betting $75 a hand or more, leaving only enough cash for very few hands.

I guess you guys are right. Any bet by a non-counter is over betting.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
i'd have to go along with the idea that the basic strategy only player would want to have enough bank to sustain splits and double downs. especially doubledowns. if the basic strategy player has certain goals then it is reasonable that he should establish a betting limit. so yeah i go with that it is possible for a basic strategy only player to overbet. a basic strategy player could fall prey to steaming just as a card counter could. also basic strategy only players do not lose every trip session they play. long term they are expected to lose but even that is not an absolute but only a high probability. perhaps they may play so few sessions in a lifetime that they could even come out ahead.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
NDN21 said:
I meant when they come into a casino and plop down $300 and start betting $75 a hand or more, leaving only enough cash for very few hands.

I guess you guys are right. Any bet by a non-counter is over betting.
I knew what u meant ND21 - we see it all the time - kids buying in with $30 at a $10 table and swearing at their bad luck 5 minutes later. Like u say - I'd call it overbetting but, on the other hand, if they are willing to take the risk good for them. Except we know they don't have a clue.

Of course one never knows how much money is in one's pocket. Alot of counters might buy in with a few units only to "steam" when they lose their buy-in and have to reach in for more money.

Anyway glad we established only counters can overbet :)
 
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