Game conditions in order of importance

[hopson77]

I know it's in the forums here somewhere, but my searching isn't turning it up.

I know the most important thing in a shoe game is penetration, and then I think it's followed by LS, something, something, and lastly 6D over 8D. Can someone post the correct order of favorable conditions?

 

[Mikeaber]

I'm sure you'll get a lot more detailed summary, but what I look for in order is:

1. Penetration
2. Stand on Soft 17 (one of the highest rules in favor of player at .2%
3. Lowest number of decks

Note that Stand on Soft 17 gives more player advantage in an 8-deck shoe than Hitting Soft 17 on a 6-deck. However, the advantage of a lower number of decks when you go down to 2-deck or Single deck gives more advantage than the Stand on Soft 17. In other words, all other rules being equal, playing a double-deck game where the dealer hits soft 17 is better than playing a 6-deck game where the dealer Stands on Soft 17. Just barely, but there is a slight gain.

As for LS...I've only seen it at one low limit table. You'll probably find it more common on the higher limit tables. At any rate, LS only gives .07%. Now if you can find Early Surrender...that can yield more than the Stand on Soft 17.

 

[hopson77]

Silly me, completely forgot the S17 rule. LS is unheard of in Atlantic City, so there's no benefit in looking. I might be hitting Vegas and/or Reno sometime in January and will definitely do some research on the games out there before then.

 

[nc-tom]

Silly me, completely forgot the S17 rule. LS is unheard of in Atlantic City, so there's no benefit in looking. I might be hitting Vegas and/or Reno sometime in January and will definitely do some research on the games out there before then.

If hitting Reno forget about s17 or surrender was just up there and did not see it anywhere. best games probably found at Sienna, boomtown and Silver club.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm sure you'll get a lot more detailed summary, but what I look for in order is:

1. Penetration
2. Stand on Soft 17 (one of the highest rules in favor of player at .2%
3. Lowest number of decks

As for LS...I've only seen it at one low limit table. You'll probably find it more common on the higher limit tables. At any rate, LS only gives .07%. Now if you can find Early Surrender...that can yield more than the Stand on Soft 17.

Well there's a little more to it than that- LS gives only 0.07% to a Basic Strategy player but to a counter the rule is the most powerful, even more important than S17. LS has equal value to about a half deck extra penetration.

The reason is that at high counts when you have a lot of money out, the value of being able to surrender increases, especially if you use all the playing indices for surrender. It also decreases your variance so you can play a larger max bet with the same risk of ruin.

 

[Mikeaber]

Well there's a little more to it than that- LS gives only 0.07% to a Basic Strategy player but to a counter the rule is the most powerful, even more important than S17. LS has equal value to about a half deck extra penetration.

The reason is that at high counts when you have a lot of money out, the value of being able to surrender increases, especially if you use all the playing indices for surrender. It also decreases your variance so you can play a larger max bet with the same risk of ruin.

Makes sense. Like I said, I've only seen that option on tables I play, at one casino and that was a couple of years ago and then, I was just playing Basic Strategy.

 

[hopson77]

So order of importance would be penetration, LS, S17, fewest decks. See, in AC (the only place I have played so far), pretty much everything is 8 decks on the main floor, with the notable exceptions of the Borgata and the Tropicana. Knowing that number of decks isn't super important opens my possibilities up a lot more.

Is there anyway to suggest to the dealer that he might cut a few less cards out, perhaps in the name of "getting to play a bit more before the shuffle," without looking like I'm counting? Some tables at the Borgata don't have the auto-shufflers, so the hand shuffle takes quite a while. I almost gave that line to one of the cooler dealers last time in AC, but I didn't want to draw any heat. Suggestions?

 

[Mikeaber]

Woha there Hopson....number of decks is WAY important. There isn't much difference between 8-deck and 6-deck (.03%), but there is a large difference between 6-deck and 2-deck (.24%) and between 2-deck and single deck (.35%). Look at some of the House Edge calculators and you'll see what I'm talking about.

 

[hopson77]

Sorry, I didn't state that too well. I meant fewest decks in terms of 6D/8D. Of course a single deck game with the same rules as a good 6D game would be advantageous to even a BS player. Like I said before, 6D is largely dead in AC, and there are no SD/DD games, except for the 6:5 crapjack games. It's good to know that if I can find an 8D game that's got good penetration, it's better than a 6D game that has only average penetration or worse.

Any suggestions on how to get the dealers to cut a little less off of the shoe without looking like a card counting fool?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

So order of importance would be penetration, LS, S17, fewest decks. See, in AC (the only place I have played so far), pretty much everything is 8 decks on the main floor, with the notable exceptions of the Borgata and the Tropicana. Knowing that number of decks isn't super important opens my possibilities up a lot more....

One more common rule is RSA (resplit aces), that ranks in between S17 and number of decks. You won't find that anywhere east of Detroit. 6 vs. 8 decks isn't a big deal, assuming you are using a balanced count and Wonging out of bad counts.

 

[Mikeaber]

Resplitting Aces is another rule that takes on a lot more significance to the counter than the Basic Strategy player isn't it? I believe it's rated at .08% or something like that. But, with the count really high, you are more likely to draw Aces and to get stuck with a 12 after splitting is a killer!

 

[josh3623]

I actually prefer 6 decks to one or two, four is my favorite

Now If I could find a two deck game that had decent penetration that might be different, but it seems to be a pipe dream around here(wa). The only 4 deck game I've played was in europe. In my expierience the true count half way through the shoe is more indicative of a player favorable breaking pattern. for example, a one deck game it is rare to get more than two rounds of action before a shuffle. a two deck game might have 4 or 5 if the table has a reasonable amount of players. so half way through the cards, when the count is really indicative a 1 deck game has 1 hand left and a 2 deck has 2 hands, assuming at least 4 or five players are on the table. By the time a 6 deck game is half way through the shoe, there are still 7 or eight hands at least left in the shoe, ie, assuming the running count is +12 halfway through this would give a true count of around +4, now you know you have a big statistical advantage(though you still might lose, the odds are in your favor, bigtime) for the next 7 hands, that gives you time to make a little money. Also countwise I have found, generally that more cards tend
to be more predictable relative to the count. For example if the count is +4 in a single deck, this is not nearly as much of an indicator of a positive situation as a true count of +4 in a 6 deck shoe. This is because of the fact that a six deck shoe is six times of a larger sample then a one deck shoe, and larger samples tend to act more like the statistical norm than small samples.
I wish we had stand on soft 17 around here, but we don't there is only one casino that offers surrender, and I think it is a big advantage. I know I do better at that casino than any other. longer trends are more common in higher deck shoes, this both helps and hurts you. But to the extant that you can predict these trends it helps you.
anyway stand on soft 17 may affect you once in every 50 or so hands whereas surrender, helps you quite often. Although stand on soft seventeen while a rarer occurrance, when it does happen, is more desirous.
But 50% penetration is standard I have found for double deck, and single is non existent at least up here in wa, vegas is a different world. also in states that are unregulated be very careful about a game with a handheld deck....
especially in CA.. Be sure to keep your eye out for the infamous mechanics grip :joker:
happy betting
and good luck
Josh

 

[josh3623]

I actually prefer 6 decks to one or two, four is my favorite

Now If I could find a two deck game that had decent penetration that might be different, but it seems to be a pipe dream around here(wa). The only 4 deck game I've played was in europe. In my expierience the true count half way through the shoe is more indicative of a player favorable breaking pattern. for example, a one deck game it is rare to get more than two rounds of action before a shuffle. a two deck game might have 4 or 5 if the table has a reasonable amount of players. so half way through the cards, when the count is really indicative a 1 deck game has 1 hand left and a 2 deck has 2 hands, assuming at least 4 or five players are on the table. By the time a 6 deck game is half way through the shoe, there are still 7 or eight hands at least left in the shoe, ie, assuming the running count is +12 halfway through this would give a true count of around +4, now you know you have a big statistical advantage(though you still might lose, the odds are in your favor, bigtime) for the next 7 hands, that gives you time to make a little money. Also countwise I have found, generally that more cards tend
to be more predictable relative to the count. For example if the count is +4 in a single deck, this is not nearly as much of an indicator of a positive situation as a true count of +4 in a 6 deck shoe. This is because of the fact that a six deck shoe is six times of a larger sample then a one deck shoe, and larger samples tend to act more like the statistical norm than small samples.
I wish we had stand on soft 17 around here, but we don't there is only one casino that offers surrender, and I think it is a big advantage. I know I do better at that casino than any other. longer trends are more common in higher deck shoes, this both helps and hurts you. But to the extant that you can predict these trends it helps you.
anyway stand on soft 17 may affect you once in every 50 or so hands whereas surrender, helps you quite often. Although stand on soft seventeen while a rarer occurrance, when it does happen, is more desirous.
But 50% penetration is standard I have found for double deck, and single is non existent at least up here in wa, vegas is a different world. also in states that are unregulated be very careful about a game with a handheld deck....
especially in CA.. Be sure to keep your eye out for the infamous mechanics grip :joker:
happy betting
and good luck
Josh

 

[josh3623]

I actually prefer 6 decks to one or two, four is my favorite

Now If I could find a two deck game that had decent penetration that might be different, but it seems to be a pipe dream around here(wa). The only 4 deck game I've played was in europe. In my expierience the true count half way through the shoe is more indicative of a player favorable breaking pattern. for example, a one deck game it is rare to get more than two rounds of action before a shuffle. a two deck game might have 4 or 5 if the table has a reasonable amount of players. so half way through the cards, when the count is really indicative a 1 deck game has 1 hand left and a 2 deck has 2 hands, assuming at least 4 or five players are on the table. By the time a 6 deck game is half way through the shoe, there are still 7 or eight hands at least left in the shoe, ie, assuming the running count is +12 halfway through this would give a true count of around +4, now you know you have a big statistical advantage(though you still might lose, the odds are in your favor, bigtime) for the next 7 hands, that gives you time to make a little money. Also countwise I have found, generally that more cards tend
to be more predictable relative to the count. For example if the count is +4 in a single deck, this is not nearly as much of an indicator of a positive situation as a true count of +4 in a 6 deck shoe. This is because of the fact that a six deck shoe is six times of a larger sample then a one deck shoe, and larger samples tend to act more like the statistical norm than small samples.
I wish we had stand on soft 17 around here, but we don't there is only one casino that offers surrender, and I think it is a big advantage. I know I do better at that casino than any other. longer trends are more common in higher deck shoes, this both helps and hurts you. But to the extant that you can predict these trends it helps you.
anyway stand on soft 17 may affect you once in every 50 or so hands whereas surrender, helps you quite often. Although stand on soft seventeen while a rarer occurrance, when it does happen, is more desirous.
But 50% penetration is standard I have found for double deck, and single is non existent at least up here in wa, vegas is a different world. also in states that are unregulated be very careful about a game with a handheld deck....
especially in CA.. Be sure to keep your eye out for the infamous mechanics grip :joker:
happy betting
and good luck
Josh

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Resplitting Aces is another rule that takes on a lot more significance to the counter than the Basic Strategy player isn't it? I believe it's rated at .08% or something like that. But, with the count really high, you are more likely to draw Aces and to get stuck with a 12 after splitting is a killer!

Sure, and being there are a lot of 10's left you have two more shots at drawing a 10 too. But the slope of the benefit of RSA vs. count is small compared to that of LS.

 

[ScottH]

Woha there Hopson....number of decks is WAY important. There isn't much difference between 8-deck and 6-deck (.03%), but there is a large difference between 6-deck and 2-deck (.24%) and between 2-deck and single deck (.35%). Look at some of the House Edge calculators and you'll see what I'm talking about.

There is more to it than just house advantage as well. Lower number of decks is of great importance because of the increased frequency of extreme counts. In order of importance it would probably be penetration, then number of decks. Although it's not important to rank them, they are all important!

 

[Preston]

I think those are the big three but there are some other things to consider:

Blackjack pays 3:2 (6:5 sucks)
Double After Split
Split up to 4 times
Double on any two cards


there are often times I see the lower deck games where the playability rules are so bad they negate the low # of decks.

Would it be better to play a 6 deck game where you can do all the above vs a single deck game that does not allow any of the above listed?

And how much does the S17 change things?