Going to try 2 deck.

[Rspeirsmlb]

So I've decided to take a little break from 6 deck and try some 2 deck pitch.....I'm going to start out using K-O Rookie to start and see how I do. My max bet is $300.....What do you guys think I can get away with in being my single unit bet? I know I can only get away with 1-5 spread in 2 deck (So I hear), so my unit would technically be $60......buuutttttt I figure I can get away with just having a $50 unit. (1-6 spread)(Saves the trouble from having to use red chips and is lower). Is this ok to be doing? Any good advice for me transforming to DD???

Now I have question about my 6 deck play (DOA, DAS, H17, No Resplitting of aces, No Surrender). Again my max bet is $300. I've been spreading 25-300. Is this too much in regards to heat? I've noticed absolutely no heat from it but I am a more conservative guy and like to keep risk to a minimum. Also with K-O Rookie would it be alright to spread to 2 hands at my Key Count? I know this reduces variance and I'm thrilled by that. Keeping in mind my max bet is $300 if I spread to 2 hands what should I play on each? I'd like to hear some feedback from you guys and see how others that are using K-O spread in these types of situations in relation to their bankroll. I'm fairly new to counting in a live casino (only have done it about 10 times) so take it easy on me! Thanks Guys!

 

[moo321]

The heat totally depends on the casino you're playing at, and your act. A lot of players overestimate the effect of spreads on heat; you can get caught spreading 1-3, and get away with 1-30. It all depends on your act and the pit (and surveillance).

If you're a woman, that helps. If you're asian or black, that helps. If you're above the age of 30, that helps.

 

[zengrifter]

Again my max bet is $300. I've been spreading 25-300. Is this too much in regards to heat?!

Its not enough UNLESS you are exit-wonging bad counts.
For play-all you will need 10-300.

And NO it should not create undoe heat IF you are smooth.

50-2x200 would be good for 2D. zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Thanks Zen and Moo. So spreading 1-12 isn't enough for 6 deck? During a 6 deck game at my positive counts....what should my bets be on 2 hands? Thanks for the help.

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks Zen and Moo. So spreading 1-12 isn't enough for 6 deck?

Not for play-all.

During a 6 deck game at my positive counts....what should my bets be on 2 hands? Thanks for the help.

If your max single is 300 you can bet 2x200 with the same RoR (2x210 to be more precise). zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Thanks Zen! Yeah I'm going to do a TON of backcounting and exit wonging for 6 deck from now on.....

 

[AnIrishmannot2brite]

The heat totally depends on the casino you're playing at, and your act. A lot of players overestimate the effect of spreads on heat; you can get caught spreading 1-3, and get away with 1-30. It all depends on your act and the pit (and surveillance).

If you're a woman, that helps. If you're asian or black, that helps. If you're above the age of 30, that helps.

Interesting.

I am over thirty. Considerably more in fact. This double deck stuff could be a really good retirement income. I've got no 401K. Just an undeveloped piece of land in a warm climate out in the boonies. If these cats give me a free pass for being an older chap it'll help when I'm too old to keep up with my competitors in business.

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

I'm only 20 years old and am using this as my retirement plan. Well, hopefully building it up to 100k in a few years and away with the stock market we go! Those are my goals anways...turn 30k to 100k by counting in 5 years.

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Plus....pitbosses see me as just some spoiled rich kid and shrug their shoulders....I guess it's kind of an advantage because I don't get that much heat......so far anyways....I haven't hit up Vegas yet but we'll see.

 

[21forme]

If you're above the age of 30, that helps.

I'm significantly over 30 as well, and I don't buy it.

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks Zen! Yeah I'm going to do a TON of backcounting and exit wonging for 6 deck from now on.....

Backcount and wong-in you only need 50-300. zg

 

[Mimosine]

So I've decided to take a little break from 6 deck and try some 2 deck pitch.....I'm going to start out using K-O Rookie to start and see how I do. My max bet is $300.....

in KO rookie, all you do is go from min bet to max bet (at the key count) with no ramp, no insurance and no index play. is that what you're doing???? i hope not. you should be using KO preferred, with rough kelly betting and all index plays.

as far as your 1-12 spread for 6D playall, i disagree with ZG. i think a 1-12 spread on a good game with good pen is sufficient. though, the power of wonging can not be overstated. my 2 ¢

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

?

Did I say Rookie?! Whoops! YES I AM using the full K-O preferred using all the index plays and taking insurance at +3..Sorry about that. :laugh: I want to have a very low ROR (1% or less). I have a question about ROR also.....What exactly does the 1% chance that you'll lose it all mean?!!! Like 1 out of every 100 counters who kelly bet will lose their entire bankroll? 1 out of every 100 times you step foot in a casino you'll go broke? Or one out of every 100 times you readjust you're unit bet according to your bankroll you'll go broke? I've never fully understood this concept.......I know having 100 max bets is a good rule of thumb giving you a 1% ROR....but as counters we all know that 1% in any constant event is bound to happen sooner or later?! Right?!!! I'm confused when it comes to this.....Someone help me with this please!

 

[moo321]

Did I say Rookie?! Whoops! YES I AM using the full K-O preferred using all the index plays and taking insurance at +3..Sorry about that. :laugh: I want to have a very low ROR (1% or less). I have a question about ROR also.....What exactly does the 1% chance that you'll lose it all mean?!!! Like 1 out of every 100 counters who kelly bet will lose their entire bankroll? 1 out of every 100 times you step foot in a casino you'll go broke? Or one out of every 100 times you readjust you're unit bet according to your bankroll you'll go broke? I've never fully understood this concept.......I know having 100 max bets is a good rule of thumb giving you a 1% ROR....but as counters we all know that 1% in any constant event is bound to happen sooner or later?! Right?!!! I'm confused when it comes to this.....Someone help me with this please!

Good question. Kelly betting has NO ROR value, because it involves constantly resizing your bets. Your risk of large losses is very high, though, and most players don't bet full Kelly. The 2 main ways to calculate ROR are risk of ruin vs. chance of doubling the bank, and lifetime risk of ruin. Risk of ruin vs. chance of doubling is more commonly used.

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

So if one constantly doubles his bankroll for years.....and adds all his winnings to his bankroll his bankroll will eventually be exhausted....correct?

 

[zengrifter]

..as far as your 1-12 spread for 6D playall, i disagree with ZG. i think a 1-12 spread on a good game with good pen is sufficient.

Show us a SCORE comparison for -
1-30 all
1-12 all
1-12 out
1-6 in

I'm easy to convince. zg

 

[EasyRhino]

um... ouch?

moo makes a good point. "continuous" Kelly betting will never have a risk of true ruin, just a risk of bankroll degradation to a point where it doesn't matter.

Most ROR calculations are done assuming that the betting unit never changes from its initial value. Bets are not readjusted. That's how you get an actual risk of ruin. Maybe calling it "fixed" Kelly might make more sense. or not.

Under a fixed scheme, the risk of ruin for an initial full-Kelly betting is 13.53%. and half kelly it's 1.83%. (cite (Archive copy)) At 2x Kelly, it's perversely 100%.

If, theoretically, always increased your bankroll to some Kelly fraction on bankroll upswings, but never decreased it on downswings, then I think you will inevitably bust out over the very long term.

 

[zengrifter]

So if one constantly doubles his bankroll for years.....and adds all his winnings to his bankroll his bankroll will eventually be exhausted....correct?

Not exactly... but first, if your max bet is 300, what is your BR? zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

My bankroll is $30,000....My goal is to double it in 6 months....if all goes well of course:cool2:

 

[Kasi]

I think 100 max lifetime bets might be pretty low in general. Might just be me.

But if you want a ROR that low, I think you should probably get a grip on those concepts.

What did you think your risk was spreading 25-300 in the 6D H17 game with a $30K lifetime roll? And what was the penetration did you say? Were you really playing all hands?

As usual, I get nervous when people, especially young ones, even ask questions like "How should I play?".

Not that you're not getting good advice but do you ask the guy next to you at the table what to do?

And do I dare ask what are the rules of the DD game you are thinking of playing and at what penetration?

Do you even know the BS for the DD game in question?

Anyway, I get the feeling you are nowhere near ready.

At best size everything to a $7.5K roll and see what happens for a while lol.
See if it doubles in 6 months.

And, until I read that, I thought your goal was to turn $30K into $100K in 5 years, not 14 months.

How much you planning on playing anyway lol?