Going to try 2 deck.

[moo321]

I think 100 max lifetime bets might be pretty low in general. Might just be me.

But if you want a ROR that low, I think you should probably get a grip on those concepts.

What did you think your risk was spreading 25-300 in the 6D H17 game with a $30K lifetime roll? And what was the penetration did you say? Were you really playing all hands?

As usual, I get nervous when people, especially young ones, even ask questions like "How should I play?".

Not that you're not getting good advice but do you ask the guy next to you at the table what to do?

And do I dare ask what are the rules of the DD game you are thinking of playing and at what penetration?

Do you even know the BS for the DD game in question?

Anyway, I get the feeling you are nowhere near ready.

At best size everything to a $7.5K roll and see what happens for a while lol.
See if it doubles in 6 months.

And, until I read that, I thought your goal was to turn $30K into $100K in 5 years, not 14 months.

How much you planning on playing anyway lol?

Not to jump down your throat, or anything...

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Like I said I have not played the DD pitch games yet, but I plan to by the first of the year when I've practiced and think I'm ready. Also, yes I was playing all in my 6 deck game but when count tanked I would take a "bathroom break". My basic strategy and index plays are pretty good, I've only caught myself making one mistake on an index plays so far. Yes my bankroll is $30k and I plan to double it in 6 months...(my goal) and over the longrun turn it into 100k........Lol and NO I never ask the guy next to me what to do, normally I'm the one telling them what to do......

 

[zengrifter]

Like I said I have not played the DD pitch games yet, but I plan to by the first of the year when I've practiced and think I'm ready. Also, yes I was playing all in my 6 deck game but when count tanked I would take a "bathroom break". My basic strategy and index plays are pretty good, I've only caught myself making one mistake on an index plays so far. Yes my bankroll is $30k and I plan to double it in 6 months...(my goal) and over the longrun turn it into 100k........Lol and NO I never ask the guy next to me what to do, normally I'm the one telling them what to do......

If you want a lower RoR make your topBet 1% of BR divided between two hands - 2x150. zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Or should I continually bet as though my bankroll is $30 when I net a profit (example: get up to 40K+ bankroll) and even during negative variance when my bankroll takes a little hit I readjust to it and bet according to my bankroll.....eventually I will get past the negative fluxes......Do you think this would work out just as well? I like th 2 hand idea as well....I just didn't know how to calculate that into risk...

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Whoops, didn't mean to post that twice. I forgot to say pen. was t 75%. And I plan on playing 3 days a week with 3-8 hr. sessions with breaks.

 

[Canceler]

Whoops, didn't mean to post that twice.

Click the Edit button, then click the Delete button.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Show us a SCORE comparison for -
1-30 all
1-12 all
1-12 out
1-6 in

I'm easy to convince. zg

Using Hi-Lo 5/6 $300 max bet
Play-all
1-30 all SCORE 36.14
1-12 all SCORE 21.78
Wong
1-6 in SCORE 49.36

 

[Kasi]

Not to jump down your throat, or anything...

Lol - I know. Call it "tough love" lol.

I just thought somewhere he said he wanted to play at a 1% ROR and maybe thinks that what he is actually playing with.

Maybe some of you suggesting spreads for his $30K roll could estimate his ROR too. Along with a game too lol. While your at it, how much bank do you think he should he take with him playing 3-8 hr sessions on a given game?

How much you planning on taking Rspiermslb?

Does nobody think spreading $25-300 in a play all 6 deck game (make up some rules and pen I guess) in general think that's a pretty high ROR?

And why his max bet always seems to stay the same no matter what spread or game he plays is a little puzzling to me.

 

[zengrifter]

And why his max bet always seems to stay the same no matter what spread or game he plays is a little puzzling to me.

Don't complicate it - let her topBet initially be 1% divided between 2hands, and adjust her spread with different minBets.

We don't need the 'OptiKasi' deck-adjustment optimized betting refinement, just yet.

One thing that is clear from the SCOREs above is that 1-12 play-all 6D is NOT effective.

1-12 (25-2x150) play-all in 2D is quite effective, however. zg

 

[EasyRhino]

1-12 (25-2x150) play-all in 2D is quite effective, however. zg

Please ensure that you either have a good act or are in a joint that doesn't care about it's money when doing this!

edit: oh wait, I've done this too, but only within the confines of my "progression system", which is sometimes limiting.

 

[zengrifter]

Please ensure that you either have a good act or are in a joint that doesn't care about it's money when doing this!

From: zengrifter | Date: March 15, 2002 | CCCafe​

Re: ZG: Please quick opinion on Andersen's "Ultimate Gambit" procedures, as it applies to 2D.​

IA's gambit is sub-optimal for most counters due to unacceptably high variance. However, I do use a similar selection of low-cost "idiot camoflauge," but I am NOT a big advocate of excesive cover for most counters - as James Grossman said, "the best cover is KISS - keep it short, stupid"​

Virtually all of the 'gambit-type' techniques for 1D, that I previously posted, are equally suited for good 2D games as well.​

Speaking of KISS, having been backed-off 3x in the past 24mos at the Golden Nugget, I had taken to short sessions there and no player tracking - my most recent session I resolved to limit to 30min, and when the pitcritter offered to track me I scowled at her, "I dont need another $5000 free dinner, I'm here to win money" and she said fine.​

Edging 33min, spreading from 1x $25 to 3x $300 I was up $4k, and coloring up to go, when the shift mgr suddenly appeared and slapped his card on the table announcing "I'm the shift mgr and YOU are no longer allowed to play BJ at ANY MGM-Mirage casino!"​

I looked up sheepishly and asked in mock sincerity "was it something I said?" The SM admonished me "save the smart remarks or I'll have security escort you off the premises!"​

I collected my short stack of purples and replied "well let me just say that it was NICE BEATING YOU!"​

-------------​

[post script - Think my 1-36 green spread was excessive? What the hell, I was barred anyway! I have played the GNugget no less than several times since the above session, one session lasting for 4 hours and through a shift-change, but, do as I say, not as I do! K.I.S.S.!]​

​

 

[Kasi]

Don't complicate it - let her topBet initially be 1% divided between 2hands, and adjust her spread with different minBets.

And, what do you estimate such ROR to be - I guess depending on how you think the spread is adjusted with diff min bets?

Possibly greater than the 1% he expressed as his desired ROR?

And what game are you talking about again? - I'm so confused as to what you are suggesting for DD vs 6D.

Please suggest some specific parameters that with a $30K roll, justify a 1-12 and 2 x 150 max bet in a DD game, despite this being completely and significantly different than a single $300 max bet as originally proposed by R...., and still have a 1% ROR.

But I am glad that you at least reduced his max $300 single-hand bet to 2 at $150. Almost sounds like the equivalent of a single-hand $200 bet. Almost sounds like a 'Opti-Kasi' deck-adjusted bet.

It sortof sounded like you were suggesting a 1-12 spread, 25 to 2x150 in some play-all double-deck game. What game are you thinking of dealt to what level? Apparently the min bet is $25. And what ROR do you think such game would have?

I have no sims so I'm just asking.

 

[EasyRhino]

I have no sims so I'm just asking.

It's good off-the-cuff advice. I was running sims on $50-$300 (single hand) doubledeck with a 30k roll, and RoR stayed below 10% (with no bet resizing on downswings), even for a DD game with crap penetration and the KO count. (S17, DAS, 50% pen).

$50-$300 - 8.85% ror, .78% advantage
$25-$300 - 3.6% ror, 1.2% advantage

Using 2x$150 as a max bet would automatically have lower variance since the bet would be spread on two hands. Win rate might be a touch lower, but no big deal.

Of course, even as I'm learning with a similar bankroll and bet spread, the downward swings can still be pretty shitty.

 

[zengrifter]

I have no sims so I'm just asking.

Just wingin it kid, just spitballin. zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

......

Well I decided I might stick to the 6 deck for a little bit and see how it goes, I'm going keep a log of everything and we'll see how I do..also spread $50-$300 backcounting ONLY, for a few months...(shoot, I have enough in comps to live there for 2 months, lol) Thanks for the help.....and getting down my throat.:whip: :laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

Well I decided I might stick to the 6 deck for a little bit and see how it goes, I'm going keep a log of everything and we'll see how I do..also spread $50-$300 backcounting ONLY, for a few months...(shoot, I have enough in comps to live there for 2 months, lol) Thanks for the help.....and getting down my throat.:whip: :laugh:

50-400 like this - (lower RoR)

50
100
100-100
200-200

The above will also work for play-all 2D with occaisional exit-wong. zg