wc610 said:
Hello everyone,
I've been a long time lurker on this site, and appreciate the fine advice and humor I find -- my affinity and skill at blackjack has increased substantially since I began to research the game.
I mainly play SD and DD games where I'm at .. and I've got a question which I don't believe I have seen addressed here in the forums (for at least as long as I've been perusing ... perhaps there is a reason for that
) ... with regards to a recent post about bringing BR to the casinos ...
I was just curious how many of you were willing to venture outside of your betting limits after a long losing session (but when you know higher cards are on the way - I guess it'd be like a hail mary) ... I don't do this often (and I don't play blackjack with a too small bankroll either), but have found that it has at least seemed like it has worked more often than it has not.
Still, for an amateur at this game, am I deluding myself? Is it bad form?
FYI, I play nickels in a state with a max bet of only 100 bucks.
Thanks for the input!
In a cool and rational moment, you selected a bankroll amount you could comfortably live with. Now, in the heat of the moment, losing hand after hand with maximum bet out, heart pounding, desirous only of a quick and satisfactory comeback, eye on your advantage, time quickly running out, you are deciding calmly, cooly, dispassionately, rationally, unemotionally, safe in your little cocoon of peace and tranquility, to change your maximum bet and by inference your bankroll size (Kelly betting) and resultant RoR (because surely you are not thinking about violating your RoR, the level of safety you carefully chose for your play)? I'm not buying it! A Hail Mary is a desperation play to win a game in the last few seconds. Have you NO CHANCE to succeed by sticking to your prescribed limits? If it is the ONLY possible way to recover your mangled bankroll, heck yeah, go for it. But if the current events are just taking you down further than you had wished, but not to your last breath, I say, stick with your original game plan.
If you lose a bundle, you lose a bundle. It was never intended to be an easy ride. It has its ups and downs, some of them steep like the Alps, but in the end, it's a train ride across those mighty mountains that rarely ends in total disaster (your did properly calculate your RoR, didn't you?). It's like the engineer on that train ride deciding to outrun the storm even though his calculations show that he is still comfortably within safety limits, unless this turns out to be the storm of the century. It's been snowing a long time, but you cannot resort to the gambler's fallacy (I'm due, the snow can't keep up forever, I "know higher cards are on the way" <your words, not mine>), and throw all your educated planning to the winds. I say categorically, "NO!"
That being said, I've done it.
It's giving in to your emotions over your intellect. It's trying to "get lucky." It's assuming all the higher cards could not possibly hit all around you but not on you, or that a disproportionate amount of high cards could not be contained behind the cut card. It is irrational. It is my practice to discipline myself against doing these things, which are not in my best interest. Remember. It is all one continuous session; winning the present session
IS NOT the goal; winning in the long run
IS the goal. Chasing my money is probably why my largest losing session has always been larger than my largest winning session.
It has the marks of a loser: When losing in positive counts, losers want to raise the ante and get even. When winning in positive counts, losers want to preserve winnings, so they lower their bet. The result: bigger losses, smaller winnings.
But don't take my word for it. Hey, you did the calculations. It's your money and your game. I'm just giving my two cents. But I've found that those reckless over-betting sessions that end well just serve to ingrain in one the wisdom of such folly. When you lose the big one, you may think differently! In the meantime, I hope you will reconsider the Hail Mary; it should not be thrown at half time or third quarter; it is properly only thrown when all other possibilities have been exhausted--the final seconds. It is not a last resort--it is THE last resort.
If you do suffer an extreme loss but did not chase your money by raising your max bet, now is the time to consider whether you want to add more cash to your bankroll (might have to postpone your next session), or to readjust your game plan to a lower betting min/max. When you are out of the heat of battle, it's time to reconsider your battle plan, not when the hordes of ugly orcs are charging you on horseback with slashing swords.
Fight gallantly, but do not overestimate your strength. A properly calculated max bet is the best way back from defeat, not creating a surge attack ala Iraq when you don't have the troops to back it up (if you do have extra reserves, then I suggest you did not properly select your bankroll size; if you undervalued your bankroll on purpose, then you designed your game plan to leave extra money on the table???). The session is only a battle, not the entire war. The better disciplined you are in sticking to a proper game plan, the more chance you have of being successful in the long run. All things being equal, Hail Mary thinking (if by that you mean increasing your max bet to quickly recover your losses, but not at the end of your bankroll) raises your RoR to unacceptable levels and should always be avoided; it's throwing the long run up for grabs!
