Having a heart for....

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
You read, you study, practice and put into practice under live conditions what you have learned about blackjack. Then reality rears it's ugly head and you lose your arse time and time again. The cards are there, just not yours and hardly make your hands or doubles or splits. The end result is a sound thrashing at any table you play and you have to wonder if the bj gods are taking it out on you. You sit across the table from two numbskulls that don't have a clue and you sit third sinking lower and lower in your seat. They bet high in negative counts and play about as screwy a game as it gets and they still kick butt. I read and play the game for the love of it but sometimes a person has to wonder if they have a heart for it after this bad of a session. blackchip jim:cry:
 

Preston

Well-Known Member
Frustrating it may be but you also can figure that those lucky ploppies are losing their ass every other time they're at the casino. You're playing the odds and the math is in your favor, you at least stand a chance.

Last night I had one of the worst experiences in a single shoe. I was doing a 1-6 spread at a double deck game.

The count went up to +23. I was ready to bet my entire bankroll with a count like that but I kept it to a 6 unit max bet.

What happens? I get 16 13 15 ,etc. Dealer gets all the 20's.

After that kind of **** I felt fortunate that I left only down $175.
 

AnIrishmannot2brite

Well-Known Member
Preston said:
Frustrating it may be but you also can figure that those lucky ploppies are losing their ass every other time they're at the casino. You're playing the odds and the math is in your favor, you at least stand a chance.

Last night I had one of the worst experiences in a single shoe. I was doing a 1-6 spread at a double deck game.

The count went up to +23. I was ready to bet my entire bankroll with a count like that but I kept it to a 6 unit max bet.

What happens? I get 16 13 15 ,etc. Dealer gets all the 20's.

After that kind of **** I felt fortunate that I left only down $175.
Smart move man.
 

Canceler

Well-Known Member
blackchipjim said:
You sit across the table from two numbskulls that don't have a clue and... they still kick butt.
I'll bet these are the people that buy in for $20 and play all afternoon, while I burn through $200 in ten minutes.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
The AP's advantage is enough to open up a casino. The only trouble is, casinos have 10,000 customers and more, 99% of which are ploppies, whereas APs have only one customer, the casino itself, and it plays a consistent game. My philosophy is to hang in there, if possible play only with a comfortable RoR, and trust the math that it will work out. Also, you might want to seek other forms of advantaged play. After all, it can't hurt to have more than one thing going for you. Good luck!
 

glovesetc

Well-Known Member
The bottom line is very simple

If you do not play alot of blackjack - meaning hours and hours day in and day out the luck factor can beat you from a casinos standpoint . Whereas a ploppy can also win if the luck factor is with him as well . BS and counting help only if you literally play the game full time. The sims are based on 100's of thousands if not millions of hands . Playing BS and counting will help keep your losses down over the short run if you are say only playing 2 times a month for like maybe 4-5 hours or so per session . you can make every right play in the book and still lose and you can also make every wrong play and win as well . Saw a ploppy last week start with $500.00 at a green minimum table and 3 hours later walked away with $18,000.00 in purple chips and he was not hitting any hard 16's and only doubled when the dealer had to draw !!! Only cards he ever split was aces and once he had 8's and stuck and saved the whole table as the dealer broke on his 13 . Go figure the game out but enjoy and have fun and have great food , see great shows , and go to hot bars !!!!:) :grin: ;) :cool2:
 

AnIrishmannot2brite

Well-Known Member
Canceler said:
I'll bet these are the people that buy in for $20 and play all afternoon, while I burn through $200 in ten minutes.
What is your table minimum?

I mean i caught myself doing the same thing until recently. Even at the $5 to $200 tables. Was betting too high based upon my count.

Now it seems that the lower stakes tables with good rules are doing well for me. I get the feeling I could play for a couple hours and even without much luck at least not spend my available roll. Truly bad luck will happen from time to time though.

Then there was last week when EVERYTHING went my way.

Anyway at these lower limit tables i play with confidence and a lot less fear. And I want to thank all the contributors here for their help.
 

rollem411

Well-Known Member
Preston said:
Frustrating it may be but you also can figure that those lucky ploppies are losing their ass every other time they're at the casino. You're playing the odds and the math is in your favor, you at least stand a chance.

Last night I had one of the worst experiences in a single shoe. I was doing a 1-6 spread at a double deck game.

The count went up to +23. I was ready to bet my entire bankroll with a count like that but I kept it to a 6 unit max bet.

What happens? I get 16 13 15 ,etc. Dealer gets all the 20's.

After that kind of **** I felt fortunate that I left only down $175.
Same happened to me as probably to many. I'm down in AC and wong into a TC of >+10 only to see my 4 of 5 max bets lose to dealer 20. And it sucks when you know hitting that 15 is going to bust you so you have to stand, watch someone else bust, feel good about your play, and lose to the dealer. Then the people around you are hitting the cards and the count drops back to neutral and you gotta start all over again.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
Those BJ Gods are testing you

blackchipjim said:
You read, you study, practice and put into practice under live conditions what you have learned about blackjack. Then reality rears it's ugly head and you lose your arse time and time again. The cards are there, just not yours and hardly make your hands or doubles or splits. The end result is a sound thrashing at any table you play and you have to wonder if the bj gods are taking it out on you. You sit across the table from two numbskulls that don't have a clue and you sit third sinking lower and lower in your seat. They bet high in negative counts and play about as screwy a game as it gets and they still kick butt. I read and play the game for the love of it but sometimes a person has to wonder if they have a heart for it after this bad of a session. blackchip jim:cry:
You know all the math. You know that with a 1+% edge you can easily still lose. You have read all about variance and standard deviation. Still when that session from hell pops its ugly head out, you are being challenged and tested besides losing a chunk of bankroll. Will you fade away? Will you fail to spread enough in a great count, fearing a repeat performance, or will you steam and overbet trying to get your money back? These are the challenges that the blackjack gods have given to you.
Unfortunately, no matter how long you play and no matter how good your game is, these situations will periodically return and test you again.

I mentioned a recent session in another thread, worth repeating in part here.
I know the shuffle card will come out in a well penetrated game with a very high count. There are two other players and I put two max bets out on the table. Player 1 gets blackjack, player 2 gets blackjack, I get a 17 and 19 which both lose to a dealer 20. I knew the right cards were coming out, but I can not tell just in what configuration they will hit each spot, so I lost this time. Why did I not get blackjack? Why did I not get the 20 and the dealer get the 17? Why, why, why? Inside, you seeth but take your loss with the understanding that it is negative variance and experience tells you that your time will come. Outside, if the shuffle card has not come out and the count is still very high, I will be a compulsive steaming maniac to the observer. If the shuffle card has come out and I want to play the next shoe, I will be the wounded guy getting himself under control and trying not to bet too much right away. If I do not want to play: Then I am still the almost wild steamer, I take a ton of cash from my hand, get ready to put it on the felt and say, "No, I got to take a break before I dump it all," and leave the table shaking my head, perhaps talking to myself.
In other words, as long as you are paying you might as well earn longevity by convincing a few people that you are some kind of compulsive steamer who at times does try to control himself when down but often does not succeed.
I know a couple of these kind of sessions have earned me a reputation that it took one casino many years of occassional play and almost 6 figures of profit, before they figured out that they were better off asking me to no longer play there. So believe it or not, it can be an opportunity.

ihate17
 

Canceler

Well-Known Member
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
What is your table minimum?
$10 table. As I'm sure you know, just one shoe with a good count, but bad cards, can make $200 vanish quickly, even if you are betting properly.
 
ihate17 said:
Will you fail to spread enough in a great count, fearing a repeat performance, or will you steam and overbet trying to get your money back?
ihate17
steaming/chasing losses may not be that bad of an idea actually.. i am aware that chasing your losses is bad when you dont have the advantage, but chasing your losses when your counting gives you an even greater advantage.. if you spread 1-6 and have a x% advantage, and then start spreading 1-20, your advantage would probably be 2x or more, altho RoR would go up as well
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
SilentBob420BMFJ said:
if you spread 1-6 and have a x% advantage, and then start spreading 1-20, your advantage would probably be 2x or more, altho RoR would go up as well
The problem is that your advantage at each TC does not go up. It is the same no matter what your bets are. That is why you need to size your bets properly and not steam. If you are betting more than 2x the optimal bet then your ROR is 100% even though you have an advantage over the casino.

And remember, using a bigger bet spread gives you a bigger EV (not necessarily a bigger advantage, although many people use the two terms interchangeably) because you are betting less in negative situations, not betting more in positive situations. If you increase your spread by increasing your max bet then you are taking a huge risk for a small reward.

-Sonny-
 
Sonny said:
The problem is that your advantage at each TC does not go up. It is the same no matter what your bets are. That is why you need to size your bets properly and not steam. If you are betting more than 2x the optimal bet then your ROR is 100% even though you have an advantage over the casino.

And remember, using a bigger bet spread gives you a bigger EV (not necessarily a bigger advantage, although many people use the two terms interchangeably) because you are betting less in negative situations, not betting more in positive situations. If you increase your spread by increasing your max bet then you are taking a huge risk for a small reward.

-Sonny-
obviously the risk would skyrocket if your betting more, which is what i said, but i dont agree with "huge risk small reward" as the reward would not be small at all, but the risk would be huge.. imagine spreading 5-20 instead of 1-8, your EV would be much greater, and as long as you were in positive variance, it would be a huge reward, of course if you just kept betting more and more you would be screwed.. overall, of course this is a bad idea, im just saying your EV would be huge.. damn RoR!
 
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