Hi-Lim or regular?

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm getting ready to play a $50 shoe game, and was wondering whether I'd be better off in the hi-lim pit or just a the $25 tables.

Here's a rundown of the situation:

Hi-Lim advantages:
Not crowded
The size of the action will not draw attention
Shoe/cut is 6/1.25 instead of 8/1.25

Hi-Lim disadvantages:
No mid-shoe entry
May have more surveillance

Regular advantages:
Can come and go as I please
Can drop down to $25 if I want
May have less surveillance

Regular disadvantages:
Tables usually too crowded to Wong around or play two spots
Large action may draw attention
Shoe/cut is 8/1.25 instead of 6/1.25

So what does everyone think, given these parameters is it worth it to go into the hi-limit area? And is a $50 counter more likely to get busted in there?

 

[SammyBoy]

The few times I played in high limit rooms the tables were hawked over by the pit stiffs big time.

 

[Felix Rue-de-Guerre]

Monkey,

With all due respect. If you are staked to play at this level. You could spend a week in Las Vegas for the cost of one of your top bets. This shouldn't be an issue, you should never need to contemplate playing another 8-decker again.

Wait a minute... you didn't buy one of those timeshares in Detroit from that guy with the red skin and horns, did you?

-Felix

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Your 8 deck game has deeper penetration bro. If you are spreading from $50 to $600 you're set, but if you are only betting $50 and droping to $25 you are wasting your time IMO. I don't think you gave enough info in your post. Please clarify.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Well let's see, I know the percent penetration is better with 8/1.25 than 6/1.25, but you're not going to get as many good counts, if I am figuring this correctly.

Let's say a shoe had 100 decks and was dealt down to 1. Sure you get 99% penetration, but you are not going to get any desirable counts until most of the shoe is gone and on average you are going to spend the first 80 or 90 decks playing at negative EV. That's why if I have to choose between the two I'd rather play the 6/1.25 because in the 8 deck the first two decks are usually wasted anyway. Plus the incremental BS advantage you get with a smaller number of decks, tiny but worth something. On the other hand, there is more playing and less shuffling with the 8 deck and the added hands per hour are probably worth more than the 0.02% added EV.

If I play a $50 game, I'm probably going to spread $50-$500 with a Wong out at TC=-5 (HO2). If I'm at a $25 table I can drop down to $25 somewhere between TC=-2 and -4. So that is more like a 1:20 spread. Wonging out is really necessary in these kinds of shoe games where a bad count can stick around for a long time.

 

[Feep]

Get a team together and wong the hell out of the eight deck game.

Feep

 

[Rob McGarvey]

"Well let's see, I know the percent penetration is better with 8/1.25 than 6/1.25, but you're not going to get as many good counts, if I am figuring this correctly."

84% vs 79% is not much difference. The greatest advantage 8 has over 6 is the lack of a proper shuffle.

"Let's say a shoe had 100 decks and was dealt down to 1. Sure you get 99% penetration...."

An extreme example to make your point.

"Plus the incremental BS advantage you get with a smaller number of decks, tiny but worth something."

The 5% more penetration is far more important than the dif in EV.

"On the other hand, there is more playing and less shuffling with the 8 deck and the added hands per hour are probably worth more than the 0.02% added EV."

It is said you need 7 shuffles to make a single deck random (sic). 7x6=42 7x8=56 times. 2 is never enough.

"If I play a $50 game, I'm probably going to spread $50-$500 with a Wong out at TC=-5 (HO2). If I'm at a $25 table I can drop down to $25 somewhere between TC=-2 and -4. So that is more like a 1:20 spread. Wonging out is really necessary in these kinds of shoe games where a bad count can stick around for a long time."

IMO your spread is equal to the diff between your bet at +1TC and your max bet at +5TC. You can bet $5 at 0 and your spread is not 1:100. You are still playing a winning game with Hi Opt II, so that is what really matters. I suggest to wong in at +2 with $50, bet $25 below that to -2 then split, and go into your spread from there. What %BR per TC are you betting?

 

[alienated]

Actually, Automatic Monkey has been very insightful here. DD' answered a similar question recently on Green Chip, pointing out that a 5/6 game is better than a 7/8 game, because there is less waiting for the good counts. DD' also mentioned that this fact surprises many people, which is not surprising, perhaps. ;-) I think Automatic Monkey shows great instincts to recognise this. DD''s answer was assuming a straight count game and play all. As you mention, Rob, shuffling issues might introduce other factors, but for a straight count game (and holding all other factors equal - eg, degree of scrutiny, feasible bet spread, wongability, etc), the 6 decker is better. However, the scrutiny question may be the most important in the present context. It's difficult to say before Automatic Monkey actually visits the casino, unless he can get in email contact with someone who has knowledge of the casino in question.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

The Master

has spoken! ;> Great to see you Ali. Did you get my math question that I sent to you? I think it is in your yahoo mailbox.

 

[alienated]

Cut it out ;-)

Rob, I haven't received your message regarding the math question. I don't think I have a yahoo box. (?) Would you mind emailing the question to me? (Mind you, if it's too mathematical, it may require a mathematician to answer it. ;-) )

Regards,
alienated

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Cut it out ;-)

You have a [email protected].. Can you send me your REAL emial? It's pretty simple, you'll run rings around like Saturn. Me, I'm just a Uranus with math...laugh That's why I continually overbet my bankroll and get away with it. Soon it will be so big we'll all get sucked into it and live happily ever after. That's what E=MC 2 means right? ;>

[email protected]

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Spreading and Wonging for shoes

Good points. I bring about $5K with me to the casino to play quarters but I can get much more if necessary. I'll probably scale it directly and bring $10K if I'm going to play a $50 BU.

My spread maxes out at +7 (HO2) which is like +4 in High-Low. I know you are a DD player mostly and most of the BJ theory out there was written by and for Vegas players who never have to deal with a 6D or 8D shoe, but that is all that exists on the East Coast so we have to live with it. We can't help the EV very much but we can control the variance to a degree and that's why I'm a little more conservative with the big bet. You can play 6D all night and not get a big bet out at all, or maybe just once or twice, and that plays hell with your variance.

One thing I am going to do though is Wong out more aggressively. Wonging in is just not an option around here for a solo player. Sometimes my Wong-out point will happen with only 1-2 hands left in the shoe, and I'm reluctant to leave before the shuffle. This is especially true when I've found a fast dealer with good pen. If I switch tables, chances are I will end up with a slower dealer with worse pen and that will cost me more than playing those last 1-2 hands. Maybe I will Wong out at -3 (HO2) instead. This will be nice because I don't know any playing indexes under -2 and I will get more opportunities to Wong out advantageously.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Spreading and Wonging for shoes

That is the big advantage of Hi Opt II and other 2 level counts, gets you into and out of a game quickly. I experimented with 3 level counts and found that if I just adjusted the check out to -2 and tweeked my bets up a notch the Hi Opt II killed all of the 3 level counts using +3 for the 5 and the -1 in other places between the 9 and the Ace for Zen III Zen III Maximum (Z3M) and Hi Opt III. All on paper at 10m hands a shot....a million life times in a matter of hours...smile

I am slowly realizing who all of you guys out there REALLY are, and we aren't in Kansas anymore Dorothy. smile Goodtaknowya, goodtaknowya, goodtaknowya!

 

[eyesfor21]

forget the 8dk you will lose

Fly somewhere decent and play real blackjack,cheap flights
are allover the place now.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: forget the 8dk you will lose

"My people" got in touch with me and it costs far too much to fly from Toronto to LV to play BJ. I can beat 8 deck if I find a trackable game, use a few dirty tricks (little white lies), but once again, I don't need to leave home to make money playing BJ. For me, most of this is totally academic now. I do enjoy talking about the way I used to beat felt BJ. It's like when you get an award, most people thank the same "person" first, BJ is that person in this sense.

Forget 8 deck? How about just forget it period?
To quote Arnold Snyder "You can't win."

Rob

 

[eyesfor21]

Rob, what about Montreal-no?

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: Rob, what about Montreal-no?

NO to someone that asked me if they should drive from NY to play the game. Told them to play Turningstone ot Akwasasne instead. If you live in Mount Royal, sure, that is if you can't afford a computer and a phone line. ;> If you have the bankroll to play 8 deck you have enough to get a smart setup for playing online.