Hi-Opt II (Risk Averse) Indices
- Thread starter FLASH
- Start date
zengrifter
Banned
even with RA applied to only 10...
... indices you will glean 98% of all available RA advantage. So you do NOT need any nore than this.zg
... indices you will glean 98% of all available RA advantage. So you do NOT need any nore than this.zg
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Sure
I'm on the road right now but I think I can help you. Not sure what you mean by "risk averse", these are the plays I use and I've eliminated all plays that give more risk than benefit. This is for S17, DOA, DAS, LSR.
Hit/Stand
12 vs 2--- 5
12 vs 3--- 2
12 vs 4--- 1
12 vs 5--- -2
12 vs 6--- -1
13 vs 2--- -1
13 vs 3--- -3
13 vs 4--- -5
16 vs 9--- 7
16 vs X--- 1
15 vs X--- 6
14 vs X--- 14
Hard DD
11 vs 2--- 2
10 vs 9--- -2
10 vs X--- 8
10 vs A--- 6
9 vs 2--- 2
9 vs 3--- -1
9 vs 7--- 6
8 vs 5--- 6
8 vs 6--- 4
Soft DD
A8 vs 5--- 3
A8 vs 6--- 2
A7 vs 2--- 1
A4 vs 4--- 1
Split
XX vs 4--- 11
XX vs 5--- 8
XX vs 6--- 7
Surrender
16 vs 9--- 0
16 vs X--- -4
16 vs A--- 0
15 vs 9--- 4
15 vs X--- 0
15 vs A--- 4
14 vs X--- 4
13 vs X--- 11
88 vs X--- 1
I'm on the road right now but I think I can help you. Not sure what you mean by "risk averse", these are the plays I use and I've eliminated all plays that give more risk than benefit. This is for S17, DOA, DAS, LSR.
Hit/Stand
12 vs 2--- 5
12 vs 3--- 2
12 vs 4--- 1
12 vs 5--- -2
12 vs 6--- -1
13 vs 2--- -1
13 vs 3--- -3
13 vs 4--- -5
16 vs 9--- 7
16 vs X--- 1
15 vs X--- 6
14 vs X--- 14
Hard DD
11 vs 2--- 2
10 vs 9--- -2
10 vs X--- 8
10 vs A--- 6
9 vs 2--- 2
9 vs 3--- -1
9 vs 7--- 6
8 vs 5--- 6
8 vs 6--- 4
Soft DD
A8 vs 5--- 3
A8 vs 6--- 2
A7 vs 2--- 1
A4 vs 4--- 1
Split
XX vs 4--- 11
XX vs 5--- 8
XX vs 6--- 7
Surrender
16 vs 9--- 0
16 vs X--- -4
16 vs A--- 0
15 vs 9--- 4
15 vs X--- 0
15 vs A--- 4
14 vs X--- 4
13 vs X--- 11
88 vs X--- 1
gorilla player
Well-Known Member
I believe...
that what he meant was indices that have less "risk". For example, say that doubling a hand has an EV of +.17, while hitting has an EV of +.16. The "hit" is more "risk averse" as you have 1/2 the money riding on the outcome of that particular hand.
There are several hands that fit this, most of which are of the form that cause you to increase your bet (doubling, splitting). For counters, this happens on the index point for a particular BS deviation. IE suppose you run a set of sims and discover that you go from hit to double at a TC of X. At X-1 the EV for hitting is barely better than the EV for doubling. At X, the EV for doubling is slightly better, but "slightly" being the operative word. If you flip a coin with 10 bucks on the table, there is less risk than if you flip it with 20 bucks. Even if there is something odd about the coin that makes it come up heads 51 times out of 101 flips.
If that was obvious, sorry I broke in. I like the idea of risk-averse myself, as the variance can already go nuts.
that what he meant was indices that have less "risk". For example, say that doubling a hand has an EV of +.17, while hitting has an EV of +.16. The "hit" is more "risk averse" as you have 1/2 the money riding on the outcome of that particular hand.
There are several hands that fit this, most of which are of the form that cause you to increase your bet (doubling, splitting). For counters, this happens on the index point for a particular BS deviation. IE suppose you run a set of sims and discover that you go from hit to double at a TC of X. At X-1 the EV for hitting is barely better than the EV for doubling. At X, the EV for doubling is slightly better, but "slightly" being the operative word. If you flip a coin with 10 bucks on the table, there is less risk than if you flip it with 20 bucks. Even if there is something odd about the coin that makes it come up heads 51 times out of 101 flips.
If that was obvious, sorry I broke in. I like the idea of risk-averse myself, as the variance can already go nuts.