high count -- is it really that good ??

[KO_counter]

i am a newbie of course. what i am wondering is if anyone has ever thought that maybe counting cards is not that much of an advantage ? ...... because the deck is considered good if the count is high. but doesnt that mean the deck is better for the dealer too ? no matter if the deck is good or bad the dealer is still playing with the same deck.

so if i have to work with bad cards(low count) so does he, and if there are good cards(high count) left in the deck .... he will draw them too.

just wondering because i am getting into counting but have always thought this.

say the count is high and i bet my max --- i get two tens(good cards) and the dealer gets blackjack -- i lose --- but the count was high

i just think i may be betting my max at the same time that the dealer can draw great cards too, which sort of equals out my chances of winning.

 

[The Mayor]

>i am a newbie of course. what i am wondering is if anyone has ever thought that maybe counting cards is not that much of an advantage ? ...... because the deck is considered good if the count is high. but doesnt that mean the deck is better for the dealer too ?

Yes, but the dealer doesn't get paid 3:2 on BJ, or get to double down, or split, or stand on a 16 vs. 9, or choose to hit/stand on a 12 vs. 6, or change his bet size. These are how we take advantage of the high count, it is this asymmetry that makes counting win.

>just wondering because i am getting into counting but have always thought this. say the count is high and i bet my max --- i get two tens(good cards) and the dealer gets blackjack -- i lose --- but the count was high i just think i may be betting my max at the same time that the dealer can draw great cards too, which sort of equals out my chances of winning.

Read, study... read, study, read, study...

--Mayor

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Compound Interest

You can look at playing BJ in a similar way as you look at compound interest, with a few twists. BJ you have swings which can put you well ahead of or well behind your expected take. You advantage is around 1% for the average player, and the more you can play the more you compound the effect that 1% has on your BR. In time 1% of $100 turns into 1% of $1000, 1% of $10,000, 1% of $100,000.

Now if you can find a 5% advantage this compounding is astronomically increased. By finding opportunities like this you can cut back the time spent compounding, or you can go at it until you have enough money that you no longer need to work anymore. You can also eliminate the swings in your BR, a big point to new counters/players.

It is not uncommon for an onLine player to win as much money in one month as a full time table pounder does in an entire year simply because of hands per hour, zero travel, zero heat, and an advantage of 5% with an expected ROI of over 100%, sometimes as high as 400%.

Time is money. Shorten the time and increase your % if possible.

 

[BradRod]

high count ---- very good, indeed !

Take it on faith from those here who have played an advantage game over a considerable period of time. It is a long run endeavor and until you have enough of your own experience faith in those you trust is what will keep you in the game. ALso, as the mayor recommendes read to get an understanding of the theory and expectation behind it. It does work and it does pay off in the long run.

 

[FLA Player]

I am in the Phoenix airport after a 12 hour mini-trip wonging at high counts- I had maybe my highlight of my short AP career- Wonged into a 6 deck at Palms with a couple of college age kids betting 100-500 chips.... I won 7 hands in a row (2 naturals) and played insurance correctly on the last hand- walked away with $550 in less then 2 minutes.... I entered at a TC of +3, and it took a lot of pain in the ass walking around and standing and concentrating before finding that shoe... but when it hits like that it's sweet- LTC would have been proud- the college guys spending daddys money were pissed- what's better then that? Flat betting at negative counts and staying at one table is hard on your BR, wonging is hard physically and mentally, but it is your best option- negative counts simply favor the dealer, as the Mayor said

FLA Player

PS- last minute ticket on Swest Phoenix to Vegas was $180

 

[The Mayor]

Just so you're sure ... you could have lost that $550 just as easily. You got that, right?

Congrats on the win.

--Mayor

 

[suicyco maniac]

Yes your advantage is small. The main reason that high counts favor you is when you get a BJ you get paid 3:2 and when the dealer gets BJ you only pay him 1:1. You should be able to see if you each traded BJs every other hand you would come out way ahead. Some other factors are the dealer cannot split or double you can, and the dealer has to hit all stiffs even when the deck is high in tens increasing his chance of busting. All this being said the Mayor is right STUDY STUDY STUDY then PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE!!!!!!!!! SM

 

[NorCalBJ]

I am pretty new to counting. I have been familiar with it just a couple of years, and been putting it into practice in a Casino for about 8 months. I have to say that I was getting close to losing faith in the beginning. I thought the way that you did. I knew why the player had an advantage on positive counts (3:2, DD, PS...ect) but did not see it paying off. But I gave it time and the probabilities caught up.
The first time that I really cleaned up on one afternoon was all on high count wins. I had lost about 30 units over two hours one afternoon, and then had a good run of positive counts, got several BJ's and DD's, and won about 40 units in thirty minutes. There is also something very satisfying in taking insurance on a very positive count and coming out even as the entire table of ploppies lose their bet. (I don't root for ploppies to lose, but it is nice being rewarded for not being one)
I have had similar experiences since then, and as I improve with practice, am winning a little more than 60% of the time I go to the Casino.
I am still trying to learn as much as I can and practice hours everyday. Listen to the experts (there are many on this board) and take it from another newbie like me, your patience and faith will be rewarded.

 

[Cadillac]

you must play for the long run. think about flipping a coin. there's a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. the casino's edge in bj is roughly 52/48 b/c of the fact that you must play your hand first, etc, etc.
if you flip that bj coin 100 times, do you expect it to land exactly 52 heads and 48 tails? no. some days the casino will win 72 flips and you'll win 28. some days you'll win 57 and the casino 43. and so on. that's what's so ingenious about the casino games. you get to win alot.......but in the long run, they win a little more.
the counter can turn that edge around to about 49/51 or so. then it's the same deal. some days you win, some days you lose. it's a long run proposition(that's what they tell me anyway)........and a very interesting hobby.

 

[FLA Player]

YES- and I did lose on high counts on 2 other sessions (not trying to make it sound easy or something, just because you have a high count doesn't guarantee a win)- and losing sucks.

Thanks Mayor,

FLA Player

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Re: high count ---- very good, indeed !

I understand what you are saying, it really needs no faith to understand this. I think you all understand that a 5% edge is far superior to a 1% edge, and know how that will inversely effect the amount of time required to go from 0 to infinity and beyond. My Dad used to tell me about starting with on penny then get two pennies, then the next day you get 4, etc. Now we can do it with nickels, or what you call a five cent coin. Once in a while you find a dime or quarter tossed into the mix.