High Count Loses

[Count Luckula]

I was in AC this past weekend playing 8D DOA DAS. As always, the city is loaded with ploppies and very few people who even play good basic strategy along with giving you bad advice. At the first casino, I was playing $10 min spreading 1-10 on a 6.5/8 game. There was about 4 decks left and a running count of +21 (TC +5). I bet $75 on two hands. One hand 8-8 and the other hand 10-4 against a dealer 6. I split the 8-8 and draw a two on the first hand. I am feeling really good about this double and retrieve $200 out of my pocket and place another $75. I draw a ten and the dealer hits the next 8. ANOTHER 8! I split again and draw a 6. The final 8 draws a ten. I now have $150-20,$75-14,$75-18,and $75-14. The dealer flips the hole card and its a 10. Everybody is anxiously awaiting another 10 when it happens...a five comes flying out and suddenly I feel like the guy who loses in a game of three card monty. After losing this hand I was down about 100 units which is where I ended up for the weekend. I did find a game that was 7.0/8.0 pen, but couldn't seem to hold onto the chips after my winning streaks. I had fun regardless of lossing and I am still on the plus side overall so I guess I should be happy that I am winning in the long run.

I have one question, is there some sort of factor you can add into the true count based on the number of decks left. I have a friend who likes to only bet more when there is less 4 decks remaining. What is the proper strategy based on monte carlo runs?

 

[zengrifter]

there is NO such formula...

... and sometimes your trip profit/loss will be detirmined by a single session, or even a single round! zg

 

[Abraham de Moivre]

Welcome to the game

One of the reasons I won't play an 8 deck game. There are just too many cards. When you start out with 416 cards (32 of them being Fives), anything can happen. Even if you have a TC=+10, probably there are still about 7 or 8 Fives left to ruin your day. In a single deck game, after the dealer has hit his 16 for 21 four times, he 100% won't be getting anymore Fives. About the only thing that would be of interest in your story is: What SUIT was the Five? ; > )

In answer to your question, Yes, there is a factor depending on the number of decks remaining. It is called the floating advantage. However, this difference is so small, they don't make chips with a small enough denomination, to adjust your bet accordingly. Besides, you would look silly betting $79.995 instead of $80. This floating advantage would only come into effect when you got into the last remaining deck of the 8 deck shoe. Let me know when you find that cut.

Something to consider:
The dealer pulling a miracle play in a high count is all part of the game, get used to it. ANY and ALL of the time you either win a lot, or lose a lot, it will be in a high count. This only make sense, because that is when you have a lot of money bet.

It is almost impossible to lose $200 by losing 200 $1 hands in a row. It is very easy to lose $200 on one high count hand of $200 bet, which you have a 2% advantage on (you will lose the bet 49 times, compared to the 51 times you will win it).

That is why you need a really big bankroll to play this 8 deck game. You have to withstand the 49x$200 losses in order to reap the 51x$200 winnings.

 

[hammer]

Re: Welcome to the game

and do not play more than one hand on 4 or more decks.
and do not play 8decks ever.

 

[The Mayor]

As the number of decks decreases you can very gradually (VERY GRADUALLY) increase your bets at the same TC. Thus a TC of +4 can be used for a max bet with 1.5 decks remaining, when you might have a TC of +5 at the top of the shoe for a max bet. This is known as the "Floating Advantage", and is discussed at length in Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, 2nd Ed.

--Mayor